Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Twin Cities, MN

322 
WWUS53 KMPX 040336
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1036 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

MNC019-053-040346-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-240804T0345Z/
Hennepin MN-Carver MN-
1036 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL HENNEPIN AND
EAST CENTRAL CARVER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4474 9355 4481 9346 4481 9343 4480 9339
      4478 9338 4479 9335 4472 9321 4461 9346
      4462 9346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0336Z 319DEG 25KT 4470 9340 

$$

MNC037-139-040345-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-240804T0345Z/
Dakota MN-Scott MN-
1036 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES...

At 1036 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Prior Lake, or
19 miles south of Minneapolis, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Eden Prairie, Burnsville, Lakeville, Apple Valley, Shakopee, Savage,
Prior Lake, Credit River, and Minnesota Valley State Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4474 9355 4481 9346 4481 9343 4480 9339
      4478 9338 4479 9335 4472 9321 4461 9346
      4462 9346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0336Z 319DEG 25KT 4470 9340 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

TDH

774 
WWUS53 KMPX 040343
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1043 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

MNC037-139-040353-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-240804T0345Z/
Dakota MN-Scott MN-
1043 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1045 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4474 9355 4481 9346 4481 9343 4480 9339
      4478 9338 4479 9335 4472 9321 4461 9346
      4462 9346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0343Z 309DEG 33KT 4467 9334 

$$

TDH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
623 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe storms with large hail and damaging winds
  late this afternoon and through the evening. The main threat
  is west of I-35.

- Soaking rain Monday, and then cooler, cloudy, and continued
  chances for rain next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Thunderstorms are ongoing across northern Minnesota, with this
activity soon moving into central Minnesota as a slow-moving
cold front drops south across the state. At the moment, these
storms are not that strong, however a much more impressive
environment for severe weather exists across central and
southwest Minnesota where 3000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE has
developed along with steep mid-level lapse rates. Seasonally
strong wind shear of 30-40 kts is also present along an north
of the front, and the perpendicular orientation of this shear
to the front favors discrete supercell development once the
storms reach the more favorable environment. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the threat with any storms this evening,
with significant hail (2" or greater) possible, especially
across west-central Minnesota where the lapse rates &
instability are mots impressive. Relatively dry low-levels and
high cloud bases means the tornado threat is minimal, but the
steep lapse rates means a damaging wind threat will be present
with the strongest storms, especially is they begin to merge
into clusters later in the evening. The main timing for storms
will be 4-7 PM across central Minnesota & northwest Wisconsin,
7-10 PM for western MN, the Twin Cities metro & western
Wisconsin, and 9 PM
- midnight for southern Minnesota. The severe threat will be
highest during the early evening across central Minnesota and
generally wane through the night as instability decreases, but a
threat for severe storms still exists for the Twin Cities &
points south.

The front stalls out across southern Minnesota tomorrow morning,
and could act as a focal points for additional thunderstorms
development tomorrow afternoon. CAMs today have backed off on
the amount of thunderstorm development, but will continue to
mention a low (10-20%) chance for storms tomorrow. Isolated
strong to severe storms can't be ruled out. temperatures will be
cooler behind the front with highs around 80.

Stronger support aloft arrives Monday with the front likely
still stalled out somewhere along the IA/MN border, with
increasing frontogenesis north of the boundary expected to
generate a banded rain event across much of the area. The
severe threat looks low with cool temperatures north of the
front, but slow-moving storms & rich PW values mean a widespread
soaking rain is expected. Enhanced rainfall amounts in excess
of 2-3" are possible within the narrow band of precipitation
where the frontogenesis is strongest.

A system Wednesday brings another chance for widespread rain,
but otherwise cooler temperatures prevail next week with
periodic chances for lighter rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Storm development is occurring over north-central Minnesota
early this evening, with more growth expected to occur further
west as the boundary pushes southeast throughout the evening.
Initial mode will be scattered as storms continue to develop,
and then are expected to become more clustered as they reach
further south. Confidence is high for impacts at STC, MSP, and
RNH given the current storm development. There is less certainty
with how far west storms will develop for impacts at AXN and
RWF, but if any storms go up they will likely be strong.
Confidence is also lower for how long the storms lasts into the
night, which is highlighted by the prob30s for MKT and EAU.
Following the storms, mostly VFR conditions and NE winds at
10kts of less are expected through the period.

KMSP...Adjusted timing slightly later to 04-07z given storms are
primarily moving eastward early this evening, and are not
expected to shift southeast for another 30-60 minutes. There is
still a small chance (20%) that storms stick around for more
than 3 hours, but recent models favor more of a progressive
pattern so we have excluded the prob30 for TSRA on the tail end
of the main impacts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR/RA likely, chc -TSRA/IFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR/-SHRA, chc -TSRA. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
220 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
041930-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
220 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms this evening with the strongest storms
capable of large hail and damaging wind. The threat for
significant hail (greater than 2 inches) is highest across central
Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall are expected Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
935 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     Hail             Atwater                 45.14N 94.78W
08/03/2024  M1.25 Inch       Kandiyohi          MN   Public

&&

BED

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
944 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 PM     Hail             4 S Regal               45.35N 94.83W
08/03/2024  M1.00 Inch       Kandiyohi          MN   Law Enforcement

            delayed report quarter hail in Hawick.

&&

BPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
945 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     Hail             4 SSW Paynesville       45.32N 94.74W
08/03/2024  M1.75 Inch       Meeker             MN   Law Enforcement

            Delayed report. Golf ball sized hail in NW
            Meeker Co. via Dispatch.

&&

BPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
953 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     Hail             Atwater                 45.14N 94.78W
08/03/2024  M1.75 Inch       Kandiyohi          MN   Public

            Picture via X.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1007 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Atwater                 45.14N 94.78W
08/03/2024                   Kandiyohi          MN   Public

            Relay via Emergency manager. Multiple large
            trees down throughout Atwater and just south
            of Atwater. Time estimated from radar.

&&

BED

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1009 PM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     Hail             4 E Cosmos              44.94N 94.62W
08/03/2024  M1.00 Inch       Meeker             MN   Storm Chaser

            Spotter network report of quarter sized hail
            with time estimated based on radar.

&&

NDC