Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Tulsa, OK

102 
WGUS74 KTSA 240331 RRA
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1031 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

OKC121-240500-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-230924T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pittsburg OK-
1031 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT 
FOR NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG COUNTY...

At 1031 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain 
have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Quinton...                         Crowder...
Canadian...                        Indianola...
Arrowhead State Park...            Blocker...
Featherston...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 9535 3503 9582 3518 9586 3519 9578
      3518 9576 3519 9575 3521 9545 3520 9546
      3516 9545 3516 9538

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

24

302 
WGUS54 KTSA 240444
FFWTSA
OKC121-240800-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FF.W.0027.000000T0000Z-230924T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1144 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northeastern Pittsburg County in southeastern Oklahoma...

* Until 300 AM CDT.

* At 1144 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 4 and 5 inches of rain 
  have fallen based on radar estimates. Any ongoing Flash flooding 
  will be slow to subside as additional rainfall moves across the 
  area early Sunday morning.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Quinton...                         Crowder...
  Canadian...                        Indianola...
  Arrowhead State Park...            Blocker...
  Featherston...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 9535 3503 9582 3518 9586 3519 9578
      3518 9576 3519 9575 3521 9545 3520 9546
      3516 9545 3516 9538

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

24

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
656 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Isolated convection has recently developed across NE OK in a
corridor of prefrontal mid level warm advection. While these
storms are likely rooted above the boundary layer per the 19z
KOUN sounding, steep lapse rates and sufficient shear is available
to support a severe potential with large hail the initial concern.
Should convection continue to foster within this pre frontal
corridor the chances of more surface based storms will increase
along with a corresponding uptick in severe potential. The more
probable scenario is additional storms initiate ahead of the cold
front across far NE OK and southern KS by late afternoon and
quickly become severe as the full instability / shear profile can
be realized. Initial supercell storms will have slower storm
motions as low level shear increases and cell interaction along
with a growing cold pool will become more probable. The result is
likely to be a steady upscale growth into severe storm clusters
with a window for all severe hazards along with an increasing
flood threat. The storm complex will spread east and southeast
through the evening and overnight hours. The trend will be toward
more of a flooding risk, however a risk of strong downbursts may
continue into the overnight hours as the shallow moisture profiles
allow aggressive downdrafts. The consensus for the heavier
rainfall footprint is slightly eastward through tonight and the
flood watch has been expanded accordingly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Storms will likely be ongoing early Sunday but in a weakened state
across SE OK into western AR. The progression of the associated
outflow boundary will be an important feature regarding additional
storm develop later in the day Sunday through Sunday night. As
another mid level influences the region late Sunday storms will
develop and strengthen along and especially south of the outflow
boundary. There is potential for another round of heavy rain
across SE OK through Sunday night and this area may require a
flood watch as trends become more clear. Precip should be ending
from north to south through the day Monday with dry weather and
warm temperatures then set to prevail for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Thunderstorms increasing in coverage across eastern OK expected to
form into one or more clusters and move east and south through the
evening eventually impacting KMLC and AR terminals. Sufficient
instability for tempo group to include IFR conditions and gusty
winds in excess of 30kt as main convective cluster moves through.
Expect storms to clear northeast OK sites after 05Z but linger in
AR and at KMLC through 11Z. Low clouds will spread in behind
convective activity as frontal boundary slowly sinks south across
the area with MVFR conditions likely. CLoud may break or rise to
VFR during the afternoon but confidence low at best in timing. Late
afternoon storms may start near KMLC but left mention out of TAF
for now with uncertainty in timing and recovery of airmass in wake
of morning activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  82  63  86 /  80  30  30   0
FSM   72  84  69  87 / 100  70  60  30
MLC   71  87  66  86 /  80  60  60  20
BVO   64  83  57  86 /  80  20  10   0
FYV   65  82  61  84 / 100  60  50  20
BYV   66  81  61  81 /  90  60  40  20
MKO   68  81  64  84 /  90  50  40  10
MIO   66  81  59  83 /  90  30  20   0
F10   67  82  63  83 /  80  50  40  10
HHW   72  87  67  84 /  70  70  80  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-055>058-060>063-
     067>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
547 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
547 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...Severe weather likely this evening with the threat for
flash flooding into the overnight hours...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
    ONSET...early evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread thunderstorms will develop along an advancing cold
front across northeast into central Oklahoma this evening. The
activity will move east into northwest Arkansas and the southeast
portion of Oklahoma by midnight. Sufficient instability and wind
shear will be present for all forms of severe weather with very
large hail being the most likely threat. A tornado or two will be
possible early this evening as more discrete storms form along the
front and southward along a pre-frontal trough. As the intense
complex of storms slowly moves east late this evening through the
early morning hours Sunday, the potential for damaging winds and flash
flooding will increase. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches will be possible through Sunday morning with locally higher
totals approaching 5 inches possible.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY THROUGH Friday...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the frontal boundary across southeast Oklahoma into west-
central Arkansas during the afternoon Sunday. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms however a
limited tornado threat will also exist. A flash flood watch may be
needed across southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas
especially where new thunderstorms overlap areas that receive
excessive rain overnight. A few storms could linger into Monday
morning before quiet weather returns through the rest of the
extended forecast.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Severe weather will increase from west to east this evening
including the potential for very heavy rainfall. The greatest risk
will be very large hail initially along with a tornado threat
especially with the more discrete cells that form along the
Interstate 44 corridor. Several clusters of severe storms are
expected to develop and move east and south across the remainder
of the area late this evening into the overnight hours Sunday. The
greatest risk of flash flooding will be where storms track across
areas that previously saw heavy rainfall.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
836 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

