Flash Flood Warning 21, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
128 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 112 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

- Severe thunderstorm risk through this evening with chances for
  damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.

- Heavy rain with a risk for flooding in urban, low-lying, and
  poor drainage areas, especially west of I-65.

- Gusty non-thunderstorm winds between 35 to 45 mph through this
  evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue this morning as the warm front
pushes northward. Right now storms have stayed mostly sub severe,
with some small hail reported. But, instability and additional
moisture will move northward through the day, increasing the fuel
for strong to severe storms this afternoon. Very strong low to mid
level shear will increase the threat for strong updrafts and
storms able to produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and even
tornadoes, especially in the southern half of the area in the
moderate risk. The limiting factor so far has been the warmer air
aloft capping a lot of the convection from going severe, but with
the warm front lifting northward, surface warming will continue
and allow for the cap to weaken to increase the severe threat.
Models continue to show the cap weakening and surface based CAPE
increasing through the afternoon, so remain weather aware and have
multiple ways to receive warnings!

PWAT values will also continue to increase, and with high rain
rates and training of heavy rainfall, flash flooding will also be
a threat this afternoon and evening. Heavy rain should move out of
the area after midnight, but lingering showers will be possible
through mid day Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Drier and cooler conditions will start the week as the deep trough
over the eastern CONUS continues eastward. Temps will warm up
Tuesday and Wednesday as ridging builds in ahead of the next
trough, and rain chances return Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. The cold front associated with that trough will dry the
region out quite a bit, and may increase the fire weather threat
for Thursday and Friday. Ridging builds in for Friday followed by
another shot at rain next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

A line of strong thunderstorms is currently situated across
central Tennessee, between KCKV and KBNA. Over the next 1 to 3
hours, this line will slowly move east, approaching the I-65 by
21Z (bringing VCTS into KBNA and KMSQ). Ahead of this line,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
move to the northeast. Coverage is not enough to warrant a FM
group, so have kept VCTS for now. Between 21Z and 02Z, a strong to
severe line of thunderstorms will impact BNA, MSQ, CSV and SRB
from west to east. Frequent lightning, and strong winds up to 35
knots are the most likely hazard (included in the TEMPO). There is
a low chance of severe winds (50+ knots) at terminal sites during
this time frame. A tornado cannot be ruled out with the passage of
this main line either. Behind this line, there will be 3 to 4
hours of -TSRA. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
after 09Z, primarily impacting MSQ, BNA, and CKV between 09 and
15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  52  60  34 / 100 100  60   0
Clarksville    71  47  55  32 / 100  90  50   0
Crossville     69  50  60  29 /  90 100  70  10
Columbia       72  50  60  32 / 100 100  50   0
Cookeville     72  51  60  31 /  90 100  70   0
Jamestown      70  50  61  29 /  90 100  70  10
Lawrenceburg   70  49  58  32 /  90  90  40   0
Murfreesboro   74  51  61  31 / 100 100  60   0
Waverly        69  48  57  33 / 100  90  30   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

Flood Watch through late tonight for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-
075-077>080-093>095.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....99

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
538 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     Flash Flood      1 ENE Cumberland Furnac 36.27N 87.35W
03/15/2025                   Dickson            TN   Public

            Portions of Stark Rd covered in water and
            impassible in spots.

&&

13

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
542 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     Flash Flood      2 S Cookeville          36.12N 85.51W
03/15/2025                   Putnam             TN   Public

            Water covering roads at South Jefferson and
            Sliger Rd.

&&

13

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
544 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNE Baxter            36.17N 85.63W
03/15/2025                   Putnam             TN   Emergency Mngr

            Water covering road at 1286 Main St. in
            Baxter.

&&

13

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
549 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Mount Pleasant    35.55N 87.22W
03/15/2025                   Maury              TN   Public

            Water was covering the road in several spots
            along Highway 43 between Columbia and
            Lawrenceburg.

&&

13

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
552 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0551 PM     Flash Flood      1 ENE Berry Hill        36.12N 86.75W
03/15/2025                   Davidson           TN   Public

            Deep water covering the road at I-440 and
            Nolensville Pike.

&&

13

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
554 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Mcminnville       35.68N 85.77W
03/15/2025                   Warren             TN   Public

            Numerous downed trees were reported in the
            McMinnville area. Time estimate from radar.

&&

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