River Flood Warning 9, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
641 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers/storms through this evening. A
  handful of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, along
  with areas of heavy rainfall and increased flooding concerns,
  mainly along and east-southeast of the KS Turnpike.

- Additional off-and-on shower/storm chances late Wednesday
  night through the weekend, although uncertainty remains high
  surrounding finer details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING:

Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms will continue across the region today
through this evening, as a potent upper low approaches from the southwest, and a
strong cold front moves in from the northwest, amidst a moist and weakly/uncapped
airmass. Isolated instances of marginally severe storms are possible this morning,
but thinking greater chances will hold off until early afternoon and persist through
the evening, mainly along and east-southeast of the KS Turnpike, as instability
increases ahead of the approaching cold front. The combination of modest to strong
instability and weak to modest deep layer shear should support mostly a damaging
wind threat (60-70 mph winds) with the strongest activity, although could see
isolated instances of large hail (likely no larger than half-dollars) due to the
magnitude of buoyancy. Any hail threat would likely be earlier in the event before
numerous cell mergers encourages mostly upscale growth.

Additionally, the strong forcing in conjunction with anomalously high precipitable
waters and mid/upper flow nearly parallel to the frontal zone will also support areas
of heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns, mainly this afternoon-evening
from roughly the KS Turnpike on east-southeast. 1-3 inch rainfall amounts are
expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Widespread extreme rainfall amounts
(e.g. greater than 3-4 inches) are unlikely though given the relatively fast-moving
nature of the cold front. Nevertheless, since soils are still fairly saturated from
recent heavy rainfall, rises in rivers/streams are likely, with the greatest
potential for river/stream levels reaching or exceeding flood stage over southeast
Kansas. The flood watch currently in place looks good, with no plans of expanding
at this time.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND:

Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a low-predictability
pattern setting up by mid to late week through the weekend, with off-and-on chances
for showers and thunderstorms across the region. The culprits will be various
low-amplitude shortwaves interacting with a wobbly frontal zone across the region,
amidst anomalously high precipitable waters. A seasonable combination of instability
and deep layer shear will support off-and-on severe weather chances, with the
anomalous PWs supporting locally heavy rainfall and potential flooding concerns.
Stay tuned as we continue to refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES:

A rather significant cool down is expected from northwest to southeast today in wake
of the strong cold front, with temperatures likely falling into the 50s and 60s
behind the front. Below average temperatures will continue Wednesday, with daytime
highs in the 70s likely. A slow warm up back closer to average is expected through
late week and into next weekend, with off-and-on chances for showers/storms likely
preventing widespread above average temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist
across central and eastern Kansas today, gradually exiting
east-southeast Kansas by late evening, as a strong cold front
approaches from the northwest, and an upper trough approaches
from the southwest. Thinking the greatest potential for
severe storms will be from roughly the KS Turnpike on east
and southeast from about midday through 11 PM, with the main
threats being 60-70 mph winds and quarter size hail, along with
torrential downpours. Additionally, gusty north winds and low
MVFR to IFR ceilings will spread southeast across the area
today and this evening in wake of the cold front.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KSZ053-069>072-
092>096-098>100.

&&

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
345 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-040845-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-
Chase-Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-
Harper-Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-
Labette-
345 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas, and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist across
the region today through this evening. A handful of strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, capable of 65 mph winds and quarter size
hail, along with areas of heavy rainfall and localized flooding.
The greatest potential will be generally along and southeast of the
Kansas Turnpike between 1 PM and 11 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Off-and-on chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible from
late Wednesday night through the weekend. Stay tuned as we continue
to refine forecast details in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of severe weather, heavy rainfall, and flooding are always
greatly appreciated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
352 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

KSZ067-082-083-091-092-030930-
Reno-Harper-Sumner-Sedgwick-Kingman-
352 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Reno,
western Sedgwick, northeastern Harper, eastern Kingman and
northwestern Sumner Counties through 430 AM CDT
...

At 352 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles northeast of Kingman to 6 miles
northwest of Argonia. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Goddard, Cheney, Haven, Garden Plain, Mount Hope, Andale, Norwich,
and Viola.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3771 9809 3802 9771 3800 9770 3791 9770
      3791 9765 3756 9744 3730 9787
TIME...MOT...LOC 0852Z 220DEG 36KT 3768 9802 3734 9785

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TOP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
426 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

KSZ068-069-083-031000-
Butler-Harvey-Sedgwick-
426 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Sedgwick,
south central Harvey and west central Butler Counties through 500 AM
CDT
...

At 425 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Clearwater, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wichita, Andover, Haysville, Park City, Valley Center, Bel Aire,
Goddard, Maize, Clearwater, Sedgwick, Towanda, Colwich, Benton,
Garden Plain, Downtown Wichita, Kechi, Eastborough, West Wichita,
East Wichita, and Eisenhower National Airport.

This includes Interstate 135 near mile marker 25.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 9771 3799 9739 3781 9698 3747 9749
      3748 9751
TIME...MOT...LOC 0925Z 220DEG 36KT 3757 9749

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
520 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

KSZ051-052-068-069-083-031100-
Butler-McPherson-Harvey-Marion-Sedgwick-
520 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
McPherson, northeastern Sedgwick, eastern Harvey, northwestern Butler
and southern Marion Counties through 600 AM CDT
...

At 520 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Moundridge to near North Newton to near
Colwich. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Park City, Valley Center, Hesston, Maize, Hillsboro, Marion,
North Newton, Moundridge, Sedgwick, Peabody, Whitewater, Florence,
Goessel, Potwin, Walton, and Elbing.

This includes Interstate 135 between mile markers 25 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3840 9705 3824 9684 3791 9700 3778 9752
      3804 9744 3822 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 1020Z 246DEG 38KT 3818 9750 3806 9738 3781 9751

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TOP