Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
233 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

South FL will continue to experience tropical storm impact today
as Tropical Storm Debby moves northward over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico (GoM). Periods of gusty showers and thunderstorms will
continue throughout the afternoon, producing high rainfall rates
and concerns for flooding. The flooding threat will remain
especially prevalent across southwest Florida where several of
Debby's bands have already dumped around 4 inches of rain and high
tides have resulted in moderate coastal flooding. A Flash Flood
Warning and Coastal Flood Advisory are currently in effect for
coastal Collier given this threat and the added potential that an
additional 2-4 inches could fall over this area throughout the
afternoon.

In addition to the flooding threat, there remains a tornadic threat
through at least mid-afternoon, with SRH values in the 100-150 range
and effective bulk shear of 20-30 kts. To this effect, a Tornado
Watch was issued for Glades, Hendry and Collier counties until 8PM
tonight. This threat will decrease into the evening as the storm
moves northward and flow along the column becomes more
unidirectional.

Winds will remain breezy across all of South FL through the evening,
with wind gusts of 25-35 mph expected outside of convection, and 40-
45 mph over coastal Collier and Mainland Monroe where Tropical Storm
Warnings remain in place. High temperatures today will be in the
middle 80s across southwest FL to lower 90s across the East Coast
metro.

Conditions will gradually improve overnight and into Monday as Debby
approaches the Big Bend area of FL. While there should be plenty
of dry periods over our area tonight and tomorrow, there is still
a chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms to pop up
overnight. PoPs may increase again during the afternoon and early
evening tomorrow as daytime heating helps destabilize a still
moist atmosphere, bringing a greater coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. Urban and poor drainage flooding may still be a
concern on Monday, but the threat should be fairly localized so an
extension of the current Flood Watch is not expected at this
time. Winds may still be breezy throughout the day with sustained
winds around 15 kts and gusts up to 20 kts. High temps on Monday
will be in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

The latest long-range model solutions exhibit fair consensus in
keeping Debby lingering around the southeastern CONUS, with little
to no steering currents to facilitate its movement. The trough of
low pressure currently influencing Debbys northward and
northeastward trajectory is projected to be insufficient to fully
displace the system, resulting in its stagnation near the
southeastern U.S. coast due to weak steering currents persisting
over the region for several days. This low-pressure system will
act as a buffer against the Bermuda Highs influence over the CWA.
Consequently, South Florida will experience a sustained southerly
low-level flow throughout the week.

This synoptic setup will advect high moisture content and a warm,
unstable airmass from the Caribbean, leading to elevated high
temperatures and widespread rainfall. Expect numerous showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday, as the highest moisture pool will be
positioned over the area, potentially influenced by Debbys
moisture tail. The progression of Debby, whether it moves out to
sea or towards the northeastern U.S. coast, will significantly
impact our chances of rain. More progressive solutions (ECMWF/CMC)
suggest that mid-level ridging will build in by mid to late week,
weakening the low-level flow and altering the southerly
component. Conversely, the GFS model retains Debby over the
southeastern U.S. throughout the long-term period, exerting a
substantial influence on South Floridas weather pattern.

Given these model discrepancies, the extended long-term forecast
bears an unusual amount of uncertainty. Hydrological concerns will
be closely monitored, particularly in areas already experiencing
flooding from Tropical Storm Debby over the weekend. Locally heavy
rainfall remains a significant threat, with PWAT values exceeding
2 inches Tuesday and mid-week. PWATs less than 2 inches may be
possible late in the week and into the weekend if the progressive
solutions win out, which would reduce rain chances to slightly
higher than climatological normal.

Under the prevailing southerly low-level flow, warm conditions
will dominate the long term. In addition, the abundant moisture
will keep conditions muggy and humid. High temperatures are
anticipated to range in the low to mid-90s despite persistent
cloud cover and elevated rainfall probabilities.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

Poor aviation conditions will continue through this TAF cycle as
outer banding associated with Tropical Storm Debby move over the
region. Generally SSE winds 15-25 kts, with gusts over 30 kts
will remain possible this afternoon, with locally higher gusts
likely within the convective bands. Conditions start to improve
late tonight as Debby departs the region and winds shift from the
south.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

