Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
251 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2024

Key messages:

- Risk for severe thunderstorms across all of Central Alabama this
morning and afternoon. Damaging wind gusts, and perhaps some large
hail, are the main threats. Flooding potential is limited at this
time.

An elongated line of thunderstorms, from near Dallas, TX to
Nashville, TN, is currently approaching Central Alabama. It is on
pace to move into our northwest counties ~4 AM, perhaps an hour or
so ahead of recent CAMs. At this time there are no warnings and the
highest measured convective gusts I can find is 43 kts and 41 kts
(both in MS). Nonetheless, we'll certainly be monitoring this MCS
this morning. Despite little support/forcing aloft, RAP
mesoanalysis depicts 500-1,500 J/kg SBCAPE with 40- 55 kts eff.
bulk shear, with better instability values west of I-65. A ~30 kt
southwesterly LLJ is feeding into the MCS, and it appears to be
relatively balanced with its cold pool. Thankfully the orientation
of the convective line is nearly parallel to 0-3 km shear vectors
which is limiting embedded tornado potential significantly.

The MCS should progress southeastward throughout the morning
approaching the I-59 corridor 7-8 AM and should near the I-85
corridor 1-2 PM. Forecast expectations are that our southeast
counties will be clearing 4-5 PM. Flooding should be very limited
due to the transient nature of the system.

Lingering stratiform rain will likely persist across the area
through this afternoon/evening followed by low clouds and patchy fog
after Midnight which will persist into tomorrow morning. We should
warm back into the 70s tomorrow with a slight northwesterly breeze
and decreasing cloud cover.

40/Sizemore

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2024

An active southern stream jet pattern will bring one more impulse
across the Central Gulf Coast region Saturday night and Sunday. This
impulse will mainly impact south Alabama where forecast rainfall
totals will average around one inch for areas along and south of
Interstate 85, tapering to around one-quarter of an inch along the
Interstate 20 corridor. Northerly low level flow across Alabama
during the day Saturday will usher in a cooler air mass, so by the
time the rain arrives on Sunday, there will be little or no surface
based instability. Flooding also not a concern due to weaker
rainfall rates due to lack of convection. The rain should exit south
Alabama Sunday evening with much cooler air advecting into area
Monday and Tuesday. Freezing temperatures expected across a large
portion of central Alabama Tuesday morning, with lows ranging from
the upper 20s north of I-20 to middle 30s along the I-85 corridor. A
warming trend will ensue after Tuesday with rain chances increasing
by the end of the week.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2024

There's a small list of flight impacts during this TAF period,
mainly due to a large area oncoming convection. An elongated line
of TSRA is now south of I-40 and will be impacting terminals near
I-20 12-15z. We expect decreasing cig/vis as well as convective
gusts ~30 kts, perhaps higher in stronger TSRA. Implemented TEMPOs
for this impact. We'll also see decreasing cig (MVFR/IFR) ahead
of the convection this morning, and fog may also be an issue near
TOI.

Lingering TSRA and/or RA will finally exit the area toward the
end of this TAF period. However, IFR cigs are forecast with FG
also a potential near MGM and TOI which will likely persist into
the next TAF period as well.

40/Sizemore

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain and thunderstorms will affect Central Alabama today,
providing a widespread soaking. Somewhat drier air returns
tomorrow with northwesterly winds around 5 mph. Rain returns to
the area on Sunday before noticeably cooler, drier air moves into
Central Alabama on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  54  70  48 /  90  50   0  10
Anniston    73  57  71  51 /  90  60   0  10
Birmingham  72  57  71  52 /  90  50   0  10
Tuscaloosa  74  58  73  53 /  90  50   0  20
Calera      73  58  72  53 /  90  60   0  20
Auburn      76  60  74  55 /  90  70  10  20
Montgomery  79  61  75  57 /  90  70  10  20
Troy        80  62  77  59 /  80  70  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...40/Sizemore
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...40/Sizemore

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
255 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

ALZ011>015-017>050-161100-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
255 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across all of Central
Alabama through this afternoon. Threats include damaging wind gusts
up to 60 mph and quarter size hail.

Isolated flooding could also occur due to locally heavy rainfall,
mainly in urban and other poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
today.