OKZ058-240200-
Ottawa OK-
836 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY
THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 836 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Wyandotte, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wyandotte...                      Twin Bridges State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3667 9462 3667 9477 3683 9482 3688 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 256DEG 48KT 3676 9471

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
838 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

OKZ063-240215-
Delaware OK-
838 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL DELAWARE COUNTY THROUGH
915 PM CDT...

At 838 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Chloeta, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Jay...                            Chloeta...
Dodge...                          Zena...
Lake Eucha State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3636 9460 3631 9500 3650 9500
      3660 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 250DEG 33KT 3642 9496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
840 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Chouteau                36.19N 95.34W
09/23/2023                   Mayes              OK   Emergency Mngr

            Power pole damaged near W570 and S428 Roads.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
845 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

OKZ060-064-066-070-240215-
Tulsa OK-Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Creek OK-
845 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CREEK...OKMULGEE...
NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND SOUTH CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM
CDT...

At 845 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles northwest of Bald Hill to 4 miles south
of Beggs to 3 miles northeast of Slick. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okmulgee...                       Morris...
Beggs...                          Mounds...
Boynton...                        Slick...
Preston...                        Bald Hill...
Okmulgee State Park...            Liberty...
Jamesville...                     Hectorville...
Eram...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 195 and 198.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3591 9637 3592 9591 3588 9582 3586 9582
      3586 9577 3570 9556 3555 9574 3555 9618
      3564 9619 3564 9623
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 291DEG 16KT 3577 9591 3569 9608 3583 9624

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
847 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Flash Flood      Beggs                   35.74N 96.07W
09/23/2023                   Okmulgee           OK   Trained Spotter

            Street flooding in Beggs.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
849 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

OKZ054-055-060-240215-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Washington OK-
849 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES THROUGH 915
PM CDT...

At 849 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 6 miles
west of Skiatook, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and dime size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Owasso...                         Skiatook...
Collinsville...                   Sperry...
Vera...                           Turley...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3642 9581 3642 9579 3640 9579 3639 9581
      3625 9581 3624 9582 3626 9617 3644 9617
      3648 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 268DEG 30KT 3635 9608

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH