Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Tulsa, OK

612 
WGUS74 KTSA 240557
FFSTSA

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1257 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

OKC077-121-240745-
/O.CON.KTSA.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-230924T0745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Latimer OK-Pittsburg OK-
1257 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 AM CDT EARLY THIS 
MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LATIMER AND CENTRAL PITTSBURG COUNTIES...

At 1257 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 4 inches of rain 
have fallen according to radar estimates. Any ongoing flooding will 
be slow to subside as additional rainfall moves into the area.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Mcalester...                       Wilburton...
Hartshorne...                      Krebs...
Alderson...                        Mcalester Regional Airport...
Robbers Cave State Park...         Damon...
Haileyville...                     Dow...
Gowen...                           Bache...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 9579 3503 9582 3505 9535 3482 9528

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

24

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
938 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity continues in
strongly unstable pre-frontal airmass across eastern Oklahoma.
Weaker activity within a warm advection regime is starting to
spread into northwest Arkansas as well. Storms are starting to
cluster south of the Tulsa area where some excessive rainfall has
been observed on radar with estimates in the 3-4 inch range over
the past six hours from around Mounds to east of Okmulgee. Another
area with 3-4 inches amounts mostly from a lone supercell earlier
in the afternoon extends from Henrietta to Crowder. Meanwhile the
synoptic front continues to push south across southeast Kansas
into central Oklahoma. Convection has been slow to develop
southward along the front but this could change as stronger mid
level forcing begins to encroach on the area. No changes needed to
the current forecast or ongoing headlines with storms expected to
continue spreading southeast and east across the remainder of
southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas through the evening
with more development along the cold front as it moves toward the
I-40 corridor through sunrise Sunday. Instability and shear
parameters will remain favorable for occasional severe storms with
large hail and damaging winds the main threat along with
torrential rainfall. Expect the severe watch to be extended
shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Isolated convection has recently developed across NE OK in a
corridor of prefrontal mid level warm advection. While these
storms are likely rooted above the boundary layer per the 19z
KOUN sounding, steep lapse rates and sufficient shear is available
to support a severe potential with large hail the initial concern.
Should convection continue to foster within this pre frontal
corridor the chances of more surface based storms will increase
along with a corresponding uptick in severe potential. The more
probable scenario is additional storms initiate ahead of the cold
front across far NE OK and southern KS by late afternoon and
quickly become severe as the full instability / shear profile can
be realized. Initial supercell storms will have slower storm
motions as low level shear increases and cell interaction along
with a growing cold pool will become more probable. The result is
likely to be a steady upscale growth into severe storm clusters
with a window for all severe hazards along with an increasing
flood threat. The storm complex will spread east and southeast
through the evening and overnight hours. The trend will be toward
more of a flooding risk, however a risk of strong downbursts may
continue into the overnight hours as the shallow moisture profiles
allow aggressive downdrafts. The consensus for the heavier
rainfall footprint is slightly eastward through tonight and the
flood watch has been expanded accordingly.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Storms will likely be ongoing early Sunday but in a weakened state
across SE OK into western AR. The progression of the associated
outflow boundary will be an important feature regarding additional
storm develop later in the day Sunday through Sunday night. As
another mid level influences the region late Sunday storms will
develop and strengthen along and especially south of the outflow
boundary. There is potential for another round of heavy rain
across SE OK through Sunday night and this area may require a
flood watch as trends become more clear. Precip should be ending
from north to south through the day Monday with dry weather and
warm temperatures then set to prevail for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Thunderstorms increasing in coverage across eastern OK expected to
form into one or more clusters and move east and south through the
evening eventually impacting KMLC and AR terminals. Sufficient
instability for tempo group to include IFR conditions and gusty
winds in excess of 30kt as main convective cluster moves through.
Expect storms to clear northeast OK sites after 05Z but linger in
AR and at KMLC through 11Z. Low clouds will spread in behind
convective activity as frontal boundary slowly sinks south across
the area with MVFR conditions likely. CLoud may break or rise to
VFR during the afternoon but confidence low at best in timing. Late
afternoon storms may start near KMLC but left mention out of TAF
for now with uncertainty in timing and recovery of airmass in wake
of morning activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  82  63  86 /  80  30  30   0
FSM   72  84  69  87 / 100  70  60  30
MLC   71  87  66  86 /  80  60  60  20
BVO   64  83  57  86 /  80  20  10   0
FYV   65  82  61  84 / 100  60  50  20
BYV   66  81  61  81 /  90  60  40  20
MKO   68  81  64  84 /  90  50  40  10
MIO   66  81  59  83 /  90  30  20   0
F10   67  82  63  83 /  80  50  40  10
HHW   72  87  67  84 /  70  70  80  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-055>058-060>063-
     067>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
547 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
547 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...Severe weather likely this evening with the threat for
flash flooding into the overnight hours...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
    ONSET...early evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northeast Oklahoma.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Widespread thunderstorms will develop along an advancing cold
front across northeast into central Oklahoma this evening. The
activity will move east into northwest Arkansas and the southeast
portion of Oklahoma by midnight. Sufficient instability and wind
shear will be present for all forms of severe weather with very
large hail being the most likely threat. A tornado or two will be
possible early this evening as more discrete storms form along the
front and southward along a pre-frontal trough. As the intense
complex of storms slowly moves east late this evening through the
early morning hours Sunday, the potential for damaging winds and flash
flooding will increase. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches will be possible through Sunday morning with locally higher
totals approaching 5 inches possible.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY THROUGH Friday...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop
along the frontal boundary across southeast Oklahoma into west-
central Arkansas during the afternoon Sunday. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threat with these storms however a
limited tornado threat will also exist. A flash flood watch may be
needed across southeast Oklahoma into west-central Arkansas
especially where new thunderstorms overlap areas that receive
excessive rain overnight. A few storms could linger into Monday
morning before quiet weather returns through the rest of the
extended forecast.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Severe weather will increase from west to east this evening
including the potential for very heavy rainfall. The greatest risk
will be very large hail initially along with a tornado threat
especially with the more discrete cells that form along the
Interstate 44 corridor. Several clusters of severe storms are
expected to develop and move east and south across the remainder
of the area late this evening into the overnight hours Sunday. The
greatest risk of flash flooding will be where storms track across
areas that previously saw heavy rainfall.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1108 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

