Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Isolated convection has recently developed across NE OK in a
corridor of prefrontal mid level warm advection. While these
storms are likely rooted above the boundary layer per the 19z
KOUN sounding, steep lapse rates and sufficient shear is available
to support a severe potential with large hail the initial concern.
Should convection continue to foster within this pre frontal
corridor the chances of more surface based storms will increase
along with a corresponding uptick in severe potential. The more
probable scenario is additional storms initiate ahead of the cold
front across far NE OK and southern KS by late afternoon and
quickly become severe as the full instability / shear profile can
be realized. Initial supercell storms will have slower storm
motions as low level shear increases and cell interaction along
with a growing cold pool will become more probable. The result is
likely to be a steady upscale growth into severe storm clusters
with a window for all severe hazards along with an increasing
flood threat. The storm complex will spread east and southeast
through the evening and overnight hours. The trend will be toward
more of a flooding risk, however a risk of strong downbursts may
continue into the overnight hours as the shallow moisture profiles
allow aggressive downdrafts. The consensus for the heavier
rainfall footprint is slightly eastward through tonight and the
flood watch has been expanded accordingly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Storms will likely be ongoing early Sunday but in a weakened state
across SE OK into western AR. The progression of the associated
outflow boundary will be an important feature regarding additional
storm develop later in the day Sunday through Sunday night. As
another mid level influences the region late Sunday storms will
develop and strengthen along and especially south of the outflow
boundary. There is potential for another round of heavy rain
across SE OK through Sunday night and this area may require a
flood watch as trends become more clear. Precip should be ending
from north to south through the day Monday with dry weather and
warm temperatures then set to prevail for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms continue to impact
parts of southeast OK and western AR, with the threat of strong
wind gusts and IFR conditions for a few more hours. Additional
scattered storms will continue through a good portion of the night
before mostly exiting the area by 12z. A period of MVFR ceilings
is likely later tonight through Sunday morning behind the cold
front. Less certain is potential storm development Sunday
afternoon and evening with some newer guidance suggesting this
will occur southeast of TAF sites. For now will hold on to a
PROB30 for W AR and KMLC from 21-03z with possible MV FR
conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  86  61  86 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   69  87  64  87 /  60  30  10  10
MLC   66  86  61  87 /  60  20   0  10
BVO   57  86  56  86 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   61  84  58  83 /  50  20   0   0
BYV   61  81  59  81 /  40  20   0   0
MKO   64  84  59  85 /  40  10   0   0
MIO   59  83  58  83 /  20   0   0   0
F10   63  83  59  85 /  40  10   0   0
HHW   67  84  63  87 /  80  40   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ049-055>058-
     060>063-067>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
547 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
547 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...Severe weather likely this evening with the threat for
flash flooding into the overnight hours...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
    ONSET...early evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread thunderstorms will develop along an advancing cold
front across northeast into central Oklahoma this evening. The
activity will move east into northwest Arkansas and the southeast
portion of Oklahoma by midnight. Sufficient instability and wind
shear will be present for all forms of severe weather with very
large hail being the most likely threat. A tornado or two will be
possible early this evening as more discrete storms form along the
front and southward along a pre-frontal trough. As the intense
complex of storms slowly moves east late this evening through the
early morning hours Sunday, the potential for damaging winds and flash
flooding will increase. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches will be possible through Sunday morning with locally higher
totals approaching 5 inches possible.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY THROUGH Friday...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the frontal boundary across southeast Oklahoma into west-
central Arkansas during the afternoon Sunday. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms however a
limited tornado threat will also exist. A flash flood watch may be
needed across southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas
especially where new thunderstorms overlap areas that receive
excessive rain overnight. A few storms could linger into Monday
morning before quiet weather returns through the rest of the
extended forecast.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Severe weather will increase from west to east this evening
including the potential for very heavy rainfall. The greatest risk
will be very large hail initially along with a tornado threat
especially with the more discrete cells that form along the
Interstate 44 corridor. Several clusters of severe storms are
expected to develop and move east and south across the remainder
of the area late this evening into the overnight hours Sunday. The
greatest risk of flash flooding will be where storms track across
areas that previously saw heavy rainfall.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1211 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     Flash Flood      Raiford                 35.27N 95.78W
09/23/2023                   McIntosh           OK   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency management reported a foot and a
            half of water over the roadway in the
            Raiford area.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

OKZ071-073-240600-
Pittsburg OK-McIntosh OK-
1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN MCINTOSH AND WESTERN
PITTSBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM CDT...

At 1219 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 7 miles south of Hoffman to 3 miles north of
Scipio to 3 miles west of Stuart. Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Mcalester...                      Eufaula...
Krebs...                          Kiowa...
Savanna...                        Crowder...
Canadian...                       Indianola...
Hanna...                          Ashland...
Stidham...                        Raiford...
Haywood...                        Vivian...
Arrowhead State Park...           Mcalester Regional Airport...
Scipio...                         Arpelar...
Vernon...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 244 and
250.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southeastern and northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 9609 3515 9598 3538 9592 3538 9588
      3546 9587 3547 9584 3536 9553 3494 9568
      3468 9595 3468 9608 3470 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 305DEG 15KT 3538 9584 3510 9594 3489 9616

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

69

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1224 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     Flash Flood      Okmulgee                35.62N 95.96W
09/23/2023                   Okmulgee           OK   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous roads and underpasses flooded in
            Okmulgee including high water rescues. Photo
            via social media.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1226 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

OKZ065-066-240615-
Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-
1226 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL OKMULGEE AND
OKFUSKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM CDT...

At 1226 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
north of Paden, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okemah...                         Okfuskee...
Boley...                          Paden...
Bearden...                        Castle...
Clearview...                      Welty...
Pharoah...                        Mason...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 212 and
231.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 9662 3564 9608 3537 9609 3529 9634
      3529 9640 3530 9644 3546 9644 3546 9647
      3543 9650 3543 9652 3546 9654 3544 9657
      3541 9654 3539 9654 3541 9658 3540 9660
      3540 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 294DEG 30KT 3555 9655

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

ARZ001-OKZ063-240630-
Benton AR-Delaware OK-
1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BENTON AND EAST
CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM CDT...

At 1228 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Maysville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Rogers...                         Bentonville...
Bella Vista...                    Gentry...
Gravette...                       Decatur...
Highfill...                       Springtown...
Maysville...                      Northwest Arkansas Regional Air...
Hiwasse...                        Miller...
Centerton...                      Vaughn...
Healing Springs...                Rocky Comfort...
Cherokee City...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 88 and 93.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northwestern Arkansas...and northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3650 9411 3621 9427 3633 9471
      3651 9466 3651 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 282DEG 16KT 3641 9460

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

ARZ001-OKZ063-240600-
Benton AR-Delaware OK-
1228 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BENTON AND EAST
CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM CDT...

At 1228 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Maysville, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bella Vista...                    Gravette...
Decatur...                        Maysville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northwestern Arkansas...and northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3650 9438 3629 9436 3632 9467
      3650 9468 3651 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 266DEG 9KT 3642 9459

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH