Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN
1246 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1237 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

- There is an enhanced risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe storms
  today. All modes of severe weather are possible, including
  damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes.

- Cooler temperatures move over the area Wednesday and through
  early next week along with some chances for showers and
  thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Our previously forecasted morning/early afternoon showers and
thunderstorms are moving through Middle TN. As expected, the
environment is not quite primed enough for any widespread severe
storms. At this time, biggest impacts with any of these storms
look to be gusty winds and heavy downpours as the line of storms
arrive.

We continue to monitor the severe threat with another round of
storms is forecasted to impact our area later this afternoon through
the evening. The question is, how much is the atmosphere going to
recover from this mornings convection before the next round.
Satellite imagery shows a sharp gradient of clear skies over W TN,
just behind this mornings convection. This dry slot is expected to
push east ahead of our advancing mid-level trough. As it does so,
surface instability should increase. Additionally, strong deep-
layer shear and surface to mid-level lapse rates will increase through
the late afternoon. With these factors in place, this afternoon
and evening's convection will have a better potential for severe
storms.

Storms move out of the area by 10 pm tonight, ushering in cooler
and dryer air. Wednesday looks reasonably dry with highs in the
upper 70s. Late Wednesday night, a shortwave lifts to the NE and
brings increasing showers and thunderstorm chances across the SW.
Not seeing any severe storm concerns with these at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1055 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Thursday and Friday remain mostly dry as a ridge builds to the
SW. Cooler temperatures also stick around with highs in the 70s.
Middle TN will remain on the backside of the ridge by the weekend
with a short wave rolling over the ridge Sunday. This will
introduce better rain chances back into the forecast, sticking
around through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Mixed bag this afternoon with SRB/CSV seeing showers and
thunderstorms with some marginal CIGs, while CKV/BNA/MQY are
seeing clearing skies behind a line of storms. Widespread VFR
conditions will prevail until after 21z when another round of
showers and thunderstorms move through the area. Storms have the
potential to be severe with damaging winds, large hail, and
tornadoes. Clearing conditions return after 00z. Strong NW winds
develops after 12z tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  81  60  77 /  60   0  20  20
Clarksville    60  78  58  74 /  40   0  20  10
Crossville     61  73  54  70 /  80  10  10  30
Columbia       61  80  59  77 /  50   0  20  20
Cookeville     62  75  56  71 /  80   0  10  30
Jamestown      60  74  53  70 /  90   0  10  40
Lawrenceburg   61  79  58  77 /  60   0  20  20
Murfreesboro   63  80  58  77 /  70   0  20  20
Waverly        57  78  57  74 /  40   0  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Cravens
AVIATION.....Cravens

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN
1020 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

TNZ025>027-057-059-201600-
Hickman TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Davidson TN-Cheatham TN-
1020 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN DAVIDSON...SOUTHEASTERN
DICKSON...NORTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON...SOUTHEASTERN CHEATHAM AND
NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 AM CDT...

At 1020 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Dickson to near Centerville. Movement was
east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Forest Hills, Bon Aqua, Belle Meade, Bells Bend, Primm
Springs, Lyles, Whites Creek, Bellevue, and Natchez Trace At Highway
96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3631 8680 3587 8682 3581 8708 3585 8721
      3577 8722 3573 8741 3612 8739
TIME...MOT...LOC 1520Z 252DEG 37KT 3612 8734 3577 8736

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DGS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Morristown TN
1041 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

TNZ057-058-060-093-094-201630-
Hickman TN-Lawrence TN-Wayne TN-Lewis TN-Maury TN-
1041 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LEWIS...NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...
NORTHERN LAWRENCE...WESTERN MAURY AND SOUTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES
THROUGH 1130 AM CDT...

At 1041 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Waynesboro, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gordonsburg, Kimmins, Henryville, Hohenwald, Summertown, Mount
Pleasant, Hampshire, and Williamsport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 8768 3557 8765 3561 8766 3580 8721
      3545 8708 3546 8713 3542 8721 3532 8772
TIME...MOT...LOC 1541Z 249DEG 43KT 3543 8766

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DGS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
126 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

TNZ094-095-201900-
Lawrence TN-Giles TN-
126 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Lawrence and southwestern Giles Counties through 200 PM CDT...

At 125 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Loretto, or 10 miles south of Lawrenceburg, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Goodspring, Leoma, Pulaski, Minor Hill, Loretto, and Lawrenceburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8739 3516 8745 3532 8702 3506 8692
      3500 8733
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 252DEG 26KT 3510 8734

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
159 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

TNZ095-201930-
Giles TN-
159 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Giles
County through 230 PM CDT...

At 158 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pulaski, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Goodspring, Frankewing, Pulaski, and Elkton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 8716 3521 8719 3527 8683 3506 8683
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 261DEG 26KT 3515 8705

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Shamburger