OKZ066-070-240445-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-
1108 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN OKMULGEE AND
NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 PM CDT...

At 1108 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
northwest of Bald Hill, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okmulgee...                       Haskell...
Boynton...                        Bald Hill...
Liberty...                        Jamesville...
Hectorville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 9597 3586 9565 3584 9564 3579 9564
      3578 9562 3565 9563 3568 9598
TIME...MOT...LOC 0408Z 271DEG 23KT 3577 9589

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1109 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

ARZ001-OKZ063-240445-
Benton AR-Delaware OK-
1109 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BENTON AND CENTRAL
DELAWARE COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 PM CDT...

At 1109 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Chloeta, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Jay...                            Maysville...
Chloeta...                        Dodge...
Zena...                           Lake Eucha State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northwestern Arkansas...and northeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3650 9457 3630 9457 3635 9500
      3653 9500 3657 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0409Z 271DEG 23KT 3645 9493

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1123 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

OKZ064-065-240515-
Okfuskee OK-Creek OK-
1123 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CREEK AND
NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 AM CDT...

At 1122 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
southwest of Stroud, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bristow...                        Depew...
Slick...                          Welty...
Milfay...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 195.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 9662 3589 9623 3556 9624 3562 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 278DEG 24KT 3573 9671

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

69

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ESE Indianola         35.15N 95.74W
09/23/2023                   Pittsburg          OK   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous trees down. Barn destroyed.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1147 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 PM     Hail             7 N Mcalester           35.03N 95.77W
09/23/2023  E2.00 inch       Pittsburg          OK   Trained Spotter

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1147 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

OKZ065-066-071-073-240515-
Pittsburg OK-Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-McIntosh OK-
1147 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN MCINTOSH...NORTHWESTERN
PITTSBURG...SOUTH CENTRAL OKMULGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES
THROUGH 1215 AM CDT...

At 1147 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 2 miles south of Dewar to near Dustin. Movement
was southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Eufaula...                        Henryetta...
Dewar...                          Indianola...
Grayson...                        Hanna...
Hoffman...                        Stidham...
Raiford...                        Vivian...
Vernon...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 236 and
251.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 9598 3554 9587 3532 9556 3501 9582
      3515 9600 3515 9598 3529 9598 3529 9615
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 296DEG 31KT 3543 9593 3527 9606

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

69