Severe Thunderstorm Warning 384, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
656 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Isolated convection has recently developed across NE OK in a
corridor of prefrontal mid level warm advection. While these
storms are likely rooted above the boundary layer per the 19z
KOUN sounding, steep lapse rates and sufficient shear is available
to support a severe potential with large hail the initial concern.
Should convection continue to foster within this pre frontal
corridor the chances of more surface based storms will increase
along with a corresponding uptick in severe potential. The more
probable scenario is additional storms initiate ahead of the cold
front across far NE OK and southern KS by late afternoon and
quickly become severe as the full instability / shear profile can
be realized. Initial supercell storms will have slower storm
motions as low level shear increases and cell interaction along
with a growing cold pool will become more probable. The result is
likely to be a steady upscale growth into severe storm clusters
with a window for all severe hazards along with an increasing
flood threat. The storm complex will spread east and southeast
through the evening and overnight hours. The trend will be toward
more of a flooding risk, however a risk of strong downbursts may
continue into the overnight hours as the shallow moisture profiles
allow aggressive downdrafts. The consensus for the heavier
rainfall footprint is slightly eastward through tonight and the
flood watch has been expanded accordingly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Storms will likely be ongoing early Sunday but in a weakened state
across SE OK into western AR. The progression of the associated
outflow boundary will be an important feature regarding additional
storm develop later in the day Sunday through Sunday night. As
another mid level influences the region late Sunday storms will
develop and strengthen along and especially south of the outflow
boundary. There is potential for another round of heavy rain
across SE OK through Sunday night and this area may require a
flood watch as trends become more clear. Precip should be ending
from north to south through the day Monday with dry weather and
warm temperatures then set to prevail for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Thunderstorms increasing in coverage across eastern OK expected to
form into one or more clusters and move east and south through the
evening eventually impacting KMLC and AR terminals. Sufficient
instability for tempo group to include IFR conditions and gusty
winds in excess of 30kt as main convective cluster moves through.
Expect storms to clear northeast OK sites after 05Z but linger in
AR and at KMLC through 11Z. Low clouds will spread in behind
convective activity as frontal boundary slowly sinks south across
the area with MVFR conditions likely. CLoud may break or rise to
VFR during the afternoon but confidence low at best in timing. Late
afternoon storms may start near KMLC but left mention out of TAF
for now with uncertainty in timing and recovery of airmass in wake
of morning activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  82  63  86 /  80  30  30   0
FSM   72  84  69  87 / 100  70  60  30
MLC   71  87  66  86 /  80  60  60  20
BVO   64  83  57  86 /  80  20  10   0
FYV   65  82  61  84 / 100  60  50  20
BYV   66  81  61  81 /  90  60  40  20
MKO   68  81  64  84 /  90  50  40  10
MIO   66  81  59  83 /  90  30  20   0
F10   67  82  63  83 /  80  50  40  10
HHW   72  87  67  84 /  70  70  80  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-055>058-060>063-
     067>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
547 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
547 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...Severe weather likely this evening with the threat for
flash flooding into the overnight hours...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
    ONSET...early evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread thunderstorms will develop along an advancing cold
front across northeast into central Oklahoma this evening. The
activity will move east into northwest Arkansas and the southeast
portion of Oklahoma by midnight. Sufficient instability and wind
shear will be present for all forms of severe weather with very
large hail being the most likely threat. A tornado or two will be
possible early this evening as more discrete storms form along the
front and southward along a pre-frontal trough. As the intense
complex of storms slowly moves east late this evening through the
early morning hours Sunday, the potential for damaging winds and flash
flooding will increase. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches will be possible through Sunday morning with locally higher
totals approaching 5 inches possible.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY THROUGH Friday...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the frontal boundary across southeast Oklahoma into west-
central Arkansas during the afternoon Sunday. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms however a
limited tornado threat will also exist. A flash flood watch may be
needed across southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas
especially where new thunderstorms overlap areas that receive
excessive rain overnight. A few storms could linger into Monday
morning before quiet weather returns through the rest of the
extended forecast.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Severe weather will increase from west to east this evening
including the potential for very heavy rainfall. The greatest risk
will be very large hail initially along with a tornado threat
especially with the more discrete cells that form along the
Interstate 44 corridor. Several clusters of severe storms are
expected to develop and move east and south across the remainder
of the area late this evening into the overnight hours Sunday. The
greatest risk of flash flooding will be where storms track across
areas that previously saw heavy rainfall.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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