Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1005 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 958 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The forecast generally remains on track. Thus far, severe storms
have been confined to the far northwest part of our forecast
area, but that is about to change. Storms continue to increase in
coverage and intensity to our west, and these storms will move
into eastern Oklahoma within the next hour or so, with an all
hazard severe risk. A large QLCS will eventually evolve and sweep
across the entire forecast area overnight with damaging winds, a
few tornadoes, sporadic hail, and widespread heavy rainfall. Both
flash and river flood flooding will become a major concern heading
into the wee hours of Sunday morning. Have made only minor
changes to pops tonight, with the rest of the forecast on track at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Thunderstorms producing heavy rain and at least a low chance for
severe weather will be ongoing across parts of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest and west central Arkansas, with an expected decrease
in coverage and intensity toward mid morning. Another round of
thunderstorms with severe weather potential is expected to develop
along the cold front/dryline Sunday afternoon and into the
evening, with a lesser but still existent potential for tornadoes
and very large hail. The Flood Watch may need to be extended in
time to account for this activity across eastern parts of the
watch area.

A short break in the active pattern is expected Monday and into
Tuesday, with a period of dry weather for much of those two days.
The dry weather will be short-lived with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, including some potential for severe
thunderstorms, mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Flying conditions are expected to worsen as we move through the
night and into Sunday morning as showers/storms become widespread
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  77  55  80 / 100  80  10  10
FSM   66  77  61  82 /  80 100  50  10
MLC   65  76  60  82 / 100  90  10  10
BVO   61  77  51  78 / 100  70  10   0
FYV   63  74  57  80 /  80  90  50  10
BYV   63  73  57  78 /  80 100  60  10
MKO   63  74  58  79 /  90  90  10  10
MIO   62  73  54  76 / 100  90  30  10
F10   63  76  58  79 / 100  80  10  10
HHW   66  73  61  80 /  80  90  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
544 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
544 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
this evening. The threat of severe weather is present across the
entire area, but the greatest threat will be across eastern
Oklahoma. All severe hazards will be possible, including
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. By late this evening,
additional storms to the west will merge with ongoing activity,
and will shift the severe threat towards a heavy rain and flash
flooding threat. The highest flood threat remains across eastern
Oklahoma, but all areas have at least some potential. Total
rainfall in the hardest hit areas may exceed several inches.

Continue to pay special attention to forecast updates considering
the ongoing dual threat of severe weather and flooding rains through
tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
         Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
            Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
           Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Heavy rain will continue into Sunday across northwest Arkansas
before it finally moves east. Additional strong to severe storms
are possible across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
Sunday afternoon. Winds will remain breezy with gusts of 30 to 40
miles an hour.

For the rest of the week we will see additional rounds of rain and
thunderstorms, including the threat of severe weather and heavy
rains for mid week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
738 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     Hail             16 WSW Apperson         36.68N 97.04W
04/27/2024  E1.00 Inch       Osage              OK   Amateur Radio

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1128 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1.5 W Terlton           36.19N 96.52W
04/27/2024                   Pawnee             OK   Other Federal

            tree damage; time estimated by radar.

&&

MDL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1130 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Drumright               35.99N 96.60W
04/27/2024  M75 MPH          Creek              OK   Trained Spotter

            hwy 33 & 99.

&&

MDL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1134 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1104 PM     Tornado          5 SSE Bearden           35.29N 96.35W
04/27/2024                   Okfuskee           OK   Official NWS Obs

            TDS observed entering Okfuskee county; time
            estimated by radar.

&&

MDL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1136 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 E Drumright           35.99N 96.54W
04/27/2024                   Creek              OK   Public

            strong winds blew roof off a building in
            drumright.

&&

MDL