Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Nashville, TN

453 
WWUS54 KOHX 160145
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
745 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

TNC161-160200-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-250216T0200Z/
Stewart TN-
745 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN STEWART COUNTY...

At 745 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Wranglers Campground, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Stewart County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CST for Middle
Tennessee.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3656 8804 3668 8804 3668 8802 3666 8785
      3663 8785 3664 8778 3663 8778
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 241DEG 45KT 3667 8789 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

40/Sizemore

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
537 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 532 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

- Significant flooding (both river and flash flooding) is expected
  in middle Tennessee tonight, mainly in northwestern middle
  Tennessee.

- Severe weather is expected tonight. Main impacts are damaging
  winds and tornadoes, with the greatest threat area west of I-24.

- Temperatures plummet next week, with a chance for snow entering
  the forecast. Confidence is on the low side with specifics
  currently.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

Rain has been falling already for most of the morning in middle
Tennessee, with some thunderstorms embedded in these warm frontal
showers. This axis of precipitation is expected to shift more NW as
the stationary front to our north wobbles throughout the day. This
will leave a period of clearing for our potential severe threat this
evening. As the low pressure system approaches from the west, moist
dewpoints are expected to drive north into Tennessee. With the surge
of moisture, the instability axis in current guidance also appears
to be further north than previous guidance. The LLJ continues to be
screaming its presence over the state with wind speeds of 70 knots,
providing ample shear into the setup. Considering that instability
is the parameter I was least confident on yesterday, I would say
that the severe threat overall has increased. This is reflected by
the enhanced risk now touching portions of Humphreys, Perry, and
Wayne counties this afternoon and evening. Main impacts I am
concerned about would be damaging wind gusts up to 70 MPH possible
and tornadoes. These would be greatest in any discrete cells that
form in the warm sector ahead of the cold front this evening, but we
cannot rule out QLCS tornadoes with such a stout cold front
approaching a favorable environment. Expect for the severe weather
to begin in the west around 4PM, and exiting middle Tennessee in the
early morning hours Sunday. With a nocturnal severe threat, remember
to have multiple ways of receiving warnings and be weather aware.

Another layer of complexity to this threat today is the flooding
risk. The moist airmass continues to crank out rainfall totals
exceeding expectations this morning, with some locations in the
north already receiving 3 inches of precipitation. As the front
wobbles, highest QPF will shift to the northwestern area of middle
Tennessee. Rainfall totals in this area are expected to be in the
range of 5 to 7 inches, with areas north of I-40 looking at 3 to 5
inches of accumulation. The remaining areas south of I-40 can expect
1 to 3 inches of rainfall. We already have several flash flood and
flood products out this morning, and expect to continue to be
issuing those. Remember in flooding, if you encounter areas of
moving or standing water on your commute, TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!
Rainfall should dwindle as the cold front pushes through Tennessee
tonight into early Sunday.

Behind this stout cold front, temperatures will fall so rapidly that
it is possible to see some flurries or wintry mix with wrap-around
moisture after the rain has passed. We are not expecting any
accumulations or impacts with this wintry precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

We will (thankfully) have an opportunity to dry out into mid week
with quiet weather but chilly temperatures with highs in the 30s and
40s. Our next chance for precipitation comes in the form of wintry
precipitation mid-week. Guidance continues to come into agreement
about the potential for accumulating snowfall in middle Tennessee
next week,  with another cold front that will plunge our
temperatures even further below normal. In regards to the snow,
confidence is low in specifics currently, so stay tuned to the
forecast as it becomes more clear in guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

With our current weather system on the doorstep, a mix of IFR to
MVFR cigs will become mainly IFR as a line of showers and
thunderstorms moves through the mid-state. While the line will
only last for an hour or two at each terminal tonight, lingering
showers and storms will persist for a couple of hours after the
line. IFR should remain. Improvement to MVFR should occur
towards the end of the cycle for all terminals.

Winds will be gusty from the south ahead of the line with a shift
to the northwest behind the line. Gusts of 25-30 kts will be
common, but could be higher with the line of storms for a short
period of time as the line moves through any given mid-state
terminal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      36  43  23  40 / 100  20   0   0
Clarksville    33  36  20  37 / 100  30   0   0
Crossville     33  50  19  39 / 100  40  10   0
Columbia       35  44  22  42 / 100   0   0   0
Cookeville     34  47  21  38 / 100  40  10   0
Jamestown      33  49  19  37 / 100  50  10   0
Lawrenceburg   36  45  22  42 / 100   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   36  45  22  41 / 100  10   0   0
Waverly        31  38  21  39 / 100  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for TNZ005>011-023>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for
TNZ011-032>034-065-066-077>080.

&&

SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Unger

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
627 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     Flash Flood      4 W Clarksville         36.57N 87.42W
02/15/2025                   Montgomery         TN   Emergency Mngr

            Corrects previous flood report from 4 W
            Clarksville. Water in a couple houses
            earlier today. Time is estimated.

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
630 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 AM     Flash Flood      3 N Hendersonville      36.34N 86.59W
02/15/2025                   Sumner             TN   Trained Spotter

            Drakes Creek Road and Stop 30 Road in
            Hendersonville was closed.

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
634 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 AM     Flash Flood      6 SSE Livingston        36.31N 85.28W
02/15/2025                   Overton            TN   Emergency Mngr

            Flash flooding over Mark Speck Road. Delayed
            report.

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
638 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 PM     Flash Flood      2 E Orlinda             36.60N 86.63W
02/15/2025                   Robertson          TN   Emergency Mngr

            Delayed report. Starks Road in Cross Plaines
            with water running over it.

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
644 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     Flash Flood      1 N Springfield         36.52N 86.88W
02/15/2025                   Robertson          TN   Emergency Mngr

            Delayed Report. Water inundating the
            fairgrounds from Sulpher Fork Creek.

&&

RRH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
647 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     Flash Flood      6 S Tennessee Ridge     36.23N 87.77W
02/15/2025                   Humphreys          TN   Amateur Radio

            Delayed Report. Flooding on Tennessee Ridge
            Road at White Oak Creek north of Waverly.
            Road is impassable.

&&

RRH