Gale Warning 74, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
549 AM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The well-advertised winter storm is on track, with a myriad of
precipitation types falling across Southcentral overnight. The
warm front associated with a strong area of low pressure tracking
from Bristol Bay to Nunivak Island this morning continues to lift
northward from near Prince William Sound. The 12z upper air
sounding from PANC shows southeasterly flow in the lower levels of
the atmosphere veering to the southwest farther aloft. This
southerly flow is also tapping into an abundance of moisture
originating near Hawaii, with the sounding showing a near
saturated atmospheric column with a precipitable water value of
0.70". Looking through historical data, it appears that the max
value for this date is 0.61", so this system is likely advecting
copious amounts of moisture to Southcentral for what is typically
observed this time of year.

Given the advancing warm front and gusty southerly winds across
parts of the coast and interior yesterday, temperatures remain at
or above freezing for many locations early this morning. This has
resulted in rain reaching all the way into the Copper River
Valley. Rain and/or freezing rain is also falling across the
Anchorage Bowl, Matanuska Valley, and across most of the Kenai
Peninsula. 2.5" to 3.5" of rain (and melted snow) has fallen
across the southern Kenai Peninsula, and for Cordova, and up to
6" of for Portage.

Farther inland locations such as Talkeetna, and across sheltered
locations such as Valdez, the precipitation has remained all snow
overnight with more significant accumulations for these
locations. For warmer areas, rain and/or freezing rain falling
onto frozen and snow covered roadways will continue to be the
main ice hazard this morning.

A cold front attached to the aforementioned low is draped over the
AKPen and southern Kodiak Island this morning. This front will
drive east across Cook Inlet and the Kenai Peninsula through the
morning hours. As it does, the combination of significant pressure
rises and cold air advection aloft will drive a sudden increase in
southwesterly winds from Homer north and east to Anchorage, the
Mat-Valley, Talkeetna, and Glennallen. Any mixed precipitation
will likely quickly change back to snow with the potential for a
quick burst of snow and/or graupel (snow pellets) on conjunction
with frontal passage and strong winds. The combination of falling
temperatures, snow squalls, and gusty winds may cause blowing snow
and refreezing road surfaces, leading to a period of potentially
hazardous conditions mid to late Friday morning. By mid to late
afternoon, the front will be quickly exiting the region, leading
to diminishing winds and clearing skies.

An additional weaker storm will move in on Saturday, bringing
another round of a light wintry mix of precipitation to the
eastern Kenai, Kodiak and the Susitna Valley.

-CJ/TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday night)...

Warnings and Advisories in effect:
* Blizzard Warning for Kuskokwim Delta through this afternoon
* Winter Weather Advisory for Kuskokwim Valley through this
  afternoon

Cold air wrapping back around the low has quickly dropped
temperatures across Southwest Alaska and is quickly changing
precipitation back to snow. Strong, gusty winds with this cold air
is also leading to areas of blowing snow, with visibilities below
1 mile reported at several locations this morning. In particular,
blizzard conditions are currently being observed along the
Kuskokwim Delta coast, one of the few areas where temperatures
have remained below freezing. As such, a Blizzard Warning remains
out through this afternoon, when winds will begin to diminish.
Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for Kuskokwim Valley
through this afternoon, as a chance for freezing rain persists
through the morning before the incoming cold air erodes away the
warm air aloft.

The next weather feature of note is a strong low currently
approaching the Eastern Aleutians. Its front has brought gusty
northerly winds, snow, and blowing snow to Adak and Atka. As the
low and its front crosses into the Bering Sea through the morning,
expect strong south to southeasterly winds across the Eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, especially where terrain gaps may
enhance winds. Mariners transiting through that area should
expect storm force winds this morning and afternoon. The front
approaches the Pribilof Islands and grazes Kuskokwim Delta this
afternoon. This could bring the potential for blizzard conditions
to be extended across the Kuskokwim Delta coast, as temperatures
will still remain cold enough for transportable snow. Conditions
will gradually improve through Saturday afternoon as the low
weakens and curves northwestwards towards Eastern Russia.

One final item of note for this forecast is the potential for
another round of mixed precipitation for Bristol Bay as a weak
low moves in from late Friday through Saturday. With temperatures
once again dropping below freezing with today's cold air surge,
the warm air associated with this low could produce conditions for
freezing rain. Still, if any freezing rain does occur, it will
likely be short-lived and not produce very much ice accumulation
as surface temperatures will be close to freezing and will not
take long to warm up as the low moves through.

-KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

A major pattern shift will occur as we head to the extended
forecast period on Monday, with an upper level ridge building over
mainland Alaska. This will lead to quiet weather for southern AK,
a much needed break from the long string of impactful storm
systems affecting the area since Christmas. There are some minor
model differences with the position of the ridge and handling of
weak features along the periphery, but none of those look like
they would cause any significant weather. There are signs that the
ridge will begin to retrograde westward late in the week, which
could bring Arctic air southward across mainland Alaska.

Meanwhile, the Bering Sea and Aleutians will be much more active,
with deep storm systems tracking northward from the Pacific
across the Aleutians and Bering Sea. This will bring routine doses
of warmer air northward, so the main impact will be strong winds
and rain with each storm system.

-SEB

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light to moderate rain will persist through the morning
hours. Southeasterly winds will increase with gusts to 40 kt
possible at the terminal. Winds will shift south-southwesterly mid
morning and stay strong with gusts to 40 kt possible until 21Z.
Winds will decrease in the afternoon. Colder air moving in at the
tail end of precipitation may result in a quick burst of snow
around 18 to 21 Z. The combination of strong winds and snow may
bring IFR conditions before conditions improve in the afternoon.
Calm winds and surface moisture will be favorable for fog
development late tonight and into tomorrow morning.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1241 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     Snow             3 ESE Valdez            61.12N 146.26W
01/16/2026  E20.0 Inch       Chugach            AK   Dept of Highways

            18-20 inches estimated snowfall in town
            (location estimated).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1246 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     Snow             1 NNW Thompson Pass     61.14N 145.74W
01/16/2026  E24.0 Inch       Chugach            AK   Dept of Highways

            Estimated 24 inches of snow in the pass. The
            pass is closed.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1250 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 PM     Avalanche        7 SW Thompson Pass      61.07N 145.90W
01/16/2026                   Chugach            AK   Dept of Highways

            Avalanche reported on the northside of
            Keystone Canyon. Highway closed through
            Keystone Canyon and Thompson Pass mp 12 to
            mp 65. Very difficult highway conditions on
            either side of the closure. Crews are still
            assessing.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
228 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     Rain             3 N Trapper Creek       62.28N 150.42W
01/16/2026  M0.82 Inch       Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Cocorahs

            24 hour Cocorahs report at 9:30AM mentioned
            0.82 inches of liquid with 4 inches of
            snowfall. Snowpack Depth of 30.5 inches.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
231 PM AKST Fri Jan 16 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     Snow             23 SE Skwentna          61.75N 150.90W
01/16/2026  M18.3 Inch       Matanuska-Susitna  AK   Mesonet

            Alexander Lake SNOTEL size reported 18.3
            snow depth change in 24 hours.

&&