Tornado Warning 40, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

005 
WWUS52 KTBW 121552
SVSTBW

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
1152 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

FLC057-101-103-121602-
/O.EXP.KTBW.TO.W.0040.000000T0000Z-231012T1600Z/
Pasco FL-Pinellas FL-Hillsborough FL-
1152 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN PASCO...NORTHWESTERN PINELLAS
AND NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM EDT for west central
Florida.

LAT...LON 2820 8263 2810 8249 2791 8281 2798 8291
      2802 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 1552Z 233DEG 36KT 2808 8271 

$$

TBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
817 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

The threat for severe weather continues through mid-day as an area
of low pressure moves into the Florida panhandle. A number of
supercells have been observed overnight moving across nearshore Gulf
waters and adjacent coastal areas. As the low continues the ENE
propagation, this favorable axis continues to translate eastward
with it, keeping the FL peninsula in a region where additional
storms are possible. The primary concern is for tornadoes, followed
by damaging wind gusts, and heavy rainfall. The storm system is also
creating dangerous marine conditions, high surf and rip currents,
along with the potential for minor coastal flooding.

As the low pulls away later today and tonight, the severe threat
will diminish. However, additional moisture and instability will
linger into Friday. Rounds of showers and possibly thunderstorms
will continue into the weekend in response.

Another cold front arrives this weekend, finally clearing things out
and ushering back in another round of cooler and drier weather for
the start of the week. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday all have
daytime highs forecast in the  low-to-mid 70s with overnight lows
Tuesday night into Wednesday looking like the coolest in the upper
40s north to around 60 degrees south. This will be a nice change of
pace after the last couple days.

Thereafter, the winds will veer back easterly and conditions will
once again moderate. A gradual return to warmer and more humid
conditions is expected thereafter. Overall, should be a beautiful,
mild week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 812 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Another round of showers and storms are expected to push through
the area today with north TAF sites expected to see more of the
activity with VCTS for a good portion of the morning and afternoon
hours. Winds will remain gusty throughout the day with gust up to
30 knots possible out of the south. MVFR and IFR CIGS will also be
possible tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Hazardous marine conditions continue as elevated winds create
elevated seas that are dangerous for small craft. Even as winds and
seas subside , showers and thunderstorms continue across coastal
waters into the weekend, with locally hazardous conditions possible
in the vicinity. Another cold front will push through late in the
weekend, with higher winds and seas returning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

No concerns into the weekend as ample moisture continues to support
rounds of showers and storms. Cooler and drier air will filter in
over the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  80  88  78 /  70  50  40  20
FMY  89  80  90  79 /  50  30  50  20
GIF  88  78  89  75 /  80  50  60  20
SRQ  89  80  89  78 /  70  40  50  20
BKV  87  77  88  73 /  90  40  40  10
SPG  87  78  86  78 /  70  40  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-
     Coastal Pasco-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
721 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

FLZ142-242-121145-
Coastal Citrus FL-Inland Citrus FL-
721 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CITRUS COUNTY THROUGH
745 AM EDT...

At 721 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Crystal River Airport, or 8 miles northwest of Homosassa Springs,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Beverly Hills, Homosassa Springs, Crystal River Airport, Black
Diamond, Inverness Highlands North, Homosassa, Hernando, Arbor Lakes,
Citronelle, Crystal Manor, Crystal Oaks, River Lakes Manor, Citrus
Springs, Pine Ridge, Citrus Hills, Brent Wood, and Lecanto.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM EDT for central and
west central Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 2904 8254 2904 8251 2905 8247 2904 8245
      2902 8243 2893 8229 2891 8227 2878 8268
      2892 8279
TIME...MOT...LOC 1121Z 240DEG 36KT 2888 8267

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TBW