Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1245 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Isolated convection forming ahead of the main squall line will
pose the highest risk for strong tornadoes over the next few
hours. Otherwise, squall line will sweep across much of the area
except possibly far southeast Oklahoma overnight, with damaging
winds and some embedded tornado threat. Made minor changes to pops
over the next few hours, with the rest of the forecast on track at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Tuesday is expected to be a relatively quiet day weather-wise across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas as weak high pressure prevails. The next chance of storms will come
on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. These storms will likely fire
up earlier in the day near the cold front approaching Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma
by early afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be possible as this system moves
through the area as well.

Dry weather is forecast later in the week and into the weekend with temperatures near
normal for this time of year. Shower and storm chances increase late in the weekend
with the approach of a mid-level shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024
TSRA had cleared KBVO and VFR elements are expected to prevail at
that site for the valid period. TSRA at KTUL/KRVS to end early
in the period, and may be followed with a brief period of MVFR
cigs. From there, VFR elements are expected to prevail for the
remainder of the period. More uncertainty to timing/duration of
convection at KMLC so will just add a tempo group for a few hours
from 07z-09z and will include a period of MVFR cigs through 15z.
VFR elements to prevail for the remainder of the period. Similar
time frame and like elements expected across the AR sites, though
tempo groups at KFSM will go an hour or so later. Expect VFR
elements to prevail after 15z at the AR sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  61  83  53 /  10  10  30   0
FSM   86  65  87  57 /  10   0  60  40
MLC   85  66  86  56 /  10   0  30  20
BVO   81  56  81  48 /  10  10  20   0
FYV   83  61  83  51 /  10  10  70  30
BYV   82  59  82  53 /  10   0  70  30
MKO   81  61  84  53 /  10  10  50  20
MIO   80  58  80  50 /  10  10  60  10
F10   82  62  85  53 /  10  10  30  10
HHW   84  66  85  59 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>067.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
519 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
519 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM..

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms have developed across western Oklahoma as of
late afternoon. These storms will spread east and expand in
coverage by early evening. Severe weather is expected into
northeast Oklahoma by early to mid evening and will steadily
spread east through the early morning hours Tuesday. Conditions
will support significant severe weather, especially during the
evening into early morning hours. Tornadoes are likely, especially
during the evening hours, including the risk for strong long
track tornadoes. Additionally, large hail and locally damaging
winds are expected to occur, with this risk expanding east
through the early morning hours.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY through SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A few severe storms may develop as early as Wednesday morning,
but a more widespread severe weather risk is expected Wednesday
afternoon as a cold front sweeps east. Locations south and east
of Interstate 44 have the highest severe weather potential on
Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances will end on Thursday with dry and
mild weather for late week into the weekend.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is expected this evening into the overnight
hours. Additionally, given the potential for damaging storms,
the need for mutual aid and additional staffing should be
considered.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
252 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Mill Creek        35.36N 94.43W
05/07/2024                   Sebastian          AR   Emergency Mngr

            Trees down in Arkoma.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
254 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Van Buren               35.44N 94.35W
05/07/2024  E70 MPH          Crawford           AR   Amateur Radio

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
256 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Fort Smith              35.39N 94.40W
05/07/2024  M61 MPH          Sebastian          AR   ASOS

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
310 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Muskogee                35.75N 95.37W
05/07/2024                   Muskogee           OK   Emergency Mngr

            Several reports of tree damage, plus damage
            to carports and a couple of barns in
            Muskogee County. Time of report based on
            radar data.

&&

CAS

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