Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
128 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 112 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

- Severe thunderstorm risk through this evening with chances for
  damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.

- Heavy rain with a risk for flooding in urban, low-lying, and
  poor drainage areas, especially west of I-65.

- Gusty non-thunderstorm winds between 35 to 45 mph through this
  evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue this morning as the warm front
pushes northward. Right now storms have stayed mostly sub severe,
with some small hail reported. But, instability and additional
moisture will move northward through the day, increasing the fuel
for strong to severe storms this afternoon. Very strong low to mid
level shear will increase the threat for strong updrafts and
storms able to produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and even
tornadoes, especially in the southern half of the area in the
moderate risk. The limiting factor so far has been the warmer air
aloft capping a lot of the convection from going severe, but with
the warm front lifting northward, surface warming will continue
and allow for the cap to weaken to increase the severe threat.
Models continue to show the cap weakening and surface based CAPE
increasing through the afternoon, so remain weather aware and have
multiple ways to receive warnings!

PWAT values will also continue to increase, and with high rain
rates and training of heavy rainfall, flash flooding will also be
a threat this afternoon and evening. Heavy rain should move out of
the area after midnight, but lingering showers will be possible
through mid day Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Drier and cooler conditions will start the week as the deep trough
over the eastern CONUS continues eastward. Temps will warm up
Tuesday and Wednesday as ridging builds in ahead of the next
trough, and rain chances return Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. The cold front associated with that trough will dry the
region out quite a bit, and may increase the fire weather threat
for Thursday and Friday. Ridging builds in for Friday followed by
another shot at rain next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

A line of strong thunderstorms is currently situated across
central Tennessee, between KCKV and KBNA. Over the next 1 to 3
hours, this line will slowly move east, approaching the I-65 by
21Z (bringing VCTS into KBNA and KMSQ). Ahead of this line,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
move to the northeast. Coverage is not enough to warrant a FM
group, so have kept VCTS for now. Between 21Z and 02Z, a strong to
severe line of thunderstorms will impact BNA, MSQ, CSV and SRB
from west to east. Frequent lightning, and strong winds up to 35
knots are the most likely hazard (included in the TEMPO). There is
a low chance of severe winds (50+ knots) at terminal sites during
this time frame. A tornado cannot be ruled out with the passage of
this main line either. Behind this line, there will be 3 to 4
hours of -TSRA. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
after 09Z, primarily impacting MSQ, BNA, and CKV between 09 and
15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  52  60  34 / 100 100  60   0
Clarksville    71  47  55  32 / 100  90  50   0
Crossville     69  50  60  29 /  90 100  70  10
Columbia       72  50  60  32 / 100 100  50   0
Cookeville     72  51  60  31 /  90 100  70   0
Jamestown      70  50  61  29 /  90 100  70  10
Lawrenceburg   70  49  58  32 /  90  90  40   0
Murfreesboro   74  51  61  31 / 100 100  60   0
Waverly        69  48  57  33 / 100  90  30   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

Flood Watch through late tonight for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-
075-077>080-093>095.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....99

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
211 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1231 PM     Flash Flood      1 S Goodlettsville      36.32N 86.70W
03/15/2025                   Davidson           TN   Public

            2 left lanes on I-65 NB just south of exit
            95 are underwater. Report from social media.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
214 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 PM     Flash Flood      3 NW Dickson            36.11N 87.42W
03/15/2025                   Dickson            TN   Public

            Videos on social media showing water over
            Walnut Grove Road in Dickson county.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
240 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

TNZ008-009-027>029-059-062-152030-
Rutherford TN-Williamson TN-Davidson TN-Wilson TN-Trousdale TN-
Sumner TN-Macon TN-
240 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...
NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD...SUMNER...NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON...
WILSON...WESTERN MACON AND TROUSDALE COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 240 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Portland to near Gallatin to 6 miles
southeast of Franklin. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Portland, Nolensville, Hartsville, La Vergne, Gallatin, Bledsoe Creek
State Park, Dickerson Chapel Recreation Area, Cedars Of Lebanon State
Park, Cottontown, Mount Juliet, Westmoreland, Smyrna, Green Hill,
Bethpage, Walterhill, Rural Hill, Oak Grove, Antioch, Belinda City,
and Lebanon.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 219 and 244.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 58 and 71.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 57 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3663 8594 3653 8597 3629 8613 3629 8614
      3628 8613 3595 8635 3584 8681 3634 8653
      3657 8657 3665 8643
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 240DEG 38KT 3660 8646 3635 8650 3586 8677

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
245 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     Flash Flood      Loretto                 35.08N 87.44W
03/15/2025                   Lawrence           TN   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency Management reports US 43 is
            flooded at Loretto.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
246 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     Flash Flood      1 N Lawrenceburg        35.26N 87.34W
03/15/2025                   Lawrence           TN   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency Manager reports street flooding in
            Lawrenceburg, TN.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
253 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     Flash Flood      3 E Waverly             36.09N 87.73W
03/15/2025                   Humphreys          TN   Emergency Mngr

            Some water over Highway 70 between Waverly
            and McEwen. Road was still passable.
            Otherwise, flooding of low lying areas near
            creeks and streams reported.

&&

RRH