Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN
1246 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

- There is an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe storms
  today. All modes of severe weather are possible, including
  damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.

- Cooler temperatures move over the area Wednesday and through
  early next week along with some chances for showers and
  thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Our previously forecasted morning/early afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are moving through Middle TN. As expected, the
environment is not quite primed enough for any widespread severe
storms. At this time, biggest impacts with any of these storms
look to be gusty winds and heavy downpours as the line of storms
arrive.

We continue to monitor the severe threat with another round of
storms is forecasted to impact our area later this afternoon through
the evening. The question is, how much is the atmosphere going to
recover from this mornings convection before the next round.
Satellite imagery shows a sharp gradient of clear skies over W TN,
just behind this mornings convection. This dry slot is expected to
push east ahead of our advancing mid-level trough. As it does so,
surface instability should increase. Additionally, strong deep-
layer shear and surface to mid-level lapse rates will increase through
the late afternoon. With these factors in place, this afternoon
and evening's convection will have a better potential for severe
storms.

Storms move out of the area by 10 pm tonight, ushering in cooler
and dryer air. Wednesday looks reasonably dry with highs in the
upper 70s. Late Wednesday night, a shortwave lifts to the NE and
brings increasing showers and thunderstorm chances across the SW.
Not seeing any severe storm concerns with these at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Thursday and Friday remain mostly dry as a ridge builds to the
SW. Cooler temperatures also stick around with highs in the 70s.
Middle TN will remain on the backside of the ridge by the weekend
with a short wave rolling over the ridge Sunday. This will
introduce better rain chances back into the forecast, sticking
around through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Mixed bag this afternoon with SRB/CSV seeing showers and
thunderstorms with some marginal CIGs, while CKV/BNA/MQY are
seeing clearing skies behind a line of storms. Widespread VFR
conditions will prevail until after 21z when another round of
showers and thunderstorms move through the area. Storms have the
potential to be severe with damaging winds, large hail, and
tornadoes. Clearing conditions return after 00z. Strong NW winds
develops after 12z tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  81  60  77 /  60   0  20  20
Clarksville    60  78  58  74 /  40   0  20  10
Crossville     61  73  54  70 /  80  10  10  30
Columbia       61  80  59  77 /  50   0  20  20
Cookeville     62  75  56  71 /  80   0  10  30
Jamestown      60  74  53  70 /  90   0  10  40
Lawrenceburg   61  79  58  77 /  60   0  20  20
Murfreesboro   63  80  58  77 /  70   0  20  20
Waverly        57  78  57  74 /  40   0  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Cravens

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
429 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     Hail             9 SE Fairview           35.90N 87.00W
05/20/2025  E2.00 Inch       Williamson         TN   Public

            Estimated 2 inch hail in Leipers Fork. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
446 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     Hail             3 SSW Franklin          35.89N 86.86W
05/20/2025  E1.25 Inch       Williamson         TN   Amateur Radio

            Quarter to half dollar size hail reported
            along Heathersett Drive in Dallas Downs.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
449 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 W Dover               36.48N 87.94W
05/20/2025                   Stewart            TN   Emergency Mngr

            Trees and powerlines down at Highway 79 and
            Onion Hill west of Dover.

&&