Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
641 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers/storms through this evening. A
  handful of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, along
  with areas of heavy rainfall and increased flooding concerns,
  mainly along and east-southeast of the KS Turnpike.

- Additional off-and-on shower/storm chances late Wednesday
  night through the weekend, although uncertainty remains high
  surrounding finer details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING:

Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms will continue across the region today
through this evening, as a potent upper low approaches from the southwest, and a
strong cold front moves in from the northwest, amidst a moist and weakly/uncapped
airmass. Isolated instances of marginally severe storms are possible this morning,
but thinking greater chances will hold off until early afternoon and persist through
the evening, mainly along and east-southeast of the KS Turnpike, as instability
increases ahead of the approaching cold front. The combination of modest to strong
instability and weak to modest deep layer shear should support mostly a damaging
wind threat (60-70 mph winds) with the strongest activity, although could see
isolated instances of large hail (likely no larger than half-dollars) due to the
magnitude of buoyancy. Any hail threat would likely be earlier in the event before
numerous cell mergers encourages mostly upscale growth.

Additionally, the strong forcing in conjunction with anomalously high precipitable
waters and mid/upper flow nearly parallel to the frontal zone will also support areas
of heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns, mainly this afternoon-evening
from roughly the KS Turnpike on east-southeast. 1-3 inch rainfall amounts are
expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Widespread extreme rainfall amounts
(e.g. greater than 3-4 inches) are unlikely though given the relatively fast-moving
nature of the cold front. Nevertheless, since soils are still fairly saturated from
recent heavy rainfall, rises in rivers/streams are likely, with the greatest
potential for river/stream levels reaching or exceeding flood stage over southeast
Kansas. The flood watch currently in place looks good, with no plans of expanding
at this time.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND:

Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a low-predictability
pattern setting up by mid to late week through the weekend, with off-and-on chances
for showers and thunderstorms across the region. The culprits will be various
low-amplitude shortwaves interacting with a wobbly frontal zone across the region,
amidst anomalously high precipitable waters. A seasonable combination of instability
and deep layer shear will support off-and-on severe weather chances, with the
anomalous PWs supporting locally heavy rainfall and potential flooding concerns.
Stay tuned as we continue to refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES:

A rather significant cool down is expected from northwest to southeast today in wake
of the strong cold front, with temperatures likely falling into the 50s and 60s
behind the front. Below average temperatures will continue Wednesday, with daytime
highs in the 70s likely. A slow warm up back closer to average is expected through
late week and into next weekend, with off-and-on chances for showers/storms likely
preventing widespread above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist
across central and eastern Kansas today, gradually exiting
east-southeast Kansas by late evening, as a strong cold front
approaches from the northwest, and an upper trough approaches
from the southwest. Thinking the greatest potential for
severe storms will be from roughly the KS Turnpike on east
and southeast from about midday through 11 PM, with the main
threats being 60-70 mph winds and quarter size hail, along with
torrential downpours. Additionally, gusty north winds and low
MVFR to IFR ceilings will spread southeast across the area
today and this evening in wake of the cold front.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ053-069>072-
092>096-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
345 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-040845-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-
Chase-Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-
Harper-Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-
Labette-
345 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas, and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist across
the region today through this evening. A handful of strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, capable of 65 mph winds and quarter size
hail, along with areas of heavy rainfall and localized flooding.
The greatest potential will be generally along and southeast of the
Kansas Turnpike between 1 PM and 11 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Off-and-on chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible from
late Wednesday night through the weekend. Stay tuned as we continue
to refine forecast details in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of severe weather, heavy rainfall, and flooding are always
greatly appreciated.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1130 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1122 AM     Flash Flood      Valley Center           37.83N 97.37W
06/03/2025                   Sedgwick           KS   Emergency Mngr

            Vehicles stuck in high water near the
            intersection of Main and Emporia.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
1132 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

KSZ053-069-070-031700-
Butler-Greenwood-Chase-
1132 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Chase,
northeastern Butler and northwestern Greenwood Counties through NOON
CDT
...

At 1131 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles south of Cottonwood Falls to 16 miles
northwest of Eureka. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Chase, northeastern Butler and northwestern Greenwood Counties,
including the following locations: Bazaar...Saffordville...Matfield
Green...Thrall and Cassoday.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 93 and 115.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9636 3817 9631 3797 9631 3787 9664
      3823 9663 3844 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 221DEG 35KT 3821 9657 3798 9652

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TOP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1135 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     Flood            Whitewater              37.96N 97.15W
06/03/2025                   Butler             KS   Emergency Mngr

            Street flooding reported throughout the town
            of Whitewater.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1144 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

KSZ068-069-083-031730-
Butler KS-Harvey KS-Sedgwick KS-
1144 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN SEDGWICK...SOUTH CENTRAL
HARVEY AND WEST CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTIES THROUGH 1230 PM CDT...

At 1143 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 3
miles west of Clearwater, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wichita around 1150 AM CDT.
  Haysville and Eisenhower National Airport around 1155 AM CDT.
  Downtown Wichita around 1200 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Park City, Bel
Aire, Eastborough, East Wichita, Kechi and Northeast Wichita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 9747 3748 9767 3796 9742 3778 9678
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 222DEG 42KT 3751 9755

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

DDC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1152 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     Flood            1 SE East Wichita       37.67N 97.25W
06/03/2025                   Sedgwick           KS   Emergency Mngr

            Report of stalled vehicle due to high water.

&&

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