Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
128 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 112 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

- Severe thunderstorm risk through this evening with chances for
  damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.

- Heavy rain with a risk for flooding in urban, low-lying, and
  poor drainage areas, especially west of I-65.

- Gusty non-thunderstorm winds between 35 to 45 mph through this
  evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue this morning as the warm front
pushes northward. Right now storms have stayed mostly sub severe,
with some small hail reported. But, instability and additional
moisture will move northward through the day, increasing the fuel
for strong to severe storms this afternoon. Very strong low to mid
level shear will increase the threat for strong updrafts and
storms able to produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and even
tornadoes, especially in the southern half of the area in the
moderate risk. The limiting factor so far has been the warmer air
aloft capping a lot of the convection from going severe, but with
the warm front lifting northward, surface warming will continue
and allow for the cap to weaken to increase the severe threat.
Models continue to show the cap weakening and surface based CAPE
increasing through the afternoon, so remain weather aware and have
multiple ways to receive warnings!

PWAT values will also continue to increase, and with high rain
rates and training of heavy rainfall, flash flooding will also be
a threat this afternoon and evening. Heavy rain should move out of
the area after midnight, but lingering showers will be possible
through mid day Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Drier and cooler conditions will start the week as the deep trough
over the eastern CONUS continues eastward. Temps will warm up
Tuesday and Wednesday as ridging builds in ahead of the next
trough, and rain chances return Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. The cold front associated with that trough will dry the
region out quite a bit, and may increase the fire weather threat
for Thursday and Friday. Ridging builds in for Friday followed by
another shot at rain next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

A line of strong thunderstorms is currently situated across
central Tennessee, between KCKV and KBNA. Over the next 1 to 3
hours, this line will slowly move east, approaching the I-65 by
21Z (bringing VCTS into KBNA and KMSQ). Ahead of this line,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
move to the northeast. Coverage is not enough to warrant a FM
group, so have kept VCTS for now. Between 21Z and 02Z, a strong to
severe line of thunderstorms will impact BNA, MSQ, CSV and SRB
from west to east. Frequent lightning, and strong winds up to 35
knots are the most likely hazard (included in the TEMPO). There is
a low chance of severe winds (50+ knots) at terminal sites during
this time frame. A tornado cannot be ruled out with the passage of
this main line either. Behind this line, there will be 3 to 4
hours of -TSRA. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
after 09Z, primarily impacting MSQ, BNA, and CKV between 09 and
15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  52  60  34 / 100 100  60   0
Clarksville    71  47  55  32 / 100  90  50   0
Crossville     69  50  60  29 /  90 100  70  10
Columbia       72  50  60  32 / 100 100  50   0
Cookeville     72  51  60  31 /  90 100  70   0
Jamestown      70  50  61  29 /  90 100  70  10
Lawrenceburg   70  49  58  32 /  90  90  40   0
Murfreesboro   74  51  61  31 / 100 100  60   0
Waverly        69  48  57  33 / 100  90  30   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

Flood Watch through late tonight for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-
075-077>080-093>095.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....99

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
125 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

TNZ025>027-057>060-151915-
Hickman TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Lewis TN-Davidson TN-Maury TN-
Cheatham TN-
125 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN DAVIDSON...NORTHERN
LEWIS...EASTERN DICKSON...NORTHWESTERN MAURY...NORTHWESTERN
WILLIAMSON...CHEATHAM AND EASTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM
CDT...

At 125 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northwest of White Bluff to 8 miles
south of Burns to Hohenwald. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gordonsburg, Charlotte, Kimmins, Bon Aqua, Hohenwald, Bells Bend,
Primm Springs, Lyles, Bellevue, Natchez Trace At Highway 96,
Centerville, Pegram, Fairview, Kingston Springs, Beaman Park,
Williamsport, Ashland City, White Bluff, Nunnelly, and Burns.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 167 and 204.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 28 and 30.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 1 and 15.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3590 8746 3618 8738 3638 8700 3637 8698
      3638 8696 3618 8682 3567 8723 3555 8744
      3547 8769 3548 8770
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 229DEG 44KT 3617 8731 3593 8730 3558 8757

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
144 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

TNZ058-060-093>095-151930-
Lawrence TN-Wayne TN-Lewis TN-Maury TN-Giles TN-
144 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LEWIS...WAYNE...LAWRENCE...MAURY
AND NORTHWESTERN GILES COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM CDT...

At 144 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hohenwald to 10 miles northwest of
Underwood-Petersville. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Loretto, Ethridge, Gordonsburg, Henryville, Hohenwald, Mount
Pleasant, Spring Hill, Cypress Inn, Collinwood, St. Joseph,
Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg, Santa Fe, Columbia, Leoma, Westpoint,
Summertown, Iron City, Hampshire, and Williamsport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 8796 3548 8771 3562 8747 3562 8742
      3566 8732 3570 8730 3570 8725 3576 8723
      3582 8712 3577 8697 3578 8693 3576 8694
      3575 8691 3500 8728
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 240DEG 49KT 3549 8754 3501 8777

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
208 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

TNZ007-008-026-027-059-152000-
Robertson TN-Williamson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-Sumner TN-
208 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT DAVIDSON...WESTERN SUMNER...
CENTRAL WILLIAMSON...EASTERN CHEATHAM AND SOUTHEASTERN ROBERTSON
COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ashland City to near Bellevue to 11 miles
south of Fairview. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Madison, Hermitage, Belle Meade, Thompson's Station,
Millersville, Natchez Trace At Highway 96, Hendersonville,
Greenbrier, Berry Hill, Cottontown, Ashland City, Leipers Fork, Oak
Hill, Forest Hills, Ridgetop, Goodlettsville, Bells Bend, Brentwood,
and Nashville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 192 and 220.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 54 and 115.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 28 and 58.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 13 and 32.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8657 3635 8650 3629 8654 3632 8655
      3631 8656 3627 8656 3625 8659 3621 8658
      3574 8685 3576 8693 3578 8693 3577 8697
      3583 8716 3605 8703 3633 8708
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 233DEG 35KT 3630 8699 3610 8695 3582 8711

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore