River Flood Warning 4, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

- The flash flood threat continues this morning as moderate to
  heavy rainfall moves through the area and local rivers rise. Flood
  Watch remains in effect until 12 PM today.

- A wintry mix/snow showers will be possible this afternoon.
  Accumulation is unlikely, but higher elevations could see a few
  tenths of an inch.

- Confidence is increasing in the potential for accumulating snow
  on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 111 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

The main line of thunderstorms continues to move east, and will exit
off the Cumberland Plateau in the next hour or so. Behind the line
is a massive shield of rain that will continue throughout the
night and into the early morning. Our northwest counties have seen
the most rainfall today with 4-6 inches so far. An additional 1
to 2 inches will be possible with this final round of rain before
drier air start moving in with the incoming cold front. As the
surface low moves off to the northeast later today, temperatures
will rapidly drop behind the front and some wrap-around moisture
will lead to a wintry mix transitioning to snow showers mainly
north of I-40. While accumulation appears unlikely with such warm
and saturated grounds, if enough moisture can wring out, a couple
tenths of inch may be possible over the northeast this evening.

Temperatures this afternoon will be much cooler than we've
experienced in the last week with afternoon temps only in the mid
30s and overnight lows in the upper teens to low 20s. We will have a
chance to dry out Monday and Tuesday, but it's going to be cold
with similar highs/lows as today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 111 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

For the long term, we shift our focus to the next system that will
likely bring some accumulating snowfall to middle TN Wednesday. The
current NBM probabilities of at least 2 inches or more of snow is
40% south of I-40, and between 60-80% north of I-40. The
probability of 4 inches or more is 50-70% north of I-40. Sampling
a few model soundings from both the NAM and the GFS, temperature
profiles are well below freezing with ample moisture in the
dendritic growth zone, so as of now, this looks to be an all snow
event. As the trough exits off to the east Thursday, bitterly cold
temperatures will settle in at the surface as high pressure
builds in from the midwest. We will remain dry through the
remainder of the forecast period, but again, it will be cold.
Current high temperature forecast has the majority of middle TN
aside from the far southern counties below freezing for 48+ hours
for Wednesday-Thursday. Some slight warming will occur Saturday
and Sunday as upper level ridging builds over the Ohio River
Valley with temperatures getting back into the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

The main line of thunderstorms is currently impacting CSV,
bringing gusty winds near 30 kts. Behind the line, a shield of
moderate to heavy rain will continue through the next 3 to 4
hours, clearing from west to east as a cold front ushers into the
area. A brief light wintry mix is possible this afternoon, but any
accumulation is very unlikely. Current IFR cigs will lift to MVFR
later this morning and will remain at that threshold for all
terminals through the remainder of the taf period.

Winds are shifting northwesterly behind the front with sustained
speeds between 10-15 kts and gusts near 25-30 kts. Winds will
relax below 10 kts after 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      43  23  39  26 /  30   0   0   0
Clarksville    36  20  35  23 /  30   0   0   0
Crossville     50  18  38  22 /  50   0   0   0
Columbia       43  23  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
Cookeville     47  21  38  23 /  60   0   0   0
Jamestown      51  18  36  21 /  70   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   45  23  41  24 /  10   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   45  22  41  24 /  20   0   0   0
Waverly        37  21  39  23 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until noon CST today for TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-
075-077>080-093>095.

Wind Advisory until noon CST today for TNZ011-032>034-065-066-
077>080.

&&

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Baggett

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1134 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 PM     Flood            Goodlettsville          36.33N 86.70W
02/15/2025                   Sumner             TN   Trained Spotter

            I-65 S on-ramp in Goodlettsville closed due
            to flooding.

&&

CC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1141 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 PM     Flash Flood      5 S Portland            36.51N 86.53W
02/15/2025                   Sumner             TN   Emergency Mngr

            Swift water rescue at 700 block of Brandy
            Hollow in Portland.

&&

APB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1227 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     8 WSW Minor Hill        35.01N 87.30W
02/16/2025                   Lawrence           TN   Emergency Mngr

            Pole barn under construction blown onto pick
            up. Several pine trees broken off at 15 ft
            from ground.

&&

CC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1239 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     8 WSW Minor Hill        35.01N 87.30W
02/15/2025                   Lawrence           TN   Emergency Mngr

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 8
            WSW Minor Hill. Pole barn under construction
            blown onto pick up. Several pine trees
            broken off at 15 ft from ground. Time of
            damage is radar estimated.

&&

CC

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