Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe storms with large hail and damaging winds
  late this afternoon and through the evening. The main threat
  is west of I-35.

- Soaking rain Monday, and then cooler, cloudy, and continued
  chances for rain next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Thunderstorms are ongoing across northern Minnesota, with this
activity soon moving into central Minnesota as a slow-moving
cold front drops south across the state. At the moment, these
storms are not that strong, however a much more impressive
environment for severe weather exists across central and
southwest Minnesota where 3000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE has
developed along with steep mid-level lapse rates. Seasonally
strong wind shear of 30-40 kts is also present along an north
of the front, and the perpendicular orientation of this shear
to the front favors discrete supercell development once the
storms reach the more favorable environment. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the threat with any storms this evening,
with significant hail (2" or greater) possible, especially
across west-central Minnesota where the lapse rates &
instability are mots impressive. Relatively dry low-levels and
high cloud bases means the tornado threat is minimal, but the
steep lapse rates means a damaging wind threat will be present
with the strongest storms, especially is they begin to merge
into clusters later in the evening. The main timing for storms
will be 4-7 PM across central Minnesota & northwest Wisconsin,
7-10 PM for western MN, the Twin Cities metro & western
Wisconsin, and 9 PM
- midnight for southern Minnesota. The severe threat will be
highest during the early evening across central Minnesota and
generally wane through the night as instability decreases, but a
threat for severe storms still exists for the Twin Cities &
points south.

The front stalls out across southern Minnesota tomorrow morning,
and could act as a focal points for additional thunderstorms
development tomorrow afternoon. CAMs today have backed off on
the amount of thunderstorm development, but will continue to
mention a low (10-20%) chance for storms tomorrow. Isolated
strong to severe storms can't be ruled out. temperatures will be
cooler behind the front with highs around 80.

Stronger support aloft arrives Monday with the front likely
still stalled out somewhere along the IA/MN border, with
increasing frontogenesis north of the boundary expected to
generate a banded rain event across much of the area. The
severe threat looks low with cool temperatures north of the
front, but slow-moving storms & rich PW values mean a widespread
soaking rain is expected. Enhanced rainfall amounts in excess
of 2-3" are possible within the narrow band of precipitation
where the frontogenesis is strongest.

A system Wednesday brings another chance for widespread rain,
but otherwise cooler temperatures prevail next week with
periodic chances for lighter rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Storm development is occurring over north-central Minnesota
early this evening, with more growth expected to occur further
west as the boundary pushes southeast throughout the evening.
Initial mode will be scattered as storms continue to develop,
and then are expected to become more clustered as they reach
further south. Confidence is high for impacts at STC, MSP, and
RNH given the current storm development. There is less certainty
with how far west storms will develop for impacts at AXN and
RWF, but if any storms go up they will likely be strong.
Confidence is also lower for how long the storms lasts into the
night, which is highlighted by the prob30s for MKT and EAU.
Following the storms, mostly VFR conditions and NE winds at
10kts of less are expected through the period.

KMSP...Adjusted timing slightly later to 04-07z given storms are
primarily moving eastward early this evening, and are not
expected to shift southeast for another 30-60 minutes. There is
still a small chance (20%) that storms stick around for more
than 3 hours, but recent models favor more of a progressive
pattern so we have excluded the prob30 for TSRA on the tail end
of the main impacts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/RA likely, chc -TSRA/IFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR/-SHRA, chc -TSRA. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
220 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
041930-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
220 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms this evening with the strongest storms
capable of large hail and damaging wind. The threat for
significant hail (greater than 2 inches) is highest across central
Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall are expected Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
705 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

MNC153-040130-
Todd-
705 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
following counties...

Todd...

* Until 830 PM CDT.

* At 705 PM CDT, the public reported heavy rain in southern Staples
  due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream
  flooding. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience minor flooding include...
  Staples.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4635 9470 4635 9468 4636 9467 4632 9465
      4630 9471 4630 9484 4636 9488 4637 9474

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
714 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     Hail             Bertha                  46.27N 95.06W
08/03/2024  M1.50 Inch       Todd               MN   Trained Spotter

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
734 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     Hail             1 N Browerville         46.10N 94.87W
08/03/2024  M3.00 Inch       Todd               MN   Amateur Radio

&&

BED

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
736 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     Hail             4 NE Eagle Bend         46.20N 94.97W
08/03/2024  E1.75 Inch       Todd               MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Golf Ball (1.75 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
747 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     Hail             6 W Cushing             46.14N 94.70W
08/03/2024  M0.88 Inch       Todd               MN   Trained Spotter

&&

BED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
748 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

MNZ043-044-040130-
Mille Lacs MN-Morrison MN-
748 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MILLE LACS AND SOUTHEASTERN
MORRISON COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

At 748 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Lastrup, or 19 miles southwest of Mille Lacs Lake,
moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mille Lacs Lake, Pierz, Onamia, Isle, Wahkon, Lastrup, Vineland,
Morrill, Harding, Genola, Hillman, and Mille Lacs Kathio State Park.

This includes U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 195 and 229.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central and east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4598 9343 4598 9352 4581 9352 4580 9377
      4582 9377 4583 9399 4616 9430 4616 9381
      4624 9381 4625 9344
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 315DEG 37KT 4609 9396

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BPH