Alert archive / Minnesota / Tornado Watches in 2025

Tornado Watch 251

May 15, 202535 counties in Minnesota; 24 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 15, 2025, 12:46 PM CDT for 35 counties in Minnesota; 24 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2025, 12:46 PM CDT (17:46 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2025, 7:28 PM CDT
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 3 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 59 counties

Aitkin County, MN, Anoka County, MN, Benton County, MN, Carver County, MN, Cass County, MN, Chisago County, MN, Crow Wing County, MN, Dakota County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Goodhue County, MN, Grant County, MN, Hennepin County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, McLeod County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Otter Tail County, MN, Pine County, MN, Pope County, MN, Ramsey County, MN, Scott County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Todd County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Wadena County, MN, Washington County, MN, Wilkin County, MN, Winona County, MN, Wright County, MN, Ashland County, WI, Barron County, WI, Bayfield County, WI, Buffalo County, WI, Burnett County, WI, Chippewa County, WI, Clark County, WI, Douglas County, WI, Dunn County, WI, Eau Claire County, WI, Iron County, WI, Jackson County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Pepin County, WI, Pierce County, WI, Polk County, WI, Price County, WI, Rusk County, WI, Saint Croix County, WI, Sawyer County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Washburn County, WI

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 60%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 40%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 20%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 60%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 95%

Warnings issued inside it

57 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 1:17 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Swift	28 min
May 15, 1:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Dakota, Goodhue, Le Sueur, Rice, Scott, Steele	33 min
May 15, 1:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Meeker, Wright	27 min
May 15, 1:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Carver, Wright	24 min
May 15, 1:37 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Pope, Stevens, Swift	38 min
May 15, 1:48 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Scott	10 min
May 15, 1:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Dakota, Goodhue, Hennepin, Ramsey, Rice, Scott and 1 more	35 min
May 15, 2:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Olmsted, Wabasha	31 min
May 15, 2:15 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DLH	Crow Wing	26 min
May 15, 2:21 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Grant, Otter Tail, Wilkin	39 min
May 15, 2:25 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Anoka, Hennepin, Ramsey	20 min
May 15, 2:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Dakota, Goodhue, Ramsey, Washington	44 min
May 15, 2:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Anoka, Chisago, Hennepin, Isanti, Kanabec, Mille Lacs and 3 more	49 min
May 15, 2:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Wabasha	46 min
May 15, 2:49 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Wadena	41 min
May 15, 2:52 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	MPX	Stearns, Todd	23 min
May 15, 2:53 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ARX	Wabasha	22 min
May 15, 2:53 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Pierce	22 min
May 15, 2:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Winona	34 min
May 15, 3:01 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Dunn, Pepin, Pierce	14 min
May 15, 3:06 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Mille Lacs	24 min
May 15, 3:07 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Saint Croix	23 min
May 15, 3:10 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ARX	Buffalo	20 min
May 15, 3:15 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Dunn, Pepin, Pierce	30 min
May 15, 3:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Aitkin	35 min
May 15, 3:25 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Polk, Saint Croix	35 min
May 15, 3:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Buffalo, Trempealeau	47 min
May 15, 3:30 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, Pepin	30 min
May 15, 3:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Houston, Winona	20 min
May 15, 3:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Kanabec, Mille Lacs	24 min
May 15, 3:37 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Benton, Morrison, Stearns	23 min
May 15, 3:41 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Dunn	20 min
May 15, 3:49 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Polk	26 min
May 15, 3:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Jackson	24 min
May 15, 3:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Barron, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, Pepin, Rusk	47 min
May 15, 3:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Aitkin, Carlton, Pine	31 min
May 15, 3:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Juneau, Monroe, Vernon	46 min
May 15, 4:05 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MPX	Chippewa, Eau Claire	25 min
May 15, 4:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DLH	Pine	24 min
May 15, 4:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Jackson, Monroe	38 min
May 15, 4:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Clark, Jackson	48 min
May 15, 4:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Barron, Polk	29 min
May 15, 4:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Jackson, Juneau, Monroe	51 min
May 15, 4:30 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ARX	Clark	45 min
May 15, 4:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DLH	Douglas, Sawyer, Washburn	38 min
May 15, 4:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DLH	Carlton, Pine	35 min
May 15, 4:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Barron, Chippewa, Eau Claire, Rusk	47 min
May 15, 4:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Clark	46 min
May 15, 4:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Clark, Taylor	48 min
May 15, 5:00 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DLH	Carlton, Pine	30 min
May 15, 5:06 PM CDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	ARX	Clark	39 min
May 15, 5:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DLH	Ashland, Bayfield, Douglas, Iron, Price, Sawyer and 1 more	67 min
May 15, 5:19 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DLH	Ashland, Sawyer	26 min
May 15, 5:36 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	DLH	Ashland, Bayfield, Sawyer	24 min
May 15, 5:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ARX	Taylor	33 min
May 15, 5:45 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	ARX	Taylor	30 min
May 15, 5:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	DLH	Iron, Price	23 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 79 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 515 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -91 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1098 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 148 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 141 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 1:08 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Nobles, Pipestone, Rock	97 min
May 15, 1:36 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Cottonwood, Jackson, Lincoln, Lyon, Murray, Nobles and 2 more	6 hr
May 15, 4:04 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Big Stone, Brown, Chippewa, Cottonwood, Jackson, Kandiyohi and 16 more	86 min
May 15, 7:23 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Blue Earth, Brown, Carver, Chippewa, Cottonwood, Dakota and 28 more	97 min
May 15, 12:08 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anoka, Benton, Blue Earth, Carver, Chippewa, Chisago and 31 more	3 hr
May 15, 1:42 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Anoka, Carver, Dakota, Goodhue, Hennepin, Ramsey and 3 more	63 min
May 15, 3:00 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ramsey, Washington	90 min
May 15, 2:14 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Columbia, Crawford, Dane, Dodge, Grant and 13 more	2 hr
May 15, 3:05 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Adams, Brown, Calumet, Columbia, Crawford, Dane and 42 more	6 hr
May 15, 5:36 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Calumet, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Lincoln, Marathon and 10 more	84 min
May 15, 6:07 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Door, Florence, Forest, Marinette, Vilas	83 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Minnesota, 2025 Tornado Watches in Wisconsin, 2025 Every tornado watch in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.