Gale Warning 21, NWS Duluth, MN

869 
WHUS73 KDLH 151457
MWWDLH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
957 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

LSZ140>144-160100-
/O.EXT.KDLH.MF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-250515T1800Z/
/O.CON.KDLH.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-250515T1800Z/
/O.CON.KDLH.GL.W.0021.250515T1800Z-250516T0100Z/
Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
957 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce 
  visibility to less than 1 NM. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  northeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 2 
  to 4 ft. For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 15 to 25 kt 
  with gusts up to 40 kt and waves 3 to 6 ft expected.

* WHERE...Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN, Grand Marais to 
  Taconite Harbor MN, Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN, 
  Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN and Two Harbors to Duluth 
  MN.

* WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 1 PM CDT this 
  afternoon. For the Gale Warning, from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 
  PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Low 
  visibility will make navigation difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$

LSZ145-146-160300-
/O.EXT.KDLH.MF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-250515T1800Z/
/O.CON.KDLH.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-250516T0300Z/
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
957 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce 
  visibility to less than 1 NM. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and waves 4 
  to 7 ft.

* WHERE...Duluth MN to Port Wing WI and Port Wing to Sand Island 
  WI.

* WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 1 PM CDT this 
  afternoon. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM CDT this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Low 
  visibility will make navigation difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone operating a smaller vessel should avoid navigating in
hazardous conditions.

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$

LSZ150-160300-
/O.EXT.KDLH.MF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-250515T1800Z/
/O.CON.KDLH.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-250516T0300Z/
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
957 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce
  visibility to less than 1 NM. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  east winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 3 to 6 
  ft.

* WHERE...Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland.

* WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 1 PM CDT this 
  afternoon. For the Small Craft Advisory, until 10 PM CDT this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Low 
  visibility will make navigation difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone operating a smaller vessel should avoid navigating in
hazardous conditions.

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$

LSZ121-147-148-160300-
/O.CON.KDLH.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-250516T0300Z/
Chequamegon Bay-Bayfield to Oak Point WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
957 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...East winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 
  1 to 3 ft.

* WHERE...Chequamegon Bay-Bayfield to Oak Point WI, Sand Island 
  to Bayfield WI and Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone operating a smaller vessel should avoid navigating in
hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

672 
WHUS73 KDLH 151802
MWWDLH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
102 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

LSZ140>144-160300-
/O.EXP.KDLH.MF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-250515T1800Z/
/O.EXP.KDLH.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-250515T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KDLH.MF.Y.0008.250515T1802Z-250516T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDLH.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-250516T0100Z/
Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
102 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce 
  visibility to less than 1 NM. For the Gale Warning, northeast 
  winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and waves 3 to 6 ft.

* WHERE...Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN, Grand Marais to 
  Taconite Harbor MN, Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN, 
  Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN and Two Harbors to Duluth 
  MN.

* WHEN...For the Dense Fog Advisory, until 10 PM CDT this 
  evening. For the Gale Warning, until 8 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Low visibility
  will make navigation difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$

LSZ145-146-160300-
/O.EXP.KDLH.MF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-250515T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KDLH.MF.Y.0008.250515T1802Z-250516T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDLH.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-250516T0300Z/
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
102 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce 
  visibility to less than 1 NM. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 4 
  to 7 ft.

* WHERE...Duluth MN to Port Wing WI and Port Wing to Sand Island 
  WI.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Low
  visibility will make navigation difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone operating a smaller vessel should avoid navigating in
hazardous conditions.

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$

LSZ150-160300-
/O.EXP.KDLH.MF.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-250515T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KDLH.MF.Y.0008.250515T1802Z-250516T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDLH.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-250516T0300Z/
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
102 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce 
  visibility to less than 1 NM. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  east winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and waves 3 to 6 
  ft.

* WHERE...Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Low
  visibility will make navigation difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone operating a smaller vessel should avoid navigating in
hazardous conditions.

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$

LSZ121-147-148-160300-
/O.CON.KDLH.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-250516T0300Z/
Chequamegon Bay-Bayfield to Oak Point WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
102 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...East winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and waves 
  1 to 3 ft.

