Tornado Warning 69, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
839 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

...Tornado Watch Now In Effect Until 9pm...
...Dangerous Storm Surge Possible SW Florida...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 836 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Wednesday and Thursday - Hurricane Milton Hazards:

Storm Surge: Dangerous storm surge remains a high risk for portions
of the Southwest Florida coast. Storm surge warnings are in effect
for coastal Collier and Mainland Monroe County. The surge will range
from 5 to 8 feet over coastal Collier County and 3 to 5 feet over
Mainland Monroe County. The peak of the storm surge will most likely
be Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

Winds: Winds will increase across South Florida today and these
winds will peak tonight into Thursday as Hurricane Milton makes its
closest pass by the region. The highest probabilities of tropical
storm force winds will be along the Gulf Coast of Southwest Florida
from today through Thursday. This part of the region in Southwest
Florida will also have a chance for Hurricane force winds, albeit
pretty low chances (around 10%). Tropical storm force winds will
also be possible across the rest of South Florida (east
coast metro and interior) especially in gusts.

Flooding: Milton's outer rainbands will begin to reach Southwest
Florida early Wednesday morning and will begin to spiral across the
area through early Thursday. Heavy downpours will be likely within
rainbands with additional rainfall totals of 1-3" with localized
totals up to 4" possible through Thursday for Southwest Florida up
through Hendry and Glades counties. Southeast Florida is expected to
see 0.5-1.5" and a less risk for flooding.

Tornadoes: As Milton progresses eastward towards South Florida, the
first outer bands will reach the Southwest Florida coast beginning
early today. A few isolated tornadoes will be possible within these
rain bands throughout the day as they spiral across the area from
west to east through early Thursday morning. A Tornado Watch has
been issued for all of South Florida until 9pm.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 836 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

After Hurricane Milton clears the vicinity of South Florida on
Friday, a cold front is expected to pass through most of the Florida
Peninsula although it likely will not make it all the way into the
South Florida region. However, the abundant moisture will still be
decreasing as the boundary advects southwards and the weather
pattern becomes much more stable. Enough moisture will hang around
through the long term period for isolated to scattered showers and
perhaps a few thunderstorms, but chances will be much lower (around
25-35% PoPs daily). Another front will push southwards towards the
end of the period associated with a large trough building in the
Great Lakes region, which will give us the first sign of the true
dry season arriving.

Temperatures each day through the period are expected in the mid to
upper 80s with heat indices in the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 836 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Winds will remain on the lighter side until later on this morning
when winds begin to pick up with the arrival of Milton's
circulation. Rounds of SHRA/TSRA from outer bands associated with
Milton will push through the area during the period, particularly
for KAPF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 836 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

Tropical storm conditions will become possible across our Gulf
waters today and our Atlantic waters tonight into Thursday. While
seas will subside through Thursday night along the Gulf, seas will
build quite significantly across the east coast as swell on the back
side of Milton opposes the Gulf Stream. Expect these seas to peak on
Friday and mostly subside by the end of the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 836 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

There will be a high risk for rip currents across all beaches today
through Thursday. While the risk will subside for the Gulf on
Thursday night, it will persist through the weekend along the east
coast due to incoming swell on the back side of Milton.

Additionally, there is a potential for dangerous and damaging surf
conditions late this week into the weekend. This is most likely
across the Palm Beaches, but could spread to Broward county beaches
as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  79  87  75 /  90  70  40  20
West Kendall     89  79  88  74 /  80  70  40  10
Opa-Locka        89  80  89  75 /  90  70  40  20
Homestead        89  80  87  75 /  80  70  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  89  79  87  74 /  90  80  40  20
N Ft Lauderdale  89  79  88  75 /  90  80  40  20
Pembroke Pines   91  81  89  76 /  90  80  40  20
West Palm Beach  89  78  88  74 /  90  80  40  40
Boca Raton       89  78  89  74 /  90  80  40  30
Naples           87  79  85  74 / 100  70  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hurricane Watch for FLZ063-066-069-070.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for FLZ063-066-069-070.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

     Storm Surge Warning for FLZ069-075.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ069.

AM...Hurricane Watch for AMZ610.

     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ656-676.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Culver

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
401 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
100815-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
401 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Flooding: Refer to flood watch for information on potential heavy
rainfall and flooding this week.

Rip Currents: There is a high risk for rip currents for all area
beaches today.

Winds: Tropical Storm force winds are likely for portions of the
region today, mainly along the Gulf coast.

High Surf: As Hurricane Milton approaches, waves will approach 6 to
10 feet in the surf zone today along the Collier county coast.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous conditions associated with Hurricane Milton will continue
to impact portions of South Florida through Thursday. Refer to the
latest watches and warnings and hurricane local statements for more
information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Miami FL
1159 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1153 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 NE Naples             26.16N 81.78W
10/09/2024  M51 MPH          Collier            FL   ASOS

            Naples Municipal Airport reported a 51 mph
            wind gust at 1153 AM with a tornado-warned
            thunderstorm within an outer band from
            Hurricane Milton.

&&

RAG