Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1133 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional heavy rainfall, along with a round or two of
  thunderstorms, through tonight will continue the ongoing
  significant flash flooding and river flooding event.

- Rain changing to light snow Sunday morning with widely scattered
  snow showers persisting into the evening. Lingering moisture
  freezing to roadways could lead to slippery travel at some
  locations Sunday evening and night.

- A moderate to heavy accumulating snowfall is possible for the
  middle of the upcoming work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025

The forecast largely remains on track this evening. A wide swath
of 2-4" of rainfall has already occurred across much of eastern
Kentucky, especially south of an Irvine to Pikeville line.
Widespread Areal Flood and River Flood Warnings are in effect
across this region.

As of 9 PM, scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms
continue generally north of a Mount Vernon to Jackson to Pleasant
line. This activity is associated with a broad area of isentropic
upglide in the vicinity of a surface warm front. Activity south of
this line is more isolated in nature.

Heading into the overnight period, we remain confident that
surface low pressure will track right over eastern Kentucky with a
cold front trailing the low. A forced, thin line of convection
will occur along the front albeit in an area of rather weak
instability (MUCAPE values generally less than 300 J/kg).

Despite the weak instability, we are still expecting momentum
transfer to result in wind gusts of 30-40 mph with this line.
Isolated gusts to 50 mph will be possible west of a Mount Vernon
to Williamsburg line where the "highest" instability will be
located.

Additional rainfall amounts overnight will generally range from
0.50" to 1.50" with the highest amounts north of a Mount Sterling
to Morehead line.

As we head into Sunday morning, confidence continues to increase
that rain will change to light snow as cold air rushes in behind
that cold front. We will continue to look at 00Z model data to
determine the potential for light snow accumulations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025

Rainfall/Flooding - Ongoing rainfall and flooding event remains on
track. Currently, moderate to heavy rainfall is occurring in a west
to east oriented zone across the central CWA where the warm front
is stalled. The northern and southern portions of the CWA are
seeing lighter rain with some occasional breaks. Training should
continue through the central CWA through late afternoon/early
evening before it shifts northward ahead of the parent surface
low. As the low moves through the area, a line of convection is
expected to move through from around midnight tonight to just
before sunrise Sunday. Additional rainfall through tonight is
forecast to by 1-2" over the southern CWA and 2-3 inches over the
central and northern CWA. Central and northern portions of the CWA
could see locally higher amounts up to 3-5 inches of additional
rainfall as seen in HREF LPMM values. This will continue and
enhance the ongoing flooding situation.

There is a marginal severe risk over the southwestern CWA tonight,
mainly for winds of 50-60 mph. SPC has the risk at 5% for winds,
which makes sense given linear convective mode. Overall expect storm
strength to be diminishing as the line of storms moves into the
area, but thunderstorms with gusty winds will be possible across the
entire area.

Gusty winds will be possible tonight into Sunday behind the front
front on the back side of the system. A few gusts of 40-45 mph are
possible over higher terrain, but not expecting to reach Wind
Advisory criteria at this time.

Behind the front, expected temperatures to be warmest (low to mid
50s) in the morning on Sunday, falling through the day to the mid to
upper 30s by noon and the mid to upper 20s by late Sunday evening.

As the upper trough moves through the area Sunday, snow showers will
develop that will linger into early Sunday night. Most areas could
see a dusting, with some higher terrain areas seeing up to an inch
of snow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025

Monday and Tuesday are currently forecast to be dry with highs
mainly in the 20s and Monday night lows in the upper teens to mid
20s.

Attention then turns to a potential moderate to heavy snowfall
event and colder temperatures starting Tuesday night. Current
forecast calls for snow Tuesday night into Thursday morning.
Several inches of snowfall is possible, but uncertainty remains
(especially with finer details).

NBM snowfall probabilities:

>=1": 70-90%
>=2": 60-80%
>=4": 30-60%
>=6": 20-40%

Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index shows the following
impact potentials:

At least minor impacts: 60-80%
At least moderate impacts: 20-40%

Look for highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s Wednesday, then in the
20s on Thursday. Lows are forecast to be in the teens Wednesday
night (wind chills in the single digits to low teens), followed by
lows in the single digits Thursday night but with light winds.

Saturday is forecast to see lows in the teens and highs in the
30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 10PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025

A strong low pressure system will continue to bring multiple
aviation impacts to eastern Kentucky through Sunday. A large band
of rain showers will bring MVFR and brief IFR conditions to the
area overnight. Brief wind gusts up to 35 knots are also expected
along a passing cold front. There is still a slight chance (around
20%) of isolated thunderstorms. Low-level wind shear will persist
outside of the thunderstorms.

The rain will then change to snow Sunday morning with IFR
conditions expected. The steadier snow will then taper to widely
scattered snow showers in the afternoon with MVFR becoming
prevailing. Brisk and gusty west winds will occur for the entire
day. Gusts around 25 knots will be common.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...WFO SGF
SHORT TERM...WFO SGF
LONG TERM...WFO SGF
AVIATION...WFO SGF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
841 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-170145-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
841 PM EST Sat Feb 15 2025

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

Flood Warnings and Watches.

Periods of heavy rainfall, including a few thunderstorms, will
continue overnight. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are
expected. However, in locations where heavier showers and
thunderstorms are more persistent, rainfall totals could approach or
exceed 5 inches and cause scattered to numerous instances of flash
flooding.

A thin line of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms will produce
wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph as it pushes east across the area between
midnight and 4 AM. Localized gusts up to 50 mph will be possible west
of a Mount Vernon to Williamsburg line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

As runoff from heavy rainfall enters the larger creeks and rivers,
significant rises are likely to lead to flooding.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected on Sunday while temperatures
fall back to near or below freezing.

Rain will change to light snow Sunday morning with widely scattered
snow showers then persisting into Sunday evening. The snow in
addition to freezing of lingering moisture on roadways may lead to
slick spots and black ice at some locations Sunday evening and
night.

A moderate to heavy accumulating snow is possible next Tuesday night
through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

JKL

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