Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
623 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2024

Key messages:

- Risk for severe thunderstorms across all of Central Alabama this
morning and afternoon. Damaging wind gusts, and perhaps some large
hail, are the main threats. Flooding potential is limited at this
time.

An elongated line of thunderstorms, from near Dallas, TX to
Nashville, TN, is currently approaching Central Alabama. It is on
pace to move into our northwest counties ~4 AM, perhaps an hour or
so ahead of recent CAMs. At this time there are no warnings and the
highest measured convective gusts I can find is 43 kts and 41 kts
(both in MS). Nonetheless, we'll certainly be monitoring this MCS
this morning. Despite little support/forcing aloft, RAP
mesoanalysis depicts 500-1,500 J/kg SBCAPE with 40- 55 kts eff.
bulk shear, with better instability values west of I-65. A ~30 kt
southwesterly LLJ is feeding into the MCS, and it appears to be
relatively balanced with its cold pool. Thankfully the orientation
of the convective line is nearly parallel to 0-3 km shear vectors
which is limiting embedded tornado potential significantly.

The MCS should progress southeastward throughout the morning
approaching the I-59 corridor 7-8 AM and should near the I-85
corridor 1-2 PM. Forecast expectations are that our southeast
counties will be clearing 4-5 PM. Flooding should be very limited
due to the transient nature of the system.

Lingering stratiform rain will likely persist across the area
through this afternoon/evening followed by low clouds and patchy fog
after Midnight which will persist into tomorrow morning. We should
warm back into the 70s tomorrow with a slight northwesterly breeze
and decreasing cloud cover.

40/Sizemore

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2024

An active southern stream jet pattern will bring one more impulse
across the Central Gulf Coast region Saturday night and Sunday. This
impulse will mainly impact south Alabama where forecast rainfall
totals will average around one inch for areas along and south of
Interstate 85, tapering to around one-quarter of an inch along the
Interstate 20 corridor. Northerly low level flow across Alabama
during the day Saturday will usher in a cooler air mass, so by the
time the rain arrives on Sunday, there will be little or no surface
based instability. Flooding also not a concern due to weaker
rainfall rates due to lack of convection. The rain should exit south
Alabama Sunday evening with much cooler air advecting into area
Monday and Tuesday. Freezing temperatures expected across a large
portion of central Alabama Tuesday morning, with lows ranging from
the upper 20s north of I-20 to middle 30s along the I-85 corridor. A
warming trend will ensue after Tuesday with rain chances increasing
by the end of the week.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2024

A line of thunderstorms is moving through central AL, and expected
to continue to the southeast through the day. Conditions will
deteriorate while the line is over a TAF site, with LIFR or IFR
conditions. Behind the main line, thunder is expected to continue
for several hours. Plenty of low level moisture will keep MVFR
ceilings in areas ahead of the line, and IFR ceilings in areas
with the line and behind the line of storms. Overnight, rain will
end by around midnight for all sites except KMGM and KTOI where
rain should linger into the early morning. IFR ceilings will be
expected from the early morning through the end of the TAF period
for all TAF sites.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain and thunderstorms will affect Central Alabama today,
providing a widespread soaking. Somewhat drier air returns
tomorrow with northwesterly winds around 5 mph. Rain returns to
the area on Sunday before noticeably cooler, drier air moves into
Central Alabama on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  54  70  48 /  90  50   0  10
Anniston    73  57  71  51 /  90  60   0  10
Birmingham  72  57  71  52 /  90  50   0  10
Tuscaloosa  74  58  73  53 /  90  50   0  20
Calera      73  58  72  53 /  90  60   0  20
Auburn      76  60  74  55 /  90  70  10  20
Montgomery  79  61  75  57 /  90  70  10  20
Troy        80  62  77  59 /  80  70  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...40
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
255 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

ALZ011>015-017>050-161100-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
255 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across all of Central
Alabama through this afternoon. Threats include damaging wind gusts
up to 60 mph and quarter size hail.

Isolated flooding could also occur due to locally heavy rainfall,
mainly in urban and other poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
today.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
652 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

ALZ015-023-024-151230-
Walker AL-Jefferson AL-Tuscaloosa AL-
652 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WALKER...CENTRAL
TUSCALOOSA AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES THROUGH 730 AM CDT...

At 652 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sumiton to near Bankhead Lock And Dam to
Tuscaloosa. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Bessemer, Homewood, Northport, Mountain
Brook, Trussville, Hueytown, Gardendale, Irondale, Fairfield,
Fultondale, Sumiton, Dora, Holt, Center Point, Pleasant Grove, Clay,
Pinson, and Tarrant.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
central and west central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3355 8737 3386 8698 3382 8695 3384 8688
      3384 8676 3377 8665 3376 8654 3370 8652
      3362 8654 3336 8696 3325 8703 3325 8708
      3322 8710 3324 8714 3319 8720 3313 8720
      3313 8728 3309 8731 3317 8766
TIME...MOT...LOC 1152Z 297DEG 26KT 3377 8695 3352 8735 3321 8756

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

40/Sizemore

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
657 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNW Belk              33.67N 87.94W
03/15/2024                   Fayette            AL   Emergency Mngr

            Trees and power lines reported down near the
            intersection of County Road 23 and County
            Road 105 in Fayette County.

&&

JH