Tornado Warning 44, NWS Miami, FL

951 
WWUS52 KMFL 091241
SVSMFL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
841 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

FLC011-021-086-091250-
/O.EXP.KMFL.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-241009T1245Z/
Collier FL-Miami-Dade FL-Broward FL-
841 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL COLLIER...NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE
AND CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 845 AM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe 
limits, and is exiting the warned area. Therefore, the warning will 
be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for southeastern
and southwestern Florida.

LAT...LON 2595 8083 2596 8095 2620 8113 2620 8083
TIME...MOT...LOC 1240Z 156DEG 22KT 2614 8098 

$$

ATV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
450 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 449 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Wednesday and Thursday - Hurricane Milton Hazards:

Storm Surge: Dangerous storm surge remains a high risk for portions
of the Southwest Florida coast. Storm surge warnings are in effect
for coastal Collier and Mainland Monroe County. The surge will range
from 5 to 8 feet over coastal Collier County and 3 to 5 feet over
Mainland Monroe County. The peak of the storm surge will most likely
be Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

Winds: Winds will increase across South Florida today and these
winds will peak tonight into Thursday as Hurricane Milton makes its
closest pass by the region. The highest probabilities of tropical
storm force winds will be along the Gulf Coast of Southwest Florida
from today through Thursday. This part of the region in Southwest
Florida will also have a chance for Hurricane force winds, albeit
pretty low chances (around 10%). Tropical storm force winds will
also be possible across the rest of South Florida (east
coast metro and interior) especially in gusts.

Flooding: Milton's outer rainbands will begin to reach Southwest
Florida early Wednesday morning and will begin to spiral across the
area through early Thursday. Heavy downpours will be likely within
rainbands with additional rainfall totals of 1-3" with localized
totals up to 4" possible through Thursday for Southwest Florida up
through Hendry and Glades counties. Southeast Florida is expected to
see 0.5-1.5" and a less risk for flooding.

Tornadoes: As Milton progresses eastward towards South Florida, the
first outer bands will reach the Southwest Florida coast beginning
early today. A few isolated tornadoes will be possible within these
rain bands throughout the day as they spiral across the area from
west to east through early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 449 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

After Hurricane Milton clears the vicinity of South Florida on
Friday, a cold front is expected to pass through most of the Florida
Peninsula although it likely will not make it all the way into the
South Florida region. However, the abundant moisture will still be
decreasing as the boundary advects southwards and the weather
pattern becomes much more stable. Enough moisture will hang around
through the long term period for isolated to scattered showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms, but chances will be much lower (around
25-35% PoPs daily). Another front will push southwards towards the
end of the period associated with a large trough building in the
Great Lakes region, which will give us the first sign of the true
dry season arriving.

Temperatures each day through the period are expected in the mid to
upper 80s with heat indices in the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Generally VFR expected overnight, although there will be isolated
showers and storms near KAPF. Winds will remain on the lighter
side until later on this morning when winds begin to pick up with
the arrival of Milton's circulation. Rounds of SHRA/TSRA from
outer bands associated with Milton will push through the area
during the period, particularly for KAPF. For now, have put in
VCTS for APF and VCSH for the east coast, but this could be
upgraded to TSRA in later updates as timing confidence increases.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 449 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Tropical storm conditions will become possible across our Gulf
waters today and our Atlantic waters tonight into Thursday. While
seas will subside through Thursday night along the Gulf, seas will
build quite significantly across the east coast as swell on the back
side of Milton opposes the Gulf Stream. Expect these seas to peak on
Friday and mostly subside by the end of the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 449 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

There will be a high risk for rip currents across all beaches today
through Thursday. While the risk will subside for the Gulf on
Thursday night, it will persist through the weekend along the east
coast due to incoming swell on the back side of Milton.

Additionally, there is a potential for dangerous and damaging surf
conditions late this week into the weekend. This is most likely
across the Palm Beaches, but could spread to Broward county beaches
as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  79  87  74 /  90  70  40  20
West Kendall     89  79  88  74 /  80  70  40  20
Opa-Locka        89  80  89  75 /  90  70  40  20
Homestead        89  80  87  74 /  80  70  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  79  87  74 /  90  80  40  30
N Ft Lauderdale  89  79  88  74 /  90  80  40  30
Pembroke Pines   91  81  89  75 /  90  80  40  30
West Palm Beach  89  78  88  74 /  90  80  40  40
Boca Raton       89  78  89  74 /  90  80  40  30
Naples           87  79  85  73 / 100  70  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hurricane Watch for FLZ063-066-069-070.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ069-075.

     High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through Friday
     morning for FLZ069-168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for FLZ069.

AM...Hurricane Watch for AMZ610.

     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ656-676.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Culver

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
401 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
100815-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
401 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Flooding: Refer to flood watch for information on potential heavy
rainfall and flooding this week.

Rip Currents: There is a high risk for rip currents for all area
beaches today.

Winds: Tropical Storm force winds are likely for portions of the
region today, mainly along the Gulf coast.

High Surf: As Hurricane Milton approaches, waves will approach 6 to
10 feet in the surf zone today along the Collier county coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous conditions associated with Hurricane Milton will continue
to impact portions of South Florida through Thursday. Refer to the
latest watches and warnings and hurricane local statements for more
information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.