Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
756 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 742 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Convective bands from Tropical Storm Debby continue to move across
southern Florida this evening. Frequent lightning, gusty winds of
45-55 mph, and torrential rainfall have been occurring with
embedded storms in the bands. Overnight, the risk of tornadoes
cannot be ruled out with an area of enhanced 150+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH
values overspreading the southern peninsula along with the
convective bands. Earlier, abundant sunshine over portions of the
area could open the door to some additional available instability
that has not yet been stabilized by convective activity. The
threat of continued rounds of excessive rainfall that could lead
to flooding overnight into Sunday will need to be monitored as
well. Remember to keep multiple ways of receiving warnings near as
you go to be tonight in case a Tornado or Flash Flood Warning
becomes necessary for your area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1217 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Tropical Depression Four will cross through NW Cuba and emerge
into the SE GOM this afternoon, which should result in gradual
strengthening of the system through the short term period (with
the system likely becoming Tropical Storm Debbie at some point in
the very near future). Rain bands on the northern fringe of this
system are just approaching southern portions of the area, and
these will continue to lift northwestward this afternoon into the
evening. The main threat with these bands will be gusty
convective winds (as evidence by the numerous 35-45mph observed
gusts so far), and locally heavy rainfall. Late this afternoon and
into the evening/overnight period we will begin to see 0-1km
helicity increase over primarily SW portions of the area which
will result in the threat of an isolated tornado (or waterspout
over the Gulf waters). For more details regarding potential
impacts to South Florida please refer to the latest Hurricane
Local Statement.

The system will slowly push to the north of the area during the
day on Sunday although the moisture tail along the southeastern
flank of the system will still result in scattered to numerous
tropical showers over portions of the area. At present it looks
like the best rain chances will be over the western half of the
area, with somewhat drier conditions over the east coast.
Unfortunately, the seemingly constant threat of heat advisory
conditions for MD/Broward counties will return, particularly if
the drier solution verifies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Early Monday, the threat of tropical impacts will decrease,
though coastal areas of Collier County may still experience
occasional wind gusts near tropical storm force. This is partially
dependent on the translational speed of the future tropical
system Debby. A potential slow-down could maintain a strong
onshore flow.

Monday to Wednesday: The forecast for early next week will be
heavily influenced by the tropical system to our north. There
remains significant model and ensemble disparity regarding the
progression of future Debby as it moves across Florida into the
Atlantic. Recent trends suggest Debby may become trapped between
two competing high-pressure systems, inhibiting its forward speed.
Consequently, deep-layer tropical moisture is expected to persist
over much of South Florida, with numerous showers and
thunderstorms likely. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to
flooding, especially in areas already impacted by rain over the
weekend from peripheral rainbands. Probability of Precipitation
(POPs) will be maintained in the 50-70% range, highest over the
western half of the County Warning Area (CWA).

Wednesday Night to Friday Night: Long-range solutions show a fair
consensus in establishing ridging aloft, which will help suppress
deep convection. Any isolated stronger storms will primarily
result from diurnal heating and outflow boundary interactions.

With a progressive southerly flow advecting a warm air mass into
the region and additional mid-level ridging building in the late
long-term period, high temperatures should remain in the low 90s
despite increased cloud cover and elevated rainfall probabilities.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Bands of SHRA/TSRA will rotate across the region with gusty SErly
winds at times. VFR cigs and conditions will prevail at area
terminals outside of convection with the potential of MVFR and
sub-MVFR cigs in and around SHRA/TSRA convection. Stronger gusts
could be realized as convective bands move directly over
terminals. Low uncertainty as far as timing for convective bands
thus short fused amendments and TEMPOs may be needed if radar
trends depict terminal impacts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1217 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

Hazardous conditions will continue over all waters today and into
Sunday as Tropical Depression Four moves into the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. The strongest winds will likely be in the Gulf
waters where tropical storm conditions will be possible, while
high-end (i.e. gusts 30-35kts and seas 7-10 ft) small craft
advisory conditions can be expected across the Atlantic waters.
Additionally stronger gusts can be expected in any
thunderstorms/bands.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1217 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

As winds increase out of the south southeast, a high risk of rip
currents will remain in place across the Atlantic Coast beaches
throughout the weekend. As winds shift and become more south
southwest as Tropical Depression Four pushes off to the north, this
will result in a high risk of rip currents over the Gulf Coast
beaches for the second half of the weekend into early next week.
Additionally, minor to moderate coastal flooding may occur along
the Gulf Coast during Sunday's high tide.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  91  82  93 /  60  50  40  50
West Kendall     78  90  79  94 /  60  50  40  50
Opa-Locka        80  92  81  94 /  60  50  30  50
Homestead        80  90  81  92 /  60  40  40  50
Fort Lauderdale  80  89  82  92 /  50  50  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  81  90  82  92 /  60  50  40  50
Pembroke Pines   80  93  81  96 /  50  50  40  50
West Palm Beach  80  92  81  93 /  60  50  30  60
Boca Raton       80  92  80  93 /  60  50  30  50
Naples           78  87  80  90 /  80  90  70  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ069-075.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ069.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EDT
     Sunday night for FLZ069-075-174.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

SHORT TERM...Carr
LONG TERM....Pine
AVIATION...RAG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
521 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
042130-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
521 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Tropical Headlines are in effect for portions of South Florida. See
latest Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Tropical Headlines are in effect for portions of South Florida. See
latest Hurricane Local Statement (HLS) for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report high wind, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service forecast office in Miami.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
914 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

FLZ063-066-067-071-072-040200-
Inland Broward County FL-Hendry FL-Metro Broward County FL-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-Glades FL-
914 PM EDT Sat Aug 3 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Hendry,
northern Broward, Palm Beach and southeastern Glades Counties through
1000 PM EDT...

At 914 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles north of
Intersection I-75 And U.S. 27 to near Rotenberger Wildlife Refuge.
Movement was north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Wellington, Belle Glade, Clewiston, Pahokee, South Bay, Lake Harbor,
Parkland, Okeelanta, Loxahatchee NWR, Rotenberger Wildlife Refuge,
Belle Glade Camp, Holey Land Wildlife Refuge, Lion Country Safari
Park, Fremd Village-Padgett Island, Loxahatchee Groves, and Harlem.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 2631 8022 2632 8092 2681 8099 2680 8096
      2681 8095 2677 8094 2673 8085 2670 8082
      2670 8078 2669 8074 2670 8072 2676 8075
      2678 8073 2675 8072 2674 8071 2676 8069
      2680 8070 2682 8068 2683 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 174DEG 34KT 2629 8043 2632 8087

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Fisher

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