Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Late afternoon into tonight)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

We are on the cusp of a significant severe event across eastern and
western Arkansas. With the cap already eroding across much of the
area, the potential for isolated severe storms already exists. Per
latest meso analysis, CAPE values are in 1500 to 2000 J/KG range across
much of southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas where the cap has eroded.
The cap will likely weaken considerably over the next couple of hours
across the last stronghold of NE Oklahoma. As mentioned before, any
isolated storm that develops later this afternoon will have the potential
to become severe with more than adequate instability and deep layer shear
in place. All modes of severe weather possible.

The more significant severe weather is expected mainly this evening and
into the overnight hours as all the ingredients come together. The airmass
is expected to become more unstable as we move into the evening as will
the deep layer shear as the low level jet increases. Scattered thunderstorms
are forecast to develop near the dryline across western Oklahoma this
afternoon and become severe rapidly in the primed environment. This activity
will likely spread into eastern Oklahoma this evening with the storms
forming in into a line over time and moving east across the area. Any of the storms
that can remain discrete this evening will have the potential to produce a significant
long track tornado and giant hail. However, the potential for tornadoes will continue
within the line of storms as well. In addition to the tornadoes, wind gusts of around
75 mph and hail to around 2 inches in diameter will be possible.

With recent rains saturating the ground, flash flooding will also be a concern with
1 to 3 inches of rain possible in a short period of time. Went ahead and issued a
Flood Watch for much of northeast Oklahoma for tonight to highlight where the heaviest
rains are forecast. The thunderstorms are expected to exit the region by Tuesday mid-morning,

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Tuesday is expected to be a relatively quiet day weather-wise across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas as weak high pressure prevails. The next chance of storms will come
on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. These storms will likely fire
up earlier in the day near the cold front approaching Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma
by early afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be possible as this system moves
through the area as well.

Dry weather is forecast later in the week and into the weekend with temperatures near
normal for this time of year. Shower and storm chances increase late in the weekend
with the approach of a mid-level shortwave.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Low stratus has more or less risen above 3000 feet, though a few
obs below that can be expected this evening. May also see a few
showers through the early part of the forecast across far eastern
OK and western AR. Severe thunderstorms ongoing across western OK
will move into northeast OK while organizing into a squall line,
generally in the 02-04z time frame. This squall line will have
potential for dangerous wind gusts and large hail, with specific
threat becoming more clear as they move closer to TAF sites.
Farther east and south the threat of storms will persist through
around 10z. MVFR ceilings will persist for a time after the storms
pass, with VFR conditions return late Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  83  61  83 /  80  10  10  30
FSM   69  86  65  87 /  80  10   0  60
MLC   67  85  66  86 /  70  10   0  30
BVO   55  81  56  81 /  80  10  10  20
FYV   64  83  61  83 /  80  10  10  70
BYV   64  82  59  82 /  80  10   0  70
MKO   64  81  61  84 /  90  10  10  50
MIO   61  80  58  80 /  90  10  10  60
F10   63  82  62  85 /  80  10  10  30
HHW   69  84  66  85 /  40  10  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for OKZ054>067.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
519 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
519 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM..

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms have developed across western Oklahoma as of
late afternoon. These storms will spread east and expand in
coverage by early evening. Severe weather is expected into
northeast Oklahoma by early to mid evening and will steadily
spread east through the early morning hours Tuesday. Conditions
will support significant severe weather, especially during the
evening into early morning hours. Tornadoes are likely, especially
during the evening hours, including the risk for strong long
track tornadoes. Additionally, large hail and locally damaging
winds are expected to occur, with this risk expanding east
through the early morning hours.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY through SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A few severe storms may develop as early as Wednesday morning,
but a more widespread severe weather risk is expected Wednesday
afternoon as a cold front sweeps east. Locations south and east
of Interstate 44 have the highest severe weather potential on
Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances will end on Thursday with dry and
mild weather for late week into the weekend.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is expected this evening into the overnight
hours. Additionally, given the potential for damaging storms,
the need for mutual aid and additional staffing should be
considered.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
759 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

OKZ054-059-070130-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
759 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE AND NORTH
CENTRAL PAWNEE COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

At 759 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles south of Grainola to 3 miles east of
Fairfax. Movement was north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fairfax...                        Shidler...
Ralston...                        Burbank...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Pearsonia...                      Webb City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9641 3649 9640 3646 9679 3678 9676
      3678 9675 3684 9676 3700 9674
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 198DEG 39KT 3687 9665 3656 9665

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
819 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

OKZ054-070145-
Osage OK-
819 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY
THROUGH 845 PM CDT...

At 819 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southeast of Shidler, moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Burbank...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Pearsonia...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9634 3664 9652 3670 9673 3700 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 197DEG 38KT 3675 9660

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
827 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

OKZ054-059-064-070200-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
827 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...
NORTHWESTERN CREEK AND SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM
CDT...

At 826 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Oilton, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hominy...                         Cleveland...
Oilton...                         Jennings...
Osage...                          Hallett...
Terlton...                        Maramec...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 9668 3628 9645 3654 9658 3642 9614
      3600 9661 3601 9662 3616 9662 3616 9672
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 205DEG 38KT 3610 9663

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH