Tornado Warning 14, NWS Miami, FL

150 
WWUS52 KMFL 041131
SVSMFL

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
731 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

FLC021-041141-
/O.CAN.KMFL.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-240804T1145Z/
Collier FL-
731 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN COLLIER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However, gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Miami. You can also share your report with NWS Miami on
Facebook and Twitter.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
northwestern Collier County until 745 AM EDT.

LAT...LON 2632 8166 2642 8166 2642 8157 2621 8153
      2616 8173 2632 8179
TIME...MOT...LOC 1128Z 165DEG 36KT 2638 8168 

$$

RAG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
254 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

South FL will continue to feel the impacts today of Tropical Storm
Debby as it moves north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Periods of
gusty showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the day,
and with PWAT values in the 2.3-2.5 inch range, high rainfall rates
can be expected. Even though QPF totals continue to trend downward
overall, with 1-3 inches of additional rain expected through
tonight, some localized higher amounts will still be possible. Opted
to leave the Flood Watch in effect through this evening, as some
urban and poor drainage flooding is still possible. In addition to
the flooding threat, there remains a tornadic threat through at
least the first part of today, with SRH values in the 100-150 range.
The greatest threat will be over SW FL and around the lake region,
however an isolated tornado across the east coast metro can't be
ruled out as well. Winds will remain breezy across all of South FL
today, with wind gusts of 25-35 mph expected outside of convection,
and 40-45 mph over coastal Collier and Mainland Monroe where
Tropical Storm Warnings remain in place. High temperatures today
will be in the middle 80s across SW FL to lower 90s across the east
coast metro.

Conditions will gradually improve overnight and into Monday as Debby
is projected to approach the big bend area of FL and eventually move
inland across northern FL. While there should be plenty of dry
periods especially overnight, will keep chance PoPs in for some
widely scattered showers and storms. PoPs increase during the
afternoon and early evening as daytime heating should quickly
destabilize a still moist atmosphere, bringing a greater coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. Urban and poor drainage flooding may
still be a concern on Monday, but the threat should be fairly
localized so an extension of the current Flood Watch is not expected
at this time. High temps on Monday will be in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

Latest long range model solutions show fair consensus in keeping the
remnants of Debbie lingering around the SE CONUS with little to no
steering currents to move it. It also hampers the influence of the
Atlantic high which won't be able to fully expand into SoFlo. This
synoptic scenario will result in low-level flow keeping a generally
southerly component through the rest of the long term. This pattern
usually favors abundant moisture advection and above-average,
widespread rainfall.

Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday when the best
pool of moisture will remain over the area, then slightly lower
coverage for the rest of the week with scattered to numerous showers
and storms each day. Long range models insist in developing an upper
level ridge over the area, which will help in suppressing deep
convection and overall coverage. Nevertheless, locally heavy
rainfall will still be a hazard associated with this activity, which
may result in flooding. This is particularly true in areas already
impacted by rain over the weekend from peripheral rainbands
associated to Debbie. POPs will be kept generally in the 60-80
percent Tuesday, then dropping to 50-70% through early next week.
Highest coverage will likely occur over the western half of SoFlo.

The aforementioned ridge and a modest drop in available deep
moisture will combine to lower the chances of strong/deep
convection. But a few strong or even severe cells can't be ruled out,
especially during the afternoon periods of daytime heating and sea
breeze activity. Outflow boundaries from earlier thunderstorms may
also become focal points for brief strong cells to form.

