Brisk Wind Advisory 17, NWS Anchorage, AK

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
527 PM AKST Thu Jan 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The main tap from the atmospheric river can be seen on Kenai and
Middleton Island radars this afternoon with high reflectivities
indicative of the moisture content on its way for this storm. Warm
air began to intrude into the region this morning, with the Kenai
Peninsula, Copper Valley and Mat Valley already in the mid-
thirties to 40s. Anchorage and the Susitna Valley have maintained
a northwest wind and remained colder, but this will change through
the night as strong winds aloft mix down warmer air from Talkeetna
south into Anchorage. The most likely area within the abundance of
Winter Weather Advisories to receive true freezing rain tonight
(rain falling into a cold layer of air) will be from Willow north
to Talkeetna, where winds will have a harder time mixing in the
warmer temperatures. Elsewhere, rain falling onto frozen and snow
covered roadways will be the main ice hazard.

Forecast confidence has increased greatly today with most weather
models now in solid agreement. As seen on radar, the abundance of
moisture streaming north from Hawaii is already starting to
saturate the column, despite strong southeasterly winds. Through
the night, winds aloft will transition from southeasterly to more
southerly, negating the downsloping effect and allowing for 0.3 to
1.25 inches of liquid equivalent to fall for most of the
population centers. Conditions will change quickly tomorrow
morning as the cold air rapidly surges back in from the southwest.
Strong winds, gusting 40 to 55 mph out of the southwest will bring
cold air in to the western Kenai, Anchorage and the Mat Valley,
transitioning rain to snow at the tail end of the event. The
somewhat rapid refreeze may cause any remaining water on the roads
to freeze. The morning commute may be hazardous tomorrow.

For the Copper Basin, warm air has already pushed far to the
north, with rain now expected to be the main precipitation type.
Rain falling onto snow covered and frozen ground may freeze on
impact. Luckily, as far as chinook events go, this one is
relatively short in nature, with the system fully out of the
region by Friday afternoon. An additional weaker storm will move
in on Saturday, bringing light precipitation to the eastern Kenai,
Kodiak and the Susitna Valley. This will be another warm system
with more details to come.

-CJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday night)...

A true winter storm is in progress with multiple hazards and all
p-types on the board for the southern Alaska Peninsula and
Southwest Alaska. An upper level trough is taking a negative tilt
over the Central/Eastern Aleutians and further amplifying the 500
mb pattern with difluent flow across much of Alaska and sharp
ridging downstream over the Gulf.

A strong warm front is draped northeast to southwest just
north/inland of the Bristol Bay region with a substantial amount
of warm air advection streaming over places like King Salmon -
where it is near 40F and raining, and a northerly wind holding on
at the surface for interior Southwest locations such as Bethel
where it is currently -5F. With ample moisture riding up and over
the front with cold air undercutting it at the surface, p-types
between Bethel and Dillingham range from all snow (and heavy snow)
farther to the north to pure freezing rain or plain rain to the
south.

The forecast is largely on track, and more mixed p-types will be
introduced to northern portions of Southwest Alaska as the
afternoon and evening wears on as temperatures warm aloft. Winter
Weather Advisories remain in effect for heavy mixed precipitation
and a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Dillingham
northward to Crooked Creek for snow and light ice amounts. Along
with freezing rain being a self limiting p-type, with such a fast
progression of the front, the freezing rain potential is very
brief and the p-type transition will be snow to a quick shot of
freezing rain, and then over to cold rain for areas south of the
central Kuskokwim Valley. Heavier precipitation rates with
freezing rain will also result in more latent heat release,
further adding to the surface warming process. It seems that the
farthest north that rain will spread inland will be a corridor
from Lime Village southwestward to Togiak and Twin Hills.

By Friday morning, the surface low will be working northward up
the southwest Alaska coastline, with cold air advection in the
wake of the low. Most of the guidance has the upper low/trough
component moving in at this time as well, which will help the
column to dynamically cool and erode away the low level inversion
to back below freezing. Therefore, precipitation ending as snow
showers seems likely for Southwest Alaska and the Alaska
Peninsula. Depending on the strength of the advection, it is
possible to see blowing snow issues as the storm system departs
the region.

As the current system moves away midday Friday, another system is
on its heels, but much farther west. A gale force front with
embedded storm force winds arrives to Nikolski, Unalaska, and
Akutan late Friday morning or midday Friday.

-AM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

A major pattern shift will occur as we head to the extended
forecast period on Monday, with an upper level ridge building over
mainland Alaska. This will lead to quiet weather for southern AK,
a much needed break from the long string of impactful storm
systems affecting the area since Christmas. There are some minor
model differences with the position of the ridge and handling of
weak features along the periphery, but none of those look like
they would cause any significant weather. There are signs that the
ridge will begin to retrograde westward late in the week, which
could bring Arctic air southward across mainland Alaska.

Meanwhile, the Bering Sea and Aleutians will be much more active,
with deep storm systems tracking northward from the Pacific
across the Aleutians and Bering Sea. This will bring routine doses
of warmer air northward, so the main impact will be strong winds
and rain with each storm system.

-SEB

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...It is a very complex weather situation for this evening
into Friday afternoon. The main issues will be wind, wind shear
and precipitation type. We start this afternoon with light snow
around the airport with VFR conditions. Surface winds should
remain northerly up to 10 kt, but the wind shear level is expected
to be around 1000 ft above the ground where winds will be
southeasterly from 45 to 55 kt through most of the overnight hours.
This evening, the precipitation should turn to freezing rain and
then to rain and increase in intensity. It looks like conditions
should remain VRF even in the rain or freezing rain, but
occasional MVFR ceilings are possible.

Early Friday morning the winds will abruptly shift to the
Southeast out of Turnagain Arm with gusts up to 40 kt. This will
end the wind shear with the winds making their way to the surface.
By late morning, winds will remain strong but shift to the south-
southwest as a cold front moves through from the southwest. The
biggest uncertainty is whether there will be a quick burst of
snow (possibly down to IFR conditions) as the front moves through,
or if the rain ends before the air gets cold enough to switch to
snow. All conditions should improve Friday evening.

&&