Small Craft Advisory 46, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
553 AM AKST Thu Jan 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A major pattern change is underway with a digging trough over the
north-central Pacific and an amplifying downstream ridge moving
over the Gulf and Southcentral. A deep surface low with leading
warm front is tracking northward toward the Alaska Peninsula. An
atmospheric river brings heavy precipitation to Southcentral today
through Friday. Initially, precipitation will begin as snow,
transitioning to a rain/snow mix and freezing rain as much warmer
air moves in, before switching to all rain. Rain falling on cold
snow covered roads and surfaces will lead to hazardous travel
conditions. There is also potential for localized flooding and/or
ponding, especially if drains are blocked by snow and ice. Strong
winds will accompany the heavy precipitation, especially for the
Gulf coastal waters, Kenai Peninsula, and the typical gaps such as
Turnagain Arm/Anchorage and Eagle River Hillsides, Knik Arm, and
the Copper River. Winds will spread inland Friday.

Colder air will move back in on Friday, leading to any lingering
precipitation transitioning back to snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday night)...

For Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula, Winter Weather
Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect as heavy snow,
blowing snow, freezing rain, and rain move in through Friday.
Please see our products for additional details.

Biggest changes overnight were to bring in precipitation more
quickly to Southwest Alaska. Much of the precipitation now looks
to move in before the warm air does, which means that more
precipitation than initially anticipated is forecast to fall as
snow. At the same time, models have continued to trend warmer with
surface temperatures, meaning that any freezing rain should be
relatively short-lived for Bristol Bay. Additionally hazards to
watch for: (a) heavy rain on top of snow or frozen ground could
lead to ponding or even flooding, especially along the Pacific
side of the Alaska Peninsula; (b) frigid wind chills continue for
Kuskokwim Delta through the morning, and for the Pribilof Islands;
(c) west to southwesterly winds wrapping back around the low and
into Southwest Alaska could bring another round of blowing snow,
especially where winds will be strongest for Kuskokwim Delta.

While our primary focus has been on the storm moving to Southwest
Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula today and tomorrow, another strong
North Pacific low looks to move up into the Bering Sea for Friday,
bringing strong winds. By Saturday, a weaker low moves up into
Southwest Alaska/Alaska Peninsula and, depending on surface
temperatures in Southwest Alaska, could bring a slight chance for
another round of freezing rain. All told, an active and southerly
storm track spells more warm and wet conditions as we head into
the weekend.

-KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

A ridge of high pressure starts to build across the Gulf and
mainland Alaska. Southerly flow becomes the predominant weather
feature across the Aleutians and through the Bering Sea as a broad
trough settles near Kamchatka and the western Bering Sea.
Embedded within the wide swath of southerly flow, weak surface
lows may nudge as far east as the western Gulf of Alaska and
Kodiak Island. Southwest Alaska could get additional snow and/or
wintry mix through Sunday. However, most of the vigorous systems
will be coming from the North Pacific and projected to track
through the Aleutians and the Bering Sea. Specific details with
the models differ with the strength and timing of each system.
Periods of gale force winds (39 to 54 mph) will likely frequent
the Aleutians and the Bering Sea with each surface low that passes
northward. Gusts to storm force (at least 55 mph) will be
possible Sunday afternoon through the overnight period into Monday
morning and again with another trailing low on Tuesday.

Warmer air moving in this weekend will continue to feed into
Alaska from the Pacific with every successive low moving north.
Even Southcentral can expect some warming temperatures. Southern
mainland Alaska can expect this weekend to begin above normal for
this time of year, then Southcentral will trend to a more
moderated and seasonal temperature by the middle of next week. Any
clear skies could potentially lead to inverted temperatures with
height (warming at higher elevations compared to the surface),
especially toward the Copper Basin and surrounding terrain where
the ridge axis is projected to comfortably sit. Southwest Alaska
and westward, odds however, is leaning more towards slightly
above normal temperatures.

Rux

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Expect light northerly winds at the surface through today.
Winds look to increase across the Chugach Mountains this morning
with low level wind shear possible over the terminal starting
around 21Z. With northerly winds remaining over the terminal,
directional shear potential will more than likely remain until Fri
morning. The limiting factor will be the depth of northerly winds
and the altitude level of the wind shear. Snow becomes
increasingly likely Thu morning after 12Z. There may be a break in
the precipitation Thu afternoon, but chances for a wintry mix
increase again Fri after 06Z.

&&