* WHERE...Chequamegon Bay-Bayfield to Oak Point WI, Sand Island 
  to Bayfield WI and Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone operating a smaller vessel should avoid navigating in
hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

944 
WHUS73 KDLH 152021
MWWDLH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
321 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

LSZ140>144-160300-
/O.CON.KDLH.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-250516T0100Z/
/O.CON.KDLH.MF.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250516T0300Z/
Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
321 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, northeast winds 15 to 25 kt with 
  gusts up to 40 kt and waves 3 to 6 ft. For the Dense Fog 
  Advisory, dense fog will reduce visibility to less than 1 NM.

* WHERE...Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN, Grand Marais to 
  Taconite Harbor MN, Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN, 
  Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN and Two Harbors to Duluth 
  MN.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 8 PM CDT this evening. For 
  the Dense Fog Advisory, until 10 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Low 
  visibility will make navigation difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for hazardous conditions.

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$

LSZ145-146-160300-
/O.CON.KDLH.MF.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250516T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDLH.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-250516T0300Z/
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
321 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce 
  visibility to less than 1 NM. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  east winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt and waves 4 to 7 
  ft.

* WHERE...Duluth MN to Port Wing WI and Port Wing to Sand Island 
  WI.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Low 
  visibility will make navigation difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone operating a smaller vessel should avoid navigating in
hazardous conditions.

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$

LSZ150-160300-
/O.CON.KDLH.MF.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250516T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDLH.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-250516T0300Z/
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
321 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Dense Fog Advisory, dense fog will reduce 
  visibility to less than 1 NM. For the Small Craft Advisory, 
  east winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and waves 3 to 6 
  ft.

* WHERE...Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Low 
  visibility will make navigation difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone operating a smaller vessel should avoid navigating in
hazardous conditions.

If you must navigate, proceed with caution. Use proper fog
signals. Make sure all running lights are on. Remember to use
your radar and compass.

&&

$$

LSZ121-147-148-160300-
/O.CON.KDLH.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-250516T0300Z/
Chequamegon Bay-Bayfield to Oak Point WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
321 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  waves 1 to 4 ft.

* WHERE...Chequamegon Bay-Bayfield to Oak Point WI, Sand Island 
  to Bayfield WI and Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone operating a smaller vessel should avoid navigating in
hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

259 
WHUS73 KDLH 160034
MWWDLH

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
734 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

LSZ140>144-161000-
/O.CAN.KDLH.GL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-250516T0100Z/
/O.CAN.KDLH.MF.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250516T0300Z/
/O.EXB.KDLH.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-250516T1000Z/
Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
734 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...East winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and waves 
  3 to 6 ft.

* WHERE...Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN, Grand Marais to 
  Taconite Harbor MN, Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN, 
  Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN and Two Harbors to Duluth 
  MN.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone operating a smaller vessel should avoid navigating in
hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ145-146-150-161000-
/O.CAN.KDLH.MF.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-250516T0300Z/
/O.EXT.KDLH.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-250516T1000Z/
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
734 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and 
  waves 3 to 6 ft.

* WHERE...Duluth MN to Port Wing WI, Port Wing to Sand Island WI 
  and Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone operating a smaller vessel should avoid navigating in
hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LSZ121-147-148-161000-
/O.EXT.KDLH.SC.Y.0066.000000T0000Z-250516T1000Z/
Chequamegon Bay-Bayfield to Oak Point WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
734 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and waves
  1 to 3 ft.

* WHERE...Chequamegon Bay-Bayfield to Oak Point WI, Sand Island 
  to Bayfield WI and Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM CDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Anyone operating a smaller vessel should avoid navigating in
hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
324 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to occur this
  afternoon and evening in northwest Wisconsin and possibly in
  portions of northeast Minnesota. Damaging winds, large hail,
  and isolated tornadoes are the threats.

- Widespread rain begins today and continues through Saturday
  morning bringing relief to the dry spell and fire mitigation
  efforts with up to an inch and a half of rain possible.

- Cooler weather for the weekend with overnight lows near
  freezing for portions of the region with frost expected. Even
  a little snow will mix in for the Arrowhead on Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

A low-pressure system will deepen today, influenced by a
negatively tilted trough in the upper atmosphere over the
central U.S. A warm front lifting northward will bring the first
chance of thunderstorms to the Brainerd Lakes region late
morning into midday. These initial storms are not expected to be
severe, primarily producing cloud-to-ground lightning, small
hail, and gusty winds.

A brief warm sector will precede a more potent round of
thunderstorms expected to develop along a northward moving
occluding front - first in central Minnesota, and then spread
northeastward into northwest Wisconsin through the afternoon.
Isolated severe storms are possible, quickly organizing into a
line segment in the late afternoon. This line will track
northeastward through the evening, with all threats damaging
wind, large hail, and tornadoes on the table. Northwest
Wisconsin has the best shot at the most severe storms, but
severe storms cannot be entirely ruled out in the Arrowhead
region and along and south of the Iron Range.

