Tornado Warning 38, NWS Miami, FL

422 
WWUS52 KMFL 090736
SVSMFL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
336 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

FLC021-090745-
/O.EXP.KMFL.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-241009T0745Z/
Collier FL-
336 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLLIER COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
345 AM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 2597 8173 2595 8155 2582 8157 2582 8174
      2583 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 0735Z 186DEG 18KT 2590 8165 

$$

WR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
140 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Now through Midnight:

850mb Mesoanalysis indicates the continued progression of a
convergent band northwards across South Florida indicative of
southwesterly flow to the south of the boundary and northeasterly
flow on the north side of the boundary. A noticeable CAPE gradient
remains across the region as well with the highest instability
located to the south of the region over Florida Bay and along the
immediate east coast of South Florida. Cannot rule out a few pockets
of heavy rainfall this afternoon as PWATs remain near the daily
max with the greatest potential across areas with sufficient
CAPE. A lull in the rainfall is expected in the evening and early
overnight hours as the convergent boundary gradually lifts to the
north of the region. Rain and ample cloud cover will keep highs in
the low to middle 80s.

Wednesday - Hurricane Milton Hazards:

Storm Surge: There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge
for portions of the Southwest Florida coast. Storm surge warnings
are in effect for coastal Collier and Mainland Monroe County. The
surge will range from 4 to 7 feet over coastal Collier County and 3
to 5 feet over Mainland Monroe County. The peak of the storm surge
will most likely be Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

Winds: Winds will increase across South Florida on Wednesday and
these winds will peak on Wednesday night into Thursday as Hurricane
Milton makes its closest pass the region. The highest probabilities
of tropical storm force winds will be along the Gulf Coast of
Southwest Florida. Tropical storm force winds will also be possible
across the rest of South Florida especially in gusts.

Flooding: Milton's outer rainbands will begin to reach Southwest
Florida early Wednesday morning and will begin to spiral across
the area through early Thursday. Heavy downpours will be likely
within rainbands with additional rainfall totals of 1-3" with
localized totals up to 4" possible through Thursday.

Tornadoes: As Milton progresses eastward towards South Florida,
the first outer bands will reach the Southwest Florida coast
beginning early on Wednesday. A few isolated tornadoes will be
possible within these rainbands as they spiral across the area
from west to east through early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 147 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Impacts listed above for Milton will continue to impact the region
and gradually abate during the day on Thursday.

Lingering, albeit much lower rain chances are expected through
the remainder of the period, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.
This forecaster certainly holds high hopes for a stretch of dry
days after this prolonged period of wet weather in South Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Generally VFR expected overnight, although there will be isolated
showers and storms near KAPF. Winds will remain on the lighter
side until later on this morning when winds begin to pick up with
the arrival of Milton's circulation. Rounds of SHRA/TSRA from
outer bands associated with Milton will push through the area
during the period, particularly for KAPF. For now, have put in
VCTS for APF and VCSH for the east coast, but this could be
upgraded to TSRA in later updates as timing confidence increases.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Tropical storm conditions will become possible across our Gulf
waters on Wednesday and our Atlantic waters Wednesday night into
Thursday. While seas will subside through Thursday night along the
Gulf, seas will build quite significantly across the east coast as
swell on the back side of Milton opposes the Gulf Stream. Expect
these seas to peak on Friday and mostly subside by the end of the
weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

With the slowing of Milton, the high risk for rip currents along
the east and west coasts will likely hold off until Wednesday.
While the risk will subside for the Gulf on Thursday night, it
will persist through the weekend along the east coast due to the
aforementioned swell.

Additionally, there is a potential for dangerous and damaging surf
conditions late this week into the weekend. This is most likely
across the Palm Beaches, but could spread to Broward county
beaches as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  79  87  74 /  90  70  40  20
West Kendall     89  79  88  74 /  80  70  40  20
Opa-Locka        89  80  89  75 /  90  70  40  20
Homestead        89  80  87  74 /  80  70  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  79  87  74 /  90  80  40  30
N Ft Lauderdale  89  79  88  74 /  90  80  40  30
Pembroke Pines   91  81  89  75 /  90  80  40  30
West Palm Beach  89  78  88  74 /  90  80  40  40
Boca Raton       89  78  89  74 /  90  80  40  30
Naples           87  79  85  73 / 100  70  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hurricane Watch for FLZ063-066-069-070.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ069-075.

AM...Hurricane Watch for AMZ610.

     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ656-676.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...Culver

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
541 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
092145-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
541 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

...Hazardous conditions associated with Hurricane Milton...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Flooding: Refer to flood watch for information on potential heavy
rainfall and flooding this week.

Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk for rip currents along area
beaches today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hazardous conditions associated with Hurricane Milton will continue
to impact portions of South Florida through Thursday. Refer to the
latest watches and warnings and hurricane local statements for more
information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.