Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
128 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 112 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

- Severe thunderstorm risk through this evening with chances for
  damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.

- Heavy rain with a risk for flooding in urban, low-lying, and
  poor drainage areas, especially west of I-65.

- Gusty non-thunderstorm winds between 35 to 45 mph through this
  evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Showers and thunderstorms continue this morning as the warm front
pushes northward. Right now storms have stayed mostly sub severe,
with some small hail reported. But, instability and additional
moisture will move northward through the day, increasing the fuel
for strong to severe storms this afternoon. Very strong low to mid
level shear will increase the threat for strong updrafts and
storms able to produce damaging wind gusts, hail, and even
tornadoes, especially in the southern half of the area in the
moderate risk. The limiting factor so far has been the warmer air
aloft capping a lot of the convection from going severe, but with
the warm front lifting northward, surface warming will continue
and allow for the cap to weaken to increase the severe threat.
Models continue to show the cap weakening and surface based CAPE
increasing through the afternoon, so remain weather aware and have
multiple ways to receive warnings!

PWAT values will also continue to increase, and with high rain
rates and training of heavy rainfall, flash flooding will also be
a threat this afternoon and evening. Heavy rain should move out of
the area after midnight, but lingering showers will be possible
through mid day Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Drier and cooler conditions will start the week as the deep trough
over the eastern CONUS continues eastward. Temps will warm up
Tuesday and Wednesday as ridging builds in ahead of the next
trough, and rain chances return Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. The cold front associated with that trough will dry the
region out quite a bit, and may increase the fire weather threat
for Thursday and Friday. Ridging builds in for Friday followed by
another shot at rain next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

A line of strong thunderstorms is currently situated across
central Tennessee, between KCKV and KBNA. Over the next 1 to 3
hours, this line will slowly move east, approaching the I-65 by
21Z (bringing VCTS into KBNA and KMSQ). Ahead of this line,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and
move to the northeast. Coverage is not enough to warrant a FM
group, so have kept VCTS for now. Between 21Z and 02Z, a strong to
severe line of thunderstorms will impact BNA, MSQ, CSV and SRB
from west to east. Frequent lightning, and strong winds up to 35
knots are the most likely hazard (included in the TEMPO). There is
a low chance of severe winds (50+ knots) at terminal sites during
this time frame. A tornado cannot be ruled out with the passage of
this main line either. Behind this line, there will be 3 to 4
hours of -TSRA. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
after 09Z, primarily impacting MSQ, BNA, and CKV between 09 and
15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  52  60  34 / 100 100  60   0
Clarksville    71  47  55  32 / 100  90  50   0
Crossville     69  50  60  29 /  90 100  70  10
Columbia       72  50  60  32 / 100 100  50   0
Cookeville     72  51  60  31 /  90 100  70   0
Jamestown      70  50  61  29 /  90 100  70  10
Lawrenceburg   70  49  58  32 /  90  90  40   0
Murfreesboro   74  51  61  31 / 100 100  60   0
Waverly        69  48  57  33 / 100  90  30   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

Flood Watch through late tonight for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-
075-077>080-093>095.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....99

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
408 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     7 NE Bell Buckle        35.67N 86.28W
03/15/2025                   Rutherford         TN   Dept of Highways

            Debris blocking I-24 east at mile marker
            89.2 in Rutherford County. Tree across
            roadway with all eastbound lanes blocked.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
413 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     8 NE Unionville         35.70N 86.49W
03/15/2025                   Rutherford         TN   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Rutherford County Fire working 2 reports of
            large trees blocking roadways in Christiana.
            6700blk Williams Rd, 4500blk Jones Rd.

&&

13

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
417 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 NE Unionville         35.68N 86.51W
03/15/2025                   Bedford            TN   Public

            Tree uprooted and damage to a metal building
            was reported near Christiana.

&&

13

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
444 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 W Bradyville          35.74N 86.23W
03/15/2025                   Rutherford         TN   Public

            Trees were blown down and blocking the road
            along Jacobs Hollow Rd near Bradyville Pike.
            Time estimated by radar.

&&

13

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
448 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     7 SSW Murfreesboro      35.76N 86.43W
03/15/2025                   Rutherford         TN   Public

            Trees were blown down at Webb Rd and
            Barfield-Crescent Rd. Time was estimated by
            radar.

&&

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
457 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

TNZ010-011-032>034-065-066-152245-
Putnam TN-Cumberland TN-Fentress TN-Overton TN-Pickett TN-Clay TN-
White TN-
457 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OVERTON...PICKETT...NORTHWESTERN
CUMBERLAND...NORTHEASTERN CLAY...NORTHEASTERN WHITE...SOUTHEASTERN
PUTNAM AND FENTRESS COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 457 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles west of Byrdstown to Monterey to 7
miles east of Sparta. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Grimsley, Allardt, Slate Springs, Livingston, Huntersville, Pall
Mall, Wolf River Dock, Jamestown, Pleasant Hill, Byrdstown,
Clarkrange, Crawford, Dale Hollow Lake, Monterey, Static, Fairfield
Glade, and Crossville.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 298 and 320.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3661 8484 3633 8483 3629 8484 3629 8487
      3628 8488 3624 8488 3621 8491 3618 8490
      3615 8491 3614 8488 3612 8486 3600 8488
      3589 8540 3613 8534 3662 8542 3663 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 239DEG 33KT 3659 8530 3613 8528 3595 8533

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

40/Sizemore