Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1020 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Isolated convection forming ahead of the main squall line will
pose the highest risk for strong tornadoes over the next few
hours. Otherwise, squall line will sweep across much of the area
except possibly far southeast Oklahoma overnight, with damaging
winds and some embedded tornado threat. Made minor changes to pops
over the next few hours, with the rest of the forecast on track at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Tuesday is expected to be a relatively quiet day weather-wise across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas as weak high pressure prevails. The next chance of storms will come
on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. These storms will likely fire
up earlier in the day near the cold front approaching Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma
by early afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be possible as this system moves
through the area as well.

Dry weather is forecast later in the week and into the weekend with temperatures near
normal for this time of year. Shower and storm chances increase late in the weekend
with the approach of a mid-level shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Low stratus has more or less risen above 3000 feet, though a few
obs below that can be expected this evening. May also see a few
showers through the early part of the forecast across far eastern
OK and western AR. Severe thunderstorms ongoing across western OK
will move into northeast OK while organizing into a squall line,
generally in the 02-04z time frame. This squall line will have
potential for dangerous wind gusts and large hail, with specific
threat becoming more clear as they move closer to TAF sites.
Farther east and south the threat of storms will persist through
around 10z. MVFR ceilings will persist for a time after the storms
pass, with VFR conditions return late Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  83  61  83 /  90  10  10  30
FSM   69  86  65  87 /  80  10   0  60
MLC   67  85  66  86 /  70  10   0  30
BVO   55  81  56  81 /  80  10  10  20
FYV   64  83  61  83 /  80  10  10  70
BYV   64  82  59  82 /  80  10   0  70
MKO   64  81  61  84 /  90  10  10  50
MIO   61  80  58  80 /  90  10  10  60
F10   63  82  62  85 /  90  10  10  30
HHW   69  84  66  85 /  40  10  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for OKZ054>067.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
519 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
519 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM..

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms have developed across western Oklahoma as of
late afternoon. These storms will spread east and expand in
coverage by early evening. Severe weather is expected into
northeast Oklahoma by early to mid evening and will steadily
spread east through the early morning hours Tuesday. Conditions
will support significant severe weather, especially during the
evening into early morning hours. Tornadoes are likely, especially
during the evening hours, including the risk for strong long
track tornadoes. Additionally, large hail and locally damaging
winds are expected to occur, with this risk expanding east
through the early morning hours.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY through SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A few severe storms may develop as early as Wednesday morning,
but a more widespread severe weather risk is expected Wednesday
afternoon as a cold front sweeps east. Locations south and east
of Interstate 44 have the highest severe weather potential on
Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances will end on Thursday with dry and
mild weather for late week into the weekend.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is expected this evening into the overnight
hours. Additionally, given the potential for damaging storms,
the need for mutual aid and additional staffing should be
considered.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1036 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Talala                  36.53N 95.70W
05/06/2024  M59 MPH          Rogers             OK   Mesonet

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1114 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     Hail             Mannford                36.13N 96.35W
05/06/2024  E0.88 Inch       Creek              OK   Amateur Radio

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1118 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

ARZ001-010-OKZ063-068-069-070500-
Benton AR-Washington AR-Adair OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-
1118 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BENTON...
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE...NORTHERN ADAIR AND
CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1118 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
northeast of Pumpkin Center, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tahlequah...                      Siloam Springs...
Gentry...                         Tontitown...
Decatur...                        Westville...
West Siloam Springs...            Colcord...
Kansas...                         Hulbert...
Watts...                          Oaks...
Springtown...                     Christie...
Cincinnati...                     Cherokee Landing State Park...
Scraper...                        Eldon...
Proctor...                        Sequoyah State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northwestern Arkansas...and northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3639 9452 3617 9427 3564 9504 3574 9513
      3581 9513 3581 9519 3586 9523 3587 9523
      3589 9526
TIME...MOT...LOC 0418Z 226DEG 51KT 3577 9505

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1132 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSW Collinsville      36.35N 95.84W
05/06/2024                   Tulsa              OK   Amateur Radio

            Water over the road at 136th St N and
            Garnett.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1132 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

OKZ057-060>062-064-067-070500-
Tulsa OK-Craig OK-Rogers OK-Mayes OK-Creek OK-Wagoner OK-
1132 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...ROGERS...
NORTHEASTERN CREEK...MAYES...NORTHWESTERN WAGONER AND TULSA COUNTIES
THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1131 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Ketchum to near Claremore to 3 miles south
of Sapulpa. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Sand Springs...                   Claremore...
Pryor...                          Owasso...
Bixby...                          Sapulpa...
Jenks...                          Glenpool...
Coweta...                         Pryor Creek...
Catoosa...                        Collinsville...
Verdigris...                      Chouteau...
Inola...                          Kiefer...
Salina...                         Mounds...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 203 and 279.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 9500 3629 9500 3615 9534 3586 9574
      3587 9608 3602 9635 3616 9613 3616 9600
      3625 9600 3635 9584
TIME...MOT...LOC 0431Z 273DEG 37KT 3651 9502 3631 9565 3596 9613

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH