Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
129 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are likely mid afternoon into mid evening. The
  primary threat with any severe storms that occur include damaging
  winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Confidence is high.

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible again Wednesday evening,
  mainly south of US 24. Localized heavy rain and flooding is the primary
  threat but a few storms could contain hail. Confidence is low.

- Cooler with chances for showers later this week into the weekend.
  Highs Friday into Sunday will be in the 60s. Otherwise temperatures
  will warm back into the mid 60s to mid 70s next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Post convective outflow bubble from this morning sharpening
effective warm frontal zone from nrn IL esewd through cntrl IN
and into wrn OH. This will mix further north into evening over
nrn IN and will yield a certain tornado risk given enlarging low
level shear across this boundary. Otherwise growing instability
wedge across the warm sector back west is primed to initiate
convection along/ahead of cold front pushing through wrn IL attm
with additional isolated storms out in front through the warm
sector also possible late this afternoon. Given degree of
expected instability in combo with enhancing deep layer shear
supercells are likely with primary sig hail risk and attendant
enhanced tor risk with discrete storms interacting with the warm
front.

Storms clear quickly far east by mid evening and then quiet
overnight within post cold frontal bubble. This is short lived
however as nrn plains upper flow wobbles east into the midwest Wed
and induces new sfc frontal wave across the mid MS valley. While
track of this is expected to hold south fairly robust warm advection
aloft expected to spread as far north as the US 24 corridor with
localized heavy rain far south Wed evening and perhaps some marginal
hail risk with stronger storms. Thereafter elongating upper trough
hangs back through the srn lakes with a risk for showers at times
through Saturday along with quite cool temps.

Upper pattern breaks back warmer yet continued unsettled longer term
by mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Behind this morning's band of showers and thunderstorms, enough
convergence and forcing within a still moisture atmospheric column
has been modeled to produce additional showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon. Models actually do create additional instability
this afternoon behind the morning convection allowing for the chance
for strong to severe thunderstorms. It appears the timing of
thunderstorms will be 20z to 00z this evening with all threats on
the table with any thunderstorm. It is interesting that cold
advection waits until this evening, after the passage of the storms
and likely holds off widespread MVFR CIGs until at least that point.
Although patchy MVFR and perhaps IFR conditions will be possible
within the stronger thunderstorms with heavy rain reducing VISBY.
There is some indication that we clear out after this evening's
storms, but the dry air should be enough to keep fog at bay
overnight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Roller

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
240 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

INZ005-006-008-012>015-017-103-104-116-203-204-216-MIZ078-079-177-
277-080900-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Noble-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Whitley-
Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-
Southern La Porte-Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-
240 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 /140 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024/

...TORNADO WATCH 195 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Severe storms are likely late this afternoon through early evening.
The primary threats are large hail and tornadoes with isolated
damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon.

INZ007-009-018-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-080900-
Steuben-De Kalb-Allen IN-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-
Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-
240 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe storms are likely this evening. The primary threats are large
hail and tornadoes with isolated damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

INZ026-027-033-034-OHZ024-025-080900-
Wells-Adams-Blackford-Jay-Van Wert-Allen OH-
240 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe storms are likely late this evening. The primary threats are
large hail and tornadoes with isolated damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Areas of heavy rain and localized flooding are possible Wednesday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

INZ020-022>025-032-080900-
White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Grant-
240 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...TORNADO WATCH 195 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Severe storms are likely late this afternoon through early evening.
The primary threats are large hail and tornadoes with isolated
damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Areas of heavy rain and localized flooding are possible Wednesday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon.

LMZ043-046-080900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
240 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...TORNADO WATCH 195 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Severe storms are likely this afternoon. The primary threats are
large hail with isolated damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
555 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

INZ015-023-024-072230-
Miami IN-Wabash IN-Fulton IN-
555 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WABASH...EAST
CENTRAL FULTON AND NORTHWESTERN MIAMI COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 555 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mexico, or near Peru, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Peru, Mexico, Erie, Denver, Roann, Macy, Chili, Richvalley,
Stockdale, Deedsville, Peoria, Gilead, and Disko.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for north central
Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 4071 8595 4075 8612 4101 8616 4104 8595
      4094 8582
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 206DEG 37KT 4082 8603

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
558 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Tornado          3 ESE Mendon            41.99N 85.41W
05/07/2024                   St. Joseph         MI   Trained Spotter

&&

NDM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
559 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     Hail             2 NNW Fairfax           41.98N 85.38W
05/07/2024  M1.75 Inch       St. Joseph         MI   Trained Spotter

&&

CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
616 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Tornado          Leonidas                42.02N 85.35W
05/07/2024                   St. Joseph         MI   Broadcast Media

            Tree damage reported in Leonidas by
            broadcast media.

&&

LWF

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
623 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     Hail             Union City              42.07N 85.14W
05/07/2024  E4.00 Inch       Branch             MI   Trained Spotter

            Picture shared on twitter of hail stone
            measuring upwards of 4 inches.

&&

LWF