Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
623 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2024

Key messages:

- Risk for severe thunderstorms across all of Central Alabama this
morning and afternoon. Damaging wind gusts, and perhaps some large
hail, are the main threats. Flooding potential is limited at this
time.

An elongated line of thunderstorms, from near Dallas, TX to
Nashville, TN, is currently approaching Central Alabama. It is on
pace to move into our northwest counties ~4 AM, perhaps an hour or
so ahead of recent CAMs. At this time there are no warnings and the
highest measured convective gusts I can find is 43 kts and 41 kts
(both in MS). Nonetheless, we'll certainly be monitoring this MCS
this morning. Despite little support/forcing aloft, RAP
mesoanalysis depicts 500-1,500 J/kg SBCAPE with 40- 55 kts eff.
bulk shear, with better instability values west of I-65. A ~30 kt
southwesterly LLJ is feeding into the MCS, and it appears to be
relatively balanced with its cold pool. Thankfully the orientation
of the convective line is nearly parallel to 0-3 km shear vectors
which is limiting embedded tornado potential significantly.

The MCS should progress southeastward throughout the morning
approaching the I-59 corridor 7-8 AM and should near the I-85
corridor 1-2 PM. Forecast expectations are that our southeast
counties will be clearing 4-5 PM. Flooding should be very limited
due to the transient nature of the system.

Lingering stratiform rain will likely persist across the area
through this afternoon/evening followed by low clouds and patchy fog
after Midnight which will persist into tomorrow morning. We should
warm back into the 70s tomorrow with a slight northwesterly breeze
and decreasing cloud cover.

40/Sizemore

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2024

An active southern stream jet pattern will bring one more impulse
across the Central Gulf Coast region Saturday night and Sunday. This
impulse will mainly impact south Alabama where forecast rainfall
totals will average around one inch for areas along and south of
Interstate 85, tapering to around one-quarter of an inch along the
Interstate 20 corridor. Northerly low level flow across Alabama
during the day Saturday will usher in a cooler air mass, so by the
time the rain arrives on Sunday, there will be little or no surface
based instability. Flooding also not a concern due to weaker
rainfall rates due to lack of convection. The rain should exit south
Alabama Sunday evening with much cooler air advecting into area
Monday and Tuesday. Freezing temperatures expected across a large
portion of central Alabama Tuesday morning, with lows ranging from
the upper 20s north of I-20 to middle 30s along the I-85 corridor. A
warming trend will ensue after Tuesday with rain chances increasing
by the end of the week.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT FRI MAR 15 2024

A line of thunderstorms is moving through central AL, and expected
to continue to the southeast through the day. Conditions will
deteriorate while the line is over a TAF site, with LIFR or IFR
conditions. Behind the main line, thunder is expected to continue
for several hours. Plenty of low level moisture will keep MVFR
ceilings in areas ahead of the line, and IFR ceilings in areas
with the line and behind the line of storms. Overnight, rain will
end by around midnight for all sites except KMGM and KTOI where
rain should linger into the early morning. IFR ceilings will be
expected from the early morning through the end of the TAF period
for all TAF sites.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain and thunderstorms will affect Central Alabama today,
providing a widespread soaking. Somewhat drier air returns
tomorrow with northwesterly winds around 5 mph. Rain returns to
the area on Sunday before noticeably cooler, drier air moves into
Central Alabama on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  54  70  48 /  90  50   0  10
Anniston    73  57  71  51 /  90  60   0  10
Birmingham  72  57  71  52 /  90  50   0  10
Tuscaloosa  74  58  73  53 /  90  50   0  20
Calera      73  58  72  53 /  90  60   0  20
Auburn      76  60  74  55 /  90  70  10  20
Montgomery  79  61  75  57 /  90  70  10  20
Troy        80  62  77  59 /  80  70  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...40
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
255 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

ALZ011>015-017>050-161100-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
255 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across all of Central
Alabama through this afternoon. Threats include damaging wind gusts
up to 60 mph and quarter size hail.

Isolated flooding could also occur due to locally heavy rainfall,
mainly in urban and other poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management may be needed
today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
747 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

ALZ023>025-034-151345-
Bibb AL-Jefferson AL-Shelby AL-Tuscaloosa AL-
747 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN TUSCALOOSA...
SHELBY...NORTHEASTERN BIBB AND SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES
THROUGH 845 AM CDT...

At 746 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Birmingham to near Woodstock. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Birmingham, Hoover, Vestavia Hills, Alabaster, Bessemer, Homewood,
Pelham, Mountain Brook, Helena, Irondale, Calera, Chelsea,
Montevallo, Columbiana, Wilsonville, Midfield, Brighton, Indian
Springs Village, Lipscomb, and Vincent.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
central and west central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8731 3356 8679 3335 8636 3307 8680
      3307 8688 3301 8688 3294 8699
TIME...MOT...LOC 1246Z 316DEG 24KT 3349 8684 3324 8713

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
748 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Oneonta            33.93N 86.49W
03/15/2024                   Blount             AL   Emergency Mngr

            Trees reported down along Lakeshore Drive in
            Oneonta. Report of power lines down along
            2nd Avenue West and along County Highway 42.

&&

JH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
749 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

ALZ021-025>028-151315-
Clay AL-Shelby AL-Talladega AL-St. Clair AL-Cleburne AL-
749 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL TALLADEGA...NORTHEASTERN
SHELBY...SOUTH CENTRAL ST. CLAIR...SOUTHWESTERN CLEBURNE AND NORTH
CENTRAL CLAY COUNTIES THROUGH 815 AM CDT...

At 749 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Talladega Municipal Airport to Fowler Lake.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Oxford, Talladega, Pell City, Childersburg, Lincoln, Vincent,
Harpersville, Munford, Westover, Waldo, Bon Air, Alpine Bay Resort,
Winterboro, Talladega Superspeedway, Vandiver, Greystone, Talladega
Municipal Airport, Grant Town, Alpine, and Logan Martin Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
central Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 8635 3343 8670 3360 8604 3361 8602
      3360 8600 3359 8599 3359 8592 3352 8563
TIME...MOT...LOC 1249Z 287DEG 38KT 3358 8604 3343 8665

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25/Owen

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
802 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SSE Big Wills Creek   33.97N 85.99W
03/15/2024                   Etowah             AL   Emergency Mngr

            Report of a tree down blocking Whorten Bend
            Road at Whippoorwill, report via social
            media.

&&

JH

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