Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Birmingham, AL

329 
WWUS54 KBMX 150004
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
704 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ALC093-150030-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-240315T0030Z/
Marion AL-
704 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY...

At 703 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Tremont, or 12
miles northwest of Hamilton, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Shottsville and Bexar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8798 3412 8820 3432 8818
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 217DEG 30KT 3422 8818 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

86/Martin

672 
WWUS54 KBMX 150020
SVSBMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
720 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ALC093-150030-
/O.EXP.KBMX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-240315T0030Z/
Marion AL-
720 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8798 3412 8820 3432 8818
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 217DEG 30KT 3433 8808 

$$

86/Martin

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
614 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 144 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2024

Longwave ridging was to our east, extending from over the Western
Caribbean Sea north to over the Mid Atlantic Region while a
closed low was centered over the Desert Southwest. Surface high
pressure was centered over the Southwest Atlantic Basin while a
stationary front extended from the Northeast Ohio River Vally
Region southwest across the Central Plains and into Arizona.

Key Messages:

- Expect showers with some thunderstorms to develop and move
  across the western counties late this afternoon and tonight.

- A convective complex will likely develop overnight and move
  southeast into the area from the early morning hours through
  much of the day, resulting in heavy rainfall and a potential for
  locally damaging winds along the leading edge of the storms.

This afternoon.

The forecast area will be positioned beneath southwesterly flow
in the mid levels as a few disturbances begin to approach the area
from the west. A few showers have recently developed across
North-Central Mississippi with more development expected through
the rest of the afternoon across the far west and southwest
portions of the area through time. Showers will be predominant but
a few thunderstorms can not be ruled out. Otherwise, expect
increasing high and mid level clouds from the west. Winds will be
from the south from 4-8 mph. Highs will range from the upper 70s
far east to the low 80s west and south.

Tonight.

A southwest flow will persist aloft overnight with continued low-
level moisture advection into the area. Surface high pressure
will be further to our east while low pressure advances east
across the Central Plains. Look for increasing clouds areawide
with showers and some thunderstorms to continue across the western
counties and increasing in coverage across the northwest counties
toward and after midnight. Winds will remain from the south at
3-6 mph. Low temperatures will range from around 60 east and
northeast to readings in the mid 60s southwest.

Friday.

Several shortwave disturbances will move northeast over the area,
supporting cloudy skies with further increases in shower and
thunderstorm activity. The forecast area will remain between
surface high pressure well to the southeast and an approaching
outflow boundary/cold pool that will move into the northwest
counties toward daybreak, ahead of anticipated ongoing convection
along and ahead of a cold front that will be approaching the mid
and Lower Mississippi River Valley Region from the west. Activity
to our west and northwest overnight is expected to undergo upscale
growth into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) and push
southeast into the area. Damaging winds will be a risk generally
along the leading edge of the convection if it remains along the
cold pool/outflow boundary. Heavy rainfall will remain a risk but
the progressive nature of the potential MCS will reduce duration
time and limit accumulation to generally one to two inches. The
activity will continue to push southeast with time across our
southern counties through much of the afternoon and into the
evening hours. Winds will become more southwesterly with time with
speeds from 5-10 mph and gusty near thunderstorms. A thermal
gradient will exist through the early afternoon between the rain-
cooled northern portion of the area and the southeast counties
ahead of the convective activity. Expect a thermal range in the
afternoon between temperatures near 70 far north and the low 80s
far southeast.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2024

No significant changes needed to the long term this afternoon, as
model trends continue to show lower rainfall amounts for the
weekend (2-2.5in across the northwest to 1 inch in the
southeast). Frost will be possible for portions of the area Monday
and Wednesday mornings, with most of the area falling to or below
freezing Tuesday morning. Expect mid 20s north to mid 30s far
south. See the discussion below for more details.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT THU MAR 14 2024

Key messages:

- Rainfall amounts continue to trend downward over the weekend and
  flooding is no longer expected at this time.

- A freeze is likely across northern portions of the area Monday
  night.