Dangerous marine conditions remain likely across the Gulf waters
this afternoon as Tropical Storm Debby surges northward through the
eastern Gulf. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in place through this
evening with winds of 30-40 kts and seas of 7-14 ft. Conditions in
the Atlantic waters will remain hazardous today with SE winds 20-30
kts and seas 6-8 ft. Conditions will gradually improve late tonight
into tomorrow; however, hazardous conditions are expected to linger
through much of the day tomorrow.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 106 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

A high risk of rip currents remains in place for all South FL
beaches today due to strong winds and swell associated with Debby.
Minor coastal flooding is possible along the Gulf coast during
today's high tide cycles.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  91  81  92 /  60  50  20  60
West Kendall     77  92  79  92 /  50  50  20  70
Opa-Locka        80  92  81  93 /  50  50  20  70
Homestead        80  90  80  92 /  50  50  20  60
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  81  92 /  60  50  20  60
N Ft Lauderdale  80  91  82  93 /  50  60  20  60
Pembroke Pines   80  94  80  95 /  50  50  20  60
West Palm Beach  79  91  80  93 /  50  50  20  70
Boca Raton       79  92  80  94 /  50  50  20  60
Naples           80  88  81  90 /  70  60  30  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ069-075-
     174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ069.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for FLZ069.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ069-075.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....Pine
AVIATION...ATV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
958 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
051400-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
958 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Tropical Headlines are in effect for portions of South Florida. See
latest Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Tropical Headlines are in effect for portions of South Florida. See
latest Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
407 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

FLZ066-071>074-042100-
Inland Broward County FL-Hendry FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Miami-Dade County FL-
407 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Collier,
northern Miami-Dade, southeastern Hendry and southern Broward
Counties through 500 PM EDT...

At 407 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Dade-Collier Training Airport, or 29 miles
northwest of The Redland, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pembroke Pines, Miramar, Davie, Plantation, Sunrise, Weston, Sawgrass
Mills Mall, Miccosukee Resort, Intersection I-75 And U.S. 27,
Intersection I-75 And Griffin Road, Miccosukee Service Plaza, Mile
Marker 30 On Alligator Alley, Intersection Alligator Alley And Miami
Canal, Fortymile Bend, Intersection Krome And U.S. 27, East Toll Gate
On Alligator Alley, Markham Park, and West Broward Rec. Area On
Alligator Alley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. This type of funnel cloud is harmless, but on rare occasions
they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50 mph. If a
funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your sighting to the
National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for southern and
southwestern Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 2560 8054 2574 8087 2626 8088 2618 8027
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 228DEG 32KT 2583 8087

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
441 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

FLZ067-071>074-042115-
Inland Broward County FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-Inland Miami-
Dade County FL-
441 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...A gusty shower will impact portions of northern Miami-Dade,
Broward and southwestern Palm Beach Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 440 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a gusty shower 7 miles northeast of Dade-Collier Training Airport, or
30 miles west of Miramar, moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Hialeah, Pembroke Pines, Miramar, Belle Glade, Pahokee, South Bay,
Lake Harbor, The Redland, Weston, Doral, Miami Lakes, Hialeah
Gardens, Sweetwater, Medley, Fountainbleau, Kendale Lakes, Belle
Glade Camp, Pennsuco, Holey Land Wildlife Refuge, and Intersection
Krome And U.S. 27.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for southern and
southwestern Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 2548 8068 2596 8087 2654 8089 2675 8089
      2670 8082 2669 8074 2670 8072 2676 8075
      2678 8073 2674 8071 2676 8069 2681 8069
      2578 8030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 194DEG 49KT 2593 8082

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
446 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

FLZ073-074-173-174-042130-
Metropolitan Miami Dade FL-Far South Miami-Dade County FL-
Inland Miami-Dade County FL-Coastal Miami Dade County FL-
446 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Miami-Dade County through 530 PM EDT...

At 446 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm capable of producing a funnel cloud 10 miles
northwest of Rock Harbor, or 12 miles west of Key Largo, moving north
at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Funnel clouds and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes
         or waterspouts. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and
         blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Homestead, Homestead General Airport, Homestead Miami Speedway, The
Redland, Florida City, Royal Palm Ranger, and Homestead Bayfront
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2517 8071 2552 8061 2544 8033 2524 8043
      2525 8046 2520 8050 2521 8054 2520 8054
      2521 8057 2524 8054 2524 8057 2518 8061
      2518 8062 2519 8061 2520 8061 2518 8066
      2518 8063 2515 8065
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 200DEG 33KT 2515 8061

FUNNEL CLOUD...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JS

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