Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Twin Cities, MN

215 
WWUS53 KMPX 040023
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
723 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

MNC097-153-040100-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-240804T0100Z/
Todd MN-Morrison MN-
723 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR TODD AND SOUTHWESTERN MORRISON COUNTIES...

At 723 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Browerville, or
25 miles west of Little Falls, moving south at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Long Prairie, Browerville, Clarissa, Upsala, Swanville, Grey Eagle,
Flensburg, Lake Osakis, Little Sauk, Round Prairie, Sobieski, and
Burtrum.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4580 9443 4577 9471 4578 9513 4594 9515
      4612 9515 4622 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 344DEG 29KT 4610 9486 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BPH

530 
WWUS53 KMPX 040033
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
733 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

MNC097-153-040100-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-240804T0100Z/
Todd MN-Morrison MN-
733 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN TODD AND SOUTHWESTERN MORRISON COUNTIES...

At 733 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Long Prairie,
or 22 miles west of Little Falls, moving south at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Long Prairie, Browerville, Upsala, Swanville, Grey Eagle, Flensburg,
Little Sauk, Round Prairie, Sobieski, Burtrum, Elmdale, and Pleasant
Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4578 9505 4605 9512 4616 9468 4609 9463
      4580 9443 4577 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 344DEG 29KT 4602 9483 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BPH

394 
WWUS53 KMPX 040046
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
746 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

MNC097-153-040100-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-240804T0100Z/
Todd MN-Morrison MN-
746 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN TODD AND SOUTHWESTERN MORRISON COUNTIES...

At 746 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Grey Eagle, or
20 miles west of Little Falls, moving south at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Long Prairie, Upsala, Swanville, Grey Eagle, Flensburg, Little Sauk,
Round Prairie, Sobieski, Burtrum, Elmdale, Pleasant Beach, and Long
Prairie Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4578 9499 4596 9506 4606 9463 4609 9463
      4580 9443 4577 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 343DEG 31KT 4590 9478 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

BPH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe storms with large hail and damaging winds
  late this afternoon and through the evening. The main threat
  is west of I-35.

- Soaking rain Monday, and then cooler, cloudy, and continued
  chances for rain next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Thunderstorms are ongoing across northern Minnesota, with this
activity soon moving into central Minnesota as a slow-moving
cold front drops south across the state. At the moment, these
storms are not that strong, however a much more impressive
environment for severe weather exists across central and
southwest Minnesota where 3000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE has
developed along with steep mid-level lapse rates. Seasonally
strong wind shear of 30-40 kts is also present along an north
of the front, and the perpendicular orientation of this shear
to the front favors discrete supercell development once the
storms reach the more favorable environment. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the threat with any storms this evening,
with significant hail (2" or greater) possible, especially
across west-central Minnesota where the lapse rates &
instability are mots impressive. Relatively dry low-levels and
high cloud bases means the tornado threat is minimal, but the
steep lapse rates means a damaging wind threat will be present
with the strongest storms, especially is they begin to merge
into clusters later in the evening. The main timing for storms
will be 4-7 PM across central Minnesota & northwest Wisconsin,
7-10 PM for western MN, the Twin Cities metro & western
Wisconsin, and 9 PM
- midnight for southern Minnesota. The severe threat will be
highest during the early evening across central Minnesota and
generally wane through the night as instability decreases, but a
threat for severe storms still exists for the Twin Cities &
points south.

The front stalls out across southern Minnesota tomorrow morning,
and could act as a focal points for additional thunderstorms
development tomorrow afternoon. CAMs today have backed off on
the amount of thunderstorm development, but will continue to
mention a low (10-20%) chance for storms tomorrow. Isolated
strong to severe storms can't be ruled out. temperatures will be
cooler behind the front with highs around 80.

Stronger support aloft arrives Monday with the front likely
still stalled out somewhere along the IA/MN border, with
increasing frontogenesis north of the boundary expected to
generate a banded rain event across much of the area. The
severe threat looks low with cool temperatures north of the
front, but slow-moving storms & rich PW values mean a widespread
soaking rain is expected. Enhanced rainfall amounts in excess
of 2-3" are possible within the narrow band of precipitation
where the frontogenesis is strongest.

A system Wednesday brings another chance for widespread rain,
but otherwise cooler temperatures prevail next week with
periodic chances for lighter rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Storm development is occurring over north-central Minnesota
early this evening, with more growth expected to occur further
west as the boundary pushes southeast throughout the evening.
Initial mode will be scattered as storms continue to develop,
and then are expected to become more clustered as they reach
further south. Confidence is high for impacts at STC, MSP, and
RNH given the current storm development. There is less certainty
with how far west storms will develop for impacts at AXN and
RWF, but if any storms go up they will likely be strong.
Confidence is also lower for how long the storms lasts into the
night, which is highlighted by the prob30s for MKT and EAU.
Following the storms, mostly VFR conditions and NE winds at
10kts of less are expected through the period.

KMSP...Adjusted timing slightly later to 04-07z given storms are
primarily moving eastward early this evening, and are not
expected to shift southeast for another 30-60 minutes. There is
still a small chance (20%) that storms stick around for more
than 3 hours, but recent models favor more of a progressive
pattern so we have excluded the prob30 for TSRA on the tail end
of the main impacts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/RA likely, chc -TSRA/IFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR/-SHRA, chc -TSRA. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
220 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
041930-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
220 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms this evening with the strongest storms
capable of large hail and damaging wind. The threat for
significant hail (greater than 2 inches) is highest across central
Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall are expected Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
655 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     Hail             4 SE Motley             46.30N 94.58W
08/03/2024  M1.75 Inch       Morrison           MN   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reported golf ball sized
            hail and estimated severe winds
            approximately 15 miles north of Cushing.

&&

TDH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
705 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

MNC153-040130-
Todd-
705 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
following counties...

Todd...

* Until 830 PM CDT.

* At 705 PM CDT, the public reported heavy rain in southern Staples
  due to thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream
  flooding. Up to two inches of rain have already fallen.

* Some locations that will experience minor flooding include...
  Staples.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4635 9470 4635 9468 4636 9467 4632 9465
      4630 9471 4630 9484 4636 9488 4637 9474

TDH