Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
701 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Short-term severe weather and flash flood concerns dominate the
focus of the forecast today, with thunderstorm coverage expected
to increase through the rest of the afternoon and evening,
continuing well into Sunday. Thunderstorms are ongoing in western
Oklahoma, nearer to the dryline, with coverage also increasing in
central Oklahoma in the warm sector. CAMs continue to show the
warm sector activity expanding northeastward into eastern Oklahoma
and eventually western Arkansas mid to late afternoon into the
evening. Mesoanalysis and radar presentation would suggest that
northeast Oklahoma is at the greatest risk in the near term for
the bulk of this, with the rest of the forecast area following
toward evening. The expectation is that one or more lines of
storms will form to the west this evening and move eastward into
Sunday morning, as the upper level system moves into the Central
Plains. Forecast soundings are supportive of very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes this afternoon and evening, including
strong tornadoes, especially into northeast Oklahoma. While the
severe weather threat is not expected to completely diminish,
there should be a transition during the evening and into the
overnight toward a flash flood threat given unseasonably high
precipitable water values and potential for 2 to 5 inches -
locally 6 to 8 - of rain over a widespread area. The Flood Watch
has been expanded into all of eastern Oklahoma as well as
northwest and west central Arkansas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Thunderstorms producing heavy rain and at least a low chance for
severe weather will be ongoing across parts of eastern Oklahoma
and northwest and west central Arkansas, with an expected decrease
in coverage and intensity toward mid morning. Another round of
thunderstorms with severe weather potential is expected to develop
along the cold front/dryline Sunday afternoon and into the
evening, with a lesser but still existent potential for tornadoes
and very large hail. The Flood Watch may need to be extended in
time to account for this activity across eastern parts of the
watch area.

A short break in the active pattern is expected Monday and into
Tuesday, with a period of dry weather for much of those two days.
The dry weather will be short-lived with multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms, including some potential for severe
thunderstorms, mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Flying conditions are expected to worsen as we move through the
night and into Sunday morning as showers/storms become widespread
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  63  77  55 /  40 100  80  10
FSM   81  66  77  61 /  40  70 100  50
MLC   81  65  76  60 /  40 100  90  10
BVO   80  61  77  51 /  40  90  70  10
FYV   78  63  74  57 /  40  80  90  50
BYV   78  63  73  57 /  30  60 100  60
MKO   80  63  74  58 /  40  90  90  10
MIO   80  62  73  54 /  30 100  90  30
F10   79  63  76  58 /  40 100  80  10
HHW   80  66  73  61 /  40  80  90  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
544 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
544 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
this evening. The threat of severe weather is present across the
entire area, but the greatest threat will be across eastern
Oklahoma. All severe hazards will be possible, including
tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. By late this evening,
additional storms to the west will merge with ongoing activity,
and will shift the severe threat towards a heavy rain and flash
flooding threat. The highest flood threat remains across eastern
Oklahoma, but all areas have at least some potential. Total
rainfall in the hardest hit areas may exceed several inches.

Continue to pay special attention to forecast updates considering
the ongoing dual threat of severe weather and flooding rains through
tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
         Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
            Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
           Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Heavy rain will continue into Sunday across northwest Arkansas
before it finally moves east. Additional strong to severe storms
are possible across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
Sunday afternoon. Winds will remain breezy with gusts of 30 to 40
miles an hour.

For the rest of the week we will see additional rounds of rain and
thunderstorms, including the threat of severe weather and heavy
rains for mid week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.