Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
300 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

The threat for severe weather continues through mid-day as an area
of low pressure moves into the Florida panhandle. A number of
supercells have been observed overnight moving across nearshore Gulf
waters and adjacent coastal areas. As the low continues the ENE
propagation, this favorable axis continues to translate eastward
with it, keeping the FL peninsula in a region where additional
storms are possible. The primary concern is for tornadoes, followed
by damaging wind gusts, and heavy rainfall. The storm system is also
creating dangerous marine conditions, high surf and rip currents,
along with the potential for minor coastal flooding.

As the low pulls away later today and tonight, the severe threat
will diminish. However, additional moisture and instability will
linger into Friday. Rounds of showers and possibly thunderstorms
will continue into the weekend in response.

Another cold front arrives this weekend, finally clearing things out
and ushering back in another round of cooler and drier weather for
the start of the week. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday all have
daytime highs forecast in the  low-to-mid 70s with overnight lows
Tuesday night into Wednesday looking like the coolest in the upper
40s north to around 60 degrees south. This will be a nice change of
pace after the last couple days.

Thereafter, the winds will veer back easterly and conditions will
once again moderate. A gradual return to warmer and more humid
conditions is expected thereafter. Overall, should be a beautiful,
mild week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Scattered convection will continue overnight into Thursday morning
causing some MVFR/local IFR conditions with areas of MVFR ceilings
in the moist airmass across the region. More convection is expected
this afternoon, mainly at the central Florida TAF sites of TPA, PIE,
LAL, and SRQ with MVFR/local IFR conditions possible. Southeast to
south winds at 10 to 15 knots with some gusts to around 25 knots
will increase to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots mid-
morning Thursday through the afternