Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
907 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 845 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

- Significant flooding (both river and flash flooding) is expected
  in middle Tennessee tonight, mainly in northwestern middle
  Tennessee.

- Severe weather is expected tonight. Main impacts are damaging
  winds and tornadoes, with the greatest threat area west of I-24.

- Temperatures plummet next week, with a chance for snow entering
  the forecast. Confidence is on the low side with specifics
  currently.

.UPDATE...
Issued at 839 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Thunderstorms are spreading into Middle Tennessee at this hour
with the strongest cluster currently extending from near
Clarksville to Waverly. Several well defined bowing structures
are evident on radar which will be supportive of a damaging wind
threat at least for the next several hours. Objective analysis and
short term projections of surface and mixed layer instability
suggest that the severe threat will continue to be highest
generally along and west of the I-24 corridor through midnight.
The heavy rainfall threat will continue through the overnight
hours as deep moist southwesterly flow parallel to the front is
resulting in a maxima of low level moisture transport right into
Middle Tennessee. While the main convective line should continue
to advance eastward, a southwest to northeast training of echoes
will become more pronounced over the next few hours as storms
approach the I-65 corridor. Instances of flash flooding will
continue through the overnight hours. For this update, no
significant changes were made to the PoPs other than to update
hourly timing. As the entire system moves eastward, some wrap
around light rain/snow mix will be possible, with no significant
accumulations expected.

Dunn/FWD

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Rain has been falling already for most of the morning in middle
Tennessee, with some thunderstorms embedded in these warm frontal
showers. This axis of precipitation is expected to shift more NW as
the stationary front to our north wobbles throughout the day. This
will leave a period of clearing for our potential severe threat this
evening. As the low pressure system approaches from the west, moist
dewpoints are expected to drive north into Tennessee. With the surge
of moisture, the instability axis in current guidance also appears
to be further north than previous guidance. The LLJ continues to be
screaming its presence over the state with wind speeds of 70 knots,
providing ample shear into the setup. Considering that instability
is the parameter I was least confident on yesterday, I would say
that the severe threat overall has increased. This is reflected by
the enhanced risk now touching portions of Humphreys, Perry, and
Wayne counties this afternoon and evening. Main impacts I am
concerned about would be damaging wind gusts up to 70 MPH possible
and tornadoes. These would be greatest in any discrete cells that
form in the warm sector ahead of the cold front this evening, but we
cannot rule out QLCS tornadoes with such a stout cold front
approaching a favorable environment. Expect for the severe weather
to begin in the west around 4PM, and exiting middle Tennessee in the
early morning hours Sunday. With a nocturnal severe threat, remember
to have multiple ways of receiving warnings and be weather aware.

Another layer of complexity to this threat today is the flooding
risk. The moist airmass continues to crank out rainfall totals
exceeding expectations this morning, with some locations in the
north already receiving 3 inches of precipitation. As the front
wobbles, highest QPF will shift to the northwestern area of middle
Tennessee. Rainfall totals in this area are expected to be in the
range of 5 to 7 inches, with areas north of I-40 looking at 3 to 5
inches of accumulation. The remaining areas south of I-40 can expect
1 to 3 inches of rainfall. We already have several flash flood and
flood products out this morning, and expect to continue to be
issuing those. Remember in flooding, if you encounter areas of
moving or standing water on your commute, TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!
Rainfall should dwindle as the cold front pushes through Tennessee
tonight into early Sunday.

Behind this stout cold front, temperatures will fall so rapidly that
it is possible to see some flurries or wintry mix with wrap-around
moisture after the rain has passed. We are not expecting any
accumulations or impacts with this wintry precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

We will (thankfully) have an opportunity to dry out into mid week
with quiet weather but chilly temperatures with highs in the 30s and
40s. Our next chance for precipitation comes in the form of wintry
precipitation mid-week. Guidance continues to come into agreement
about the potential for accumulating snowfall in middle Tennessee
next week,  with another cold front that will plunge our
temperatures even further below normal. In regards to the snow,
confidence is low in specifics currently, so stay tuned to the
forecast as it becomes more clear in guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

With our current weather system on the doorstep, a mix of IFR to
MVFR cigs will become mainly IFR as a line of showers and
thunderstorms moves through the mid-state. While the line will
only last for an hour or two at each terminal tonight, lingering
showers and storms will persist for a couple of hours after the
line. IFR should remain. Improvement to MVFR should occur
towards the end of the cycle for all terminals.

Winds will be gusty from the south ahead of the line with a shift
to the northwest behind the line. Gusts of 25-30 kts will be
common, but could be higher with the line of storms for a short
period of time as the line moves through any given mid-state
terminal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      36  43  23  40 / 100  50   0   0
Clarksville    33  36  20  37 / 100  30   0   0
Crossville     33  50  19  39 / 100  50  10   0
Columbia       35  44  22  42 / 100  20   0   0
Cookeville     34  47  21  38 / 100  60  10   0
Jamestown      33  49  19  37 / 100  60  10   0
Lawrenceburg   36  45  22  42 / 100  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   36  45  22  41 / 100  30   0   0
Waverly        31  38  21  39 / 100  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-
Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Giles-
Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-
Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-
White-Williamson-Wilson.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for
Coffee-Cumberland-Fentress-Grundy-Overton-Pickett-Putnam-Van
Buren-Warren-White.

&&

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Unger

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1122 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 PM     Flash Flood      7 N Gallatin            36.48N 86.47W
02/15/2025                   Sumner             TN   Emergency Mngr

            Car stalled in flood waters at South Tunnel
            Rd. and Old Gallatin Rd. in Portland.

&&

APB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1130 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

TNZ094-095-160615-
Lawrence TN-Giles TN-
1130 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN LAWRENCE AND GILES
COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM CST...

At 1129 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Loretto, or 13 miles south of Lawrenceburg, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceburg, Pulaski, Loretto, Ardmore, St. Joseph, Elkton, Minor
Hill, Goodspring, Leoma, Frankewing, and Prospect.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 1 and 22.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 8757 3524 8749 3534 8691 3534 8690
      3532 8691 3531 8689 3530 8686 3532 8685
      3531 8684 3529 8683 3499 8684
TIME...MOT...LOC 0529Z 261DEG 40KT 3507 8741

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

10

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1134 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 PM     Flood            Goodlettsville          36.33N 86.70W
02/15/2025                   Sumner             TN   Trained Spotter

            I-65 S on-ramp in Goodlettsville closed due
            to flooding.

&&

CC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1141 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 PM     Flash Flood      5 S Portland            36.51N 86.53W
02/15/2025                   Sumner             TN   Emergency Mngr

            Swift water rescue at 700 block of Brandy
            Hollow in Portland.

&&

APB