Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Northern Indiana

May 7, 2024Cass County, Saint Joseph County, Michigan

NWS Northern Indiana issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 7, 2024, 5:14 PM EDT for Cass County, Saint Joseph County, Michigan. It was in force for 31 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 7, 2024, 5:14 PM EDT (21:14 UTC)
Expired: May 7, 2024, 5:45 PM EDT
In force: 31 min
Issued by: NWS Northern Indiana
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 0.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Cass County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 57 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 7, 5:30 PM EDT	HAIL 1.5	Three Rivers, MI	Delayed report. Time estimated by radar.
May 7, 5:30 PM EDT	HAIL 1.5	Three Rivers, MI	Delayed report. Time estimated by radar.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 16 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 7, 2:28 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	12 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 213 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1533 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 17 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 106 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 79 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

700 
WUUS53 KIWX 072114
SVRIWX
MIC027-149-072145-
/O.NEW.KIWX.SV.W.0039.240507T2114Z-240507T2145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
514 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Cass County in southwestern Michigan...
  Western St. Joseph County in southwestern Michigan...

* Until 545 PM EDT.

* At 513 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
  Constantine, or 10 miles southwest of Three Rivers, moving north at
  45 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Three Rivers, Constantine, Cassopolis, White Pigeon, Marcellus,
  Union, Penn, Flowerfield, Mottville, Vandalia, Moore Park, Paradise
  Lake, Calvin Center, Donnell Lake, Fishers Lake, Jones, Diamond
  Lake, Corey Lake, Shavehead Lake, and Howardsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for southwestern
Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4179 8561 4176 8576 4176 8598 4207 8600
      4207 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 194DEG 38KT 4187 8581 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

DN

1 follow-up statement

350 
WWUS53 KIWX 072127
SVSIWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
527 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

MIC027-149-072145-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-240507T2145Z/
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
527 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CASS AND WESTERN ST. JOSEPH COUNTIES...

At 526 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Three Rivers,
moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Three Rivers, Constantine, White Pigeon, Flowerfield, Jones, Moore
Park, Corey Lake, Howardsville, Clear Lake, and Fishers Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for southwestern
Michigan.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4181 8560 4180 8582 4207 8578 4207 8552
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 199DEG 26KT 4192 8571 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

DN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 7, 1:29 PM EDT, 3 hours 45 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

Severe storms are likely mid afternoon into mid evening. The primary threat with any severe storms that occur include damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Confidence is high.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible again Wednesday evening, mainly south of US 24. Localized heavy rain and flooding is the primary threat but a few storms could contain hail. Confidence is low.
Cooler with chances for showers later this week into the weekend. Highs Friday into Sunday will be in the 60s. Otherwise temperatures will warm back into the mid 60s to mid 70s next week.

Area forecast discussion, May 7, 1:29 PM EDT, 3 hours 45 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
129 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are likely mid afternoon into mid evening. The
  primary threat with any severe storms that occur include damaging
  winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Confidence is high.

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible again Wednesday evening,
  mainly south of US 24. Localized heavy rain and flooding is the primary
  threat but a few storms could contain hail. Confidence is low.

- Cooler with chances for showers later this week into the weekend.
  Highs Friday into Sunday will be in the 60s. Otherwise temperatures
  will warm back into the mid 60s to mid 70s next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Post convective outflow bubble from this morning sharpening
effective warm frontal zone from nrn IL esewd through cntrl IN
and into wrn OH. This will mix further north into evening over
nrn IN and will yield a certain tornado risk given enlarging low
level shear across this boundary. Otherwise growing instability
wedge across the warm sector back west is primed to initiate
convection along/ahead of cold front pushing through wrn IL attm
with additional isolated storms out in front through the warm
sector also possible late this afternoon. Given degree of
expected instability in combo with enhancing deep layer shear
supercells are likely with primary sig hail risk and attendant
enhanced tor risk with discrete storms interacting with the warm
front.

Storms clear quickly far east by mid evening and then quiet
overnight within post cold frontal bubble. This is short lived
however as nrn plains upper flow wobbles east into the midwest Wed
and induces new sfc frontal wave across the mid MS valley. While
track of this is expected to hold south fairly robust warm advection
aloft expected to spread as far north as the US 24 corridor with
localized heavy rain far south Wed evening and perhaps some marginal
hail risk with stronger storms. Thereafter elongating upper trough
hangs back through the srn lakes with a risk for showers at times
through Saturday along with quite cool temps.