With the prevailing southerly component in low-level winds, warm
conditions will prevail during the long term. Expect high
temperatures in the low or even mid 90s at times despite the
persisting cloud cover and elevated rainfall probabilities.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

Periods of poor aviation conditions will continue today as the
region will continue to see impacts from Tropical Storm Debby.
E/SE winds of 15-25 kts with gusts over 30 kts are possible today,
with some localized stronger winds in convective bands. Prevailing
MVFR ceilings are expected, with periods of IFR possible during
times of heavy rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

Dangerous marine conditions expected in the Gulf waters today as
Tropical Storm Debby moves northward through the eastern Gulf.
Tropical Storm Warnings remain in place with winds of 30-40 kts and
seas of 7-14 ft. Conditions in the Atlantic waters will remain
hazardous today with SE winds 20-30 kts and seas 6-8 ft. Conditions
gradually improve late tonight however hazardous conditions are
expected to linger through much of Monday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

A high risk of rip currents remains in place for all South FL
beaches today due to strong winds and swell associated with Debby.
High surf conditions are likely along the Gulf beaches through this
evening, with breaking waves of 6-8 ft in the surf zone possible.
Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Gulf coast during
today's high tide cycles.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  81  93  81 /  70  50  50  20
West Kendall     91  79  93  79 /  70  50  40  20
Opa-Locka        91  81  94  81 /  70  50  50  20
Homestead        90  81  91  80 /  70  50  40  20
Fort Lauderdale  90  81  91  81 /  70  50  50  20
N Ft Lauderdale  91  82  93  82 /  60  50  50  20
Pembroke Pines   93  81  96  80 /  70  50  50  20
West Palm Beach  91  81  93  80 /  60  50  60  20
Boca Raton       92  81  93  80 /  70  50  50  20
Naples           87  80  89  81 /  80  80  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ069-075-
     174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ069.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ069-075.

     High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Monday for
     FLZ069.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...CMF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
514 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
050915-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
514 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Tropical Headlines are in effect for portions of South Florida. See
latest Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Tropical Headlines are in effect for portions of South Florida. See
latest Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
242 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

FLZ073-074-173-040715-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
242 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade
County through 315 AM EDT...

At 242 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Palmetto Bay, or near Black Point, moving
northwest at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Miami, Hialeah, Coral Gables, South Miami, Black Point, Kendall, The
Redland, Doral, Miami Lakes, Hialeah Gardens, Pinecrest, Miami
Springs, Sweetwater, West Miami, Medley, Westchester, Glenvar
Heights, Palmetto Bay, University Of Miami, and Zoo Miami.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2569 8025 2569 8026 2564 8027 2563 8028
      2564 8028 2563 8030 2561 8031 2557 8030
      2555 8032 2554 8031 2554 8032 2552 8033
      2550 8038 2578 8066 2591 8029 2572 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 0642Z 157DEG 28KT 2560 8030

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CWC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
244 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

FLZ066-070-040715-
Hendry FL-Inland Collier County FL-
244 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Collier
and southeastern Hendry Counties through 315 AM EDT...

At 244 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud 9 miles
southwest of Big Cypress Seminole Reservation, or 24 miles east of
Ave Maria, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hendry Correctional, Big Cypress Seminole Reservation, and Big
Cypress National Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 2611 8093 2608 8112 2642 8136 2651 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 0644Z 162DEG 26KT 2620 8106

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CWC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
707 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

FLZ069-070-041200-
Coastal Collier County FL-Inland Collier County FL-
707 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Collier
County through 800 AM EDT...

At 707 AM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms capable of producing a funnel cloud along a line
extending from near Bonita Springs to near West Toll Gate On
Alligator Alley to near Marco Island Airport. Movement was north at
40 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Naples, Marco Island, Golden Gate Estates, Cape Romano, Belle Meade,
Orangetree, Golden Gate, East Naples, Lely Resort, Vineyards, Royal
Palm Hammock, Naples Park, Marco Island Airport, Naples Manor, West
Toll Gate On Alligator Alley, North Naples, Pelican Bay, Corkscrew
Swamp Sanctuary, Lely, and Rookery Bay Aquatic Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2632 8166 2642 8166 2642 8158 2604 8148
      2590 8158 2590 8164 2594 8165 2584 8168
      2589 8171 2593 8168 2593 8173 2597 8166
      2598 8167 2597 8167 2598 8168 2600 8176
      2633 8185
TIME...MOT...LOC 1107Z 165DEG 36KT 2640 8173 2613 8162 2597 8168

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RAG