A rex block will be in place over the western CONUS for much of the
period, while a longwave trough gradually amplifies over the eastern
CONUS. Lingering showers and storms should weaken Friday evening
with the loss of daytime heating, while cooler and drier air moves
in behind the cold front. The front is now expected to stall further
south along the Gulf Coast over the weekend. Some guidance still
indicates an isolated shower or storm remaining possible in our
southern counties with remnant moisture near the frontal zone, but
for most Saturday is shaping up to be a nice day for outdoor
activities, with dry conditions continuing into Saturday evening as
well. A weak southern stream shortwave moves along the Gulf Coast
late Saturday night and Sunday while another cold front arrives from
the north with the amplifying longwave trough. Guidance continues to
struggle with the timing of the wave and whether there will be any
partial phasing between these features. Highest rain chances will be
in the far southern counties, but with the stalled front now
remaining along the Gulf Coast any elevated instability will be
weak. This suggests rainfall rates will be light to moderate at
best, so have removed the mention of flooding from our messaging.

Strong cold air advection arrives by Monday. Winds should go calm by
Tuesday morning as high pressure moves overhead. This will result in
favorable radiational cooling conditions. NBM indicates a 40-75%
chance of subfreezing low temperatures across the northern half of
the area, and a 20 to 40% chance across the southern half.
Probabilities are of course highest in the typically cooler
locations. Frost appears likely across the area as well for areas
that decouple, causing dew point depressions to decrease due to
wet ground conditions. Dry northwest flow aloft continues through
at least Tuesday night, with models not surprisingly diverging on
how quickly the Desert Southwest cutoff low moves eastward.
Temperatures will trend upward, but expect another night of frost
in the northeastern valleys Tuesday night.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT THU MAR 14 2024

VFR conditions Thursday evening will give way to IFR on Friday as
a complex of rain and storms sweeps across the region, with some
low cloud development preceeding by a couple hours. The batch of
storms will include a squall featuring shifting and gusty winds.
Lingering rain is expected behind the storms. Expect some tweaks
to time of arrival in forthcoming TAF cycles.

89^GSatterwhite

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible this
evening across the west. A line of showers and storms will move
through tomorrow, entering the northwest before sunrise and
pushing southward through the day. Drier air returns Saturday with
another chance of rain on Sunday. Southwesterly 20ft winds
increase to 6-8mph tomorrow and become northwesterly by Saturday
morning thru Sunday, with speeds below 10mph. Northwesterly 20ft
winds at 10-15mph are possible Monday, with minimum RH values in
the 25 to 30 percent range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     59  73  54  72 /  40 100  40   0
Anniston    60  74  57  72 /  30 100  50  10
Birmingham  63  74  57  72 /  40 100  40   0
Tuscaloosa  63  76  57  74 /  40 100  40  10
Calera      63  75  58  73 /  40 100  50  10
Auburn      60  78  60  75 /  10  90  60  10
Montgomery  62  81  61  76 /  20  90  60  10
Troy        61  83  63  78 /  10  90  60  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...89^GSatterwhite

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
250 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ALZ011>015-017>050-151100-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
250 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across all of Central
Alabama Friday morning through Friday evening. Threats include
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and quarter size hail. Isolated
flooding could also occur due to locally heavy rainfall, mainly in
urban and other poor drainage areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
on Friday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
458 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ALZ030-142245-
Sumter AL-
458 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 457 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Porterville, or 9 miles southeast of De Kalb, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville, Emelle, Panola, Geiger, Warsaw, and Sumterville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3299 8834 3300 8817 3296 8816 3296 8819
      3294 8817 3294 8820 3292 8821 3291 8819
      3288 8818 3286 8816 3284 8818 3282 8816
      3283 8814 3280 8810 3281 8808 3279 8806
      3277 8808 3278 8810 3275 8811 3263 8838
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 229DEG 26KT 3269 8852

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

86/Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
644 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ALZ011-012-150030-
Marion AL-Lamar AL-
644 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MARION AND NORTHWESTERN
LAMAR COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 644 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Evergreen to near Detroit. Movement was
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Hamilton, Hackleburg, Detroit, Weston, Bear Creek, Henson Springs,
Tessner, Shottsville, Rankin Fite Airport, Byrd, Bexar, Pigeye, and
Upper Bear Creek Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8817 3431 8764 3396 8814 3391 8822
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 217DEG 30KT 3414 8847 3399 8816

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

86/Martin