Upper pattern breaks back warmer yet continued unsettled longer term
by mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Behind this morning's band of showers and thunderstorms, enough
convergence and forcing within a still moisture atmospheric column
has been modeled to produce additional showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon. Models actually do create additional instability
this afternoon behind the morning convection allowing for the chance
for strong to severe thunderstorms. It appears the timing of
thunderstorms will be 20z to 00z this evening with all threats on
the table with any thunderstorm. It is interesting that cold
advection waits until this evening, after the passage of the storms
and likely holds off widespread MVFR CIGs until at least that point.
Although patchy MVFR and perhaps IFR conditions will be possible
within the stronger thunderstorms with heavy rain reducing VISBY.
There is some indication that we clear out after this evening's
storms, but the dry air should be enough to keep fog at bay
overnight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Roller

Hazardous weather outlook, May 7, 2:40 PM EDT, 2 hours 34 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
240 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

INZ005-006-008-012>015-017-103-104-116-203-204-216-MIZ078-079-177-
277-080900-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Noble-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Whitley-
Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-
Southern La Porte-Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-
240 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024 /140 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024/

...TORNADO WATCH 195 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
southwest Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Severe storms are likely late this afternoon through early evening.
The primary threats are large hail and tornadoes with isolated
damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon.

INZ007-009-018-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-080900-
Steuben-De Kalb-Allen IN-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-
Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-
240 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe storms are likely this evening. The primary threats are large
hail and tornadoes with isolated damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

INZ026-027-033-034-OHZ024-025-080900-
Wells-Adams-Blackford-Jay-Van Wert-Allen OH-
240 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana and
northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe storms are likely late this evening. The primary threats are
large hail and tornadoes with isolated damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Areas of heavy rain and localized flooding are possible Wednesday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this evening.

INZ020-022>025-032-080900-
White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Grant-
240 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...TORNADO WATCH 195 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Severe storms are likely late this afternoon through early evening.
The primary threats are large hail and tornadoes with isolated
damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Areas of heavy rain and localized flooding are possible Wednesday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon.

LMZ043-046-080900-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
240 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...TORNADO WATCH 195 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Severe storms are likely this afternoon. The primary threats are
large hail with isolated damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 7, 4:26 PM EDT, 48 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
426 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     Hail             Michigan City           41.72N 86.88W
05/07/2024  M2.50 Inch       La Porte           IN   Trained Spotter

&&

NDM

Local storm report, May 7, 4:27 PM EDT, 47 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
427 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     Hail             1 NW Michigan City      41.72N 86.89W
05/07/2024  M1.75 Inch       La Porte           IN   Trained Spotter

&&

NDM

Local storm report, May 7, 4:35 PM EDT, 39 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
435 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     Hail             1 S Michigan City       41.70N 86.88W
05/07/2024  M2.00 Inch       La Porte           IN   Trained Spotter

&&

NDM

Local storm report, May 7, 4:39 PM EDT, 35 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
439 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     Hail             1 W Michiana Shores     41.75N 86.83W
05/07/2024  M1.00 Inch       La Porte           IN   Trained Spotter

&&

NDM

Local storm report, May 7, 4:43 PM EDT, 31 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
443 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     Hail             New Buffalo             41.79N 86.74W
05/07/2024  M1.00 Inch       Berrien            MI   Trained Spotter

&&

CR

Special weather statement, May 7, 4:55 PM EDT, 19 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
455 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

INZ005-104-MIZ078-072130-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Elkhart IN-Cass MI-
455 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ELKHART...
NORTHEASTERN ST. JOSEPH AND CASS COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

At 455 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Granger, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
South Bend, Elkhart, Mishawaka, Niles, Dowagiac, Simonton Lake,
Granger, Dunlap, Osceola, Cassopolis, Edwardsburg, Marcellus, Union,
Pokagon, Penn, Vandalia, La Grange, Adamsville, Juno Lake, and
Donnell Lake.

This includes Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 79 and
98.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for north central
Indiana...and southwestern Michigan.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 8576 4187 8576 4165 8589 4164 8623
      4197 8621 4205 8590
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 199DEG 37KT 4174 8606

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Northern Indiana issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 7, 4:29 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	IWX	Berrien	46 min
May 7, 4:55 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	IWX	Cass	35 min
May 7, 4:59 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	IWX	Berrien, Cass	46 min
May 7, 5:33 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	IWX	Saint Joseph	32 min
May 7, 5:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	IWX	Branch, Saint Joseph	43 min
May 7, 5:57 PM EDT	Tornado Warning EmergencyTornado observedConsiderable damage threat	IWX	Branch, Saint Joseph	33 min
May 7, 6:01 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	IWX	Branch, Hillsdale	44 min
May 7, 6:06 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Berrien	24 min
May 7, 6:15 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	IWX	Branch, Hillsdale	45 min
May 7, 6:27 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	IWX	Van Buren	18 min
May 7, 6:55 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	IWX	Hillsdale	17 min
May 7, 7:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Destructive damage threat	IWX	Hillsdale	51 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2024 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.