Tornado Warning 2, NWS Duluth, MN

827 
WWUS53 KDLH 151925
SVSDLH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
225 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

MNC035-152000-
/O.CON.KDLH.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250515T2000Z/
Crow Wing MN-
225 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CROW WING COUNTY...

At 224 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Baxter, or over Brainerd, moving northwest at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Brainerd, Baxter, Nisswa, and Gull Lake around 230 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4648 9433 4652 9423 4641 9410 4628 9411
      4626 9422 4634 9433
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 151DEG 37KT 4634 9424 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

JDS

075 
WWUS53 KDLH 151934
SVSDLH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
234 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

MNC035-152000-
/O.CON.KDLH.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250515T2000Z/
Crow Wing MN-
234 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL CROW WING COUNTY...

At 233 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Gull Lake, or near Brainerd, moving northwest at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Nisswa and Gull Lake around 240 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4648 9418 4639 9416 4635 9428 4642 9433
      4648 9433 4652 9423
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 151DEG 37KT 4641 9430 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

JDS

293 
WWUS53 KDLH 151941
SVSDLH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
241 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

MNC035-151951-
/O.CAN.KDLH.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250515T2000Z/
Crow Wing MN-
241 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL CROW WING COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, small hail is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for north central
and east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4648 9418 4639 9416 4635 9428 4642 9433
      4648 9433 4652 9423
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 151DEG 37KT 4649 9436 

$$

JDS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
115 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to occur this
  afternoon and evening in northwest Wisconsin and possibly in
  portions of northeast Minnesota. Damaging winds, large hail,
  and isolated tornadoes are the threats.

- Widespread rain begins today and continues through Saturday
  morning bringing relief to the dry spell and fire mitigation
  efforts with up to an inch and a half of rain possible.

- Cooler weather for the weekend with overnight lows near
  freezing for portions of the region with frost expected. Even
  a little snow will mix in for the Arrowhead on Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

A low-pressure system will deepen today, influenced by a
negatively tilted trough in the upper atmosphere over the
central U.S. A warm front lifting northward will bring the first
chance of thunderstorms to the Brainerd Lakes region late
morning into midday. These initial storms are not expected to be
severe, primarily producing cloud-to-ground lightning, small
hail, and gusty winds.

A brief warm sector will precede a more potent round of
thunderstorms expected to develop along a northward moving
occluding front - first in central Minnesota, and then spread
northeastward into northwest Wisconsin through the afternoon.
Isolated severe storms are possible, quickly organizing into a
line segment in the late afternoon. This line will track
northeastward through the evening, with all threats damaging
wind, large hail, and tornadoes on the table. Northwest
Wisconsin has the best shot at the most severe storms, but
severe storms cannot be entirely ruled out in the Arrowhead
region and along and south of the Iron Range.

Here is a pre-frontal sounding near KHYR from the NAM3KM valid
at 00Z:
SRH 0-1km: 311 m^2 s-2
SRH 0-3km: 367 m^2 s-2
SBCAPE: 2180 J/kg
MLCAPE: 2165 J/kg
MUCAPE: 2383 J/kg
SBCIN: -5 J/kg
MLCIN: -1 J/kg
DCAPE: 1178 J/kg
SHR 200-850mb: 24 kt
RH 300-850mb: 33 %
PWAT: 1.17 in

Analysis of the pre-frontal sounding near KHYR from the NAM3KM
model highlights an environment highly conducive to severe
thunderstorm development this evening. The sounding reveals
substantial atmospheric instability, with SBCAPE at 2180 J/kg
and MLCAPE at 2165 J/kg, indicating significant buoyant energy
for storm updrafts. Minimal convective inhibition (SBCIN -5
J/kg, MLCIN -1 J/kg) suggests that rising air parcels will
easily reach their level of free convection, promoting storm
initiation. The wind profile is characterized by strong deep-
layer shear, noted as 50 knots over the 0-6km layer, which is
essential for fostering organized storm structures like
supercells. Furthermore, impressive low-level shear is evident
in the high SRH values (311 m^2 s-2 0-1km, 367 m^2 s-2 0-3km),
suggesting a favorable environment for updraft rotation. The
very high DCAPE value of 1800 J/kg (spatially there are higher
values, only 1178 J/kg is listed in the above sounding) points
to a substantial threat for intense downdrafts capable of
producing damaging surface winds. These combined parameters—high
instability, low inhibition, strong shear, significant low-
level rotation potential, and high downdraft potential—suggest a
high likelihood of strong to severe storms, with damaging wind
gusts being a prominent threat alongside a risk for tornadoes
and large hail.

Following the line of storms, a few hours of quieter weather
are expected as the main low-pressure system moves into and
stalls over the Upper Midwest. More widespread rainfall is
forecast again on Friday and Friday night due to wrap-around
moisture around the low. Rainfall totals from this system are
generally forecast to be between 0.4 and 1 inch, with
potentially higher amounts along a line extending from Duluth to
St. Cloud.

There is a low chance (20-30%) of a rain/snow mix in the
Arrowhead Saturday night as a cooler airmass settles in, though
no impacts are anticipated from the snow.

Below-normal temperatures will persist into early next week with
a northerly then easterly wind flow. Frost and freeze concerns
will arise Sunday and Monday mornings. Another widespread rain
system may impact the Northland next Tuesday followed by a warm-
up.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Dense fog near DLH has retreated to Lake Superior and is no
longer impacting the terminal. Low pressure to our southwest
will push a line of storms through the region this afternoon and
evening, moving from southwest to northeast. This line will
start out near BRD around 20Z and exit around CKC around to
cross from southwest to northeast starting around 19Z near KBRD
and exiting around 03Z near KCKC. Strongest storms should be
across NW WI back into central Minnesota where hail and strong
to severe winds could accompany the strongest storms. Lightning
and gusty winds will accompany all storms. Winds will turn from
easterly to southerly this evening, and remain southerly into
Friday.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

The Dense Fog Advisory for the Outer Apostle Islands and western
Lake Superior was extened into this evening.

Previous Discussion: A period of about 6 hours of gale force
easterly wind gusts will occur this afternoon before an occluded
front brings a line of severe storms northeastward across Lake
Superior this evening. A gale warning has been issued for the
North Shore to cover this threat. Meanwhile gusty winds and
building seas will make hazardous conditions for small craft.
Winds will be slow to turn to the northwest as an area of low
pressure spins over Minnesota through Friday evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     145>148-150.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>146-
     150.
     Gale Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>144.

&&

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
212 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-161915-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
212 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Dense fog across western Lake Superior has spread into the Twin
Ports and will linger through the morning commute. T

his afternoon and evening severe storms are expected. The highest
risk is in northwest Wisconsin, but northeast Minnesota also is
under a marginal to slight risk. Tornadoes, large hail, and
damaging winds are all possible with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Frost advisories may be needed beginning Monday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters may be needed today.

LSZ121-140>148-150-161915-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
212 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Foggy conditions continue to spread across western Lake Superior.
A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect.

Gales will be possible across North Shore prior to the onset of
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms may
be severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Enhanced northeasterly winds return Monday and may lead to
hazardous conditions for small vessels.

JJM

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth