Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1020 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Isolated convection forming ahead of the main squall line will
pose the highest risk for strong tornadoes over the next few
hours. Otherwise, squall line will sweep across much of the area
except possibly far southeast Oklahoma overnight, with damaging
winds and some embedded tornado threat. Made minor changes to pops
over the next few hours, with the rest of the forecast on track at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Tuesday is expected to be a relatively quiet day weather-wise across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas as weak high pressure prevails. The next chance of storms will come
on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. These storms will likely fire
up earlier in the day near the cold front approaching Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma
by early afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be possible as this system moves
through the area as well.

Dry weather is forecast later in the week and into the weekend with temperatures near
normal for this time of year. Shower and storm chances increase late in the weekend
with the approach of a mid-level shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Low stratus has more or less risen above 3000 feet, though a few
obs below that can be expected this evening. May also see a few
showers through the early part of the forecast across far eastern
OK and western AR. Severe thunderstorms ongoing across western OK
will move into northeast OK while organizing into a squall line,
generally in the 02-04z time frame. This squall line will have
potential for dangerous wind gusts and large hail, with specific
threat becoming more clear as they move closer to TAF sites.
Farther east and south the threat of storms will persist through
around 10z. MVFR ceilings will persist for a time after the storms
pass, with VFR conditions return late Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  83  61  83 /  90  10  10  30
FSM   69  86  65  87 /  80  10   0  60
MLC   67  85  66  86 /  70  10   0  30
BVO   55  81  56  81 /  80  10  10  20
FYV   64  83  61  83 /  80  10  10  70
BYV   64  82  59  82 /  80  10   0  70
MKO   64  81  61  84 /  90  10  10  50
MIO   61  80  58  80 /  90  10  10  60
F10   63  82  62  85 /  90  10  10  30
HHW   69  84  66  85 /  40  10  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ054>067.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
519 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
519 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM..

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms have developed across western Oklahoma as of
late afternoon. These storms will spread east and expand in
coverage by early evening. Severe weather is expected into
northeast Oklahoma by early to mid evening and will steadily
spread east through the early morning hours Tuesday. Conditions
will support significant severe weather, especially during the
evening into early morning hours. Tornadoes are likely, especially
during the evening hours, including the risk for strong long
track tornadoes. Additionally, large hail and locally damaging
winds are expected to occur, with this risk expanding east
through the early morning hours.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY through SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A few severe storms may develop as early as Wednesday morning,
but a more widespread severe weather risk is expected Wednesday
afternoon as a cold front sweeps east. Locations south and east
of Interstate 44 have the highest severe weather potential on
Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances will end on Thursday with dry and
mild weather for late week into the weekend.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is expected this evening into the overnight
hours. Additionally, given the potential for damaging storms,
the need for mutual aid and additional staffing should be
considered.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
926 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     Tornado          2 E Hominy              36.41N 96.36W
05/06/2024                   Osage              OK   Emergency Mngr

            Hominy PD report relayed via Emergency
            Management.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1010 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     Tornado          Barnsdall               36.56N 96.16W
05/06/2024                   Osage              OK   Storm Chaser

            Multiple reports of structural damage and
            multiple chaser photos and videos of a
            tornado in and near Barnsdall.

&&

KAH

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1036 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Talala                  36.53N 95.70W
05/06/2024  M59 MPH          Rogers             OK   Mesonet

&&

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