Here is a pre-frontal sounding near KHYR from the NAM3KM valid
at 00Z:
SRH 0-1km: 311 m^2 s-2
SRH 0-3km: 367 m^2 s-2
SBCAPE: 2180 J/kg
MLCAPE: 2165 J/kg
MUCAPE: 2383 J/kg
SBCIN: -5 J/kg
MLCIN: -1 J/kg
DCAPE: 1178 J/kg
SHR 200-850mb: 24 kt
RH 300-850mb: 33 %
PWAT: 1.17 in

Analysis of the pre-frontal sounding near KHYR from the NAM3KM
model highlights an environment highly conducive to severe
thunderstorm development this evening. The sounding reveals
substantial atmospheric instability, with SBCAPE at 2180 J/kg
and MLCAPE at 2165 J/kg, indicating significant buoyant energy
for storm updrafts. Minimal convective inhibition (SBCIN -5
J/kg, MLCIN -1 J/kg) suggests that rising air parcels will
easily reach their level of free convection, promoting storm
initiation. The wind profile is characterized by strong deep-
layer shear, noted as 50 knots over the 0-6km layer, which is
essential for fostering organized storm structures like
supercells. Furthermore, impressive low-level shear is evident
in the high SRH values (311 m^2 s-2 0-1km, 367 m^2 s-2 0-3km),
suggesting a favorable environment for updraft rotation. The
very high DCAPE value of 1800 J/kg (spatially there are higher
values, only 1178 J/kg is listed in the above sounding) points
to a substantial threat for intense downdrafts capable of
producing damaging surface winds. These combined parameters—high
instability, low inhibition, strong shear, significant low-
level rotation potential, and high downdraft potential—suggest a
high likelihood of strong to severe storms, with damaging wind
gusts being a prominent threat alongside a risk for tornadoes
and large hail.

Following the line of storms, a few hours of quieter weather
are expected as the main low-pressure system moves into and
stalls over the Upper Midwest. More widespread rainfall is
forecast again on Friday and Friday night due to wrap-around
moisture around the low. Rainfall totals from this system are
generally forecast to be between 0.4 and 1 inch, with
potentially higher amounts along a line extending from Duluth to
St. Cloud.

There is a low chance (20-30%) of a rain/snow mix in the
Arrowhead Saturday night as a cooler airmass settles in, though
no impacts are anticipated from the snow.

Below-normal temperatures will persist into early next week with
a northerly then easterly wind flow. Frost and freeze concerns
will arise Sunday and Monday mornings. Another widespread rain
system may impact the Northland next Tuesday followed by a warm-
up.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

A fairly active TAF period with dense fog around KDLH this
morning which will burn off after sunrise. Then attention turns
to an area of low pressure that will drive a line of storms
through the region this afternoon. Expect the line to cross from
southwest to northeast starting around 19Z near KBRD and exiting
around 01Z around KCKC. The strongest storms should be across NW
WI, but all should have IFR conditions with lightning and gusty
winds. Winds will turn from easterly to southerly through the
period.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025

A period of about 6 hours of gale force easterly wind gusts
will occur this afternoon before an occluded front brings a
line of severe storms northeastward across Lake Superior this
evening. A gale warning has been issued for the North Shore to
cover this threat. Meanwhile gusty winds and building seas will
make hazardous conditions for small craft. Winds will be slow to
turn to the northwest as an area of low pressure spins over
Minnesota through Friday evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ037.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ121-145>148-150.
     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>146-
     150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT this
     afternoon for LSZ140>144.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for LSZ140>144.

&&

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1051 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-160400-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
1051 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Fog across western Lake Superior could spread inland tonight,
with visibilities dropping below one half mile as far inland as
Cloquet and Hermantown.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance of severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening. Best chance for severe storms is in northwest Wisconsin.
All hazards are expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-150-160400-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
1051 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Foggy conditions continue to spread across western Lake Superior
and should last until Thursday morning. A Marine Dense Fog
Advisory is in effect. There is a chance of thunderstorms tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night.

Gusty northeast winds will develop over western Lake Superior
Thursday afternoon and are expected to pose a risk to small
craft. Northeast gales are possible too.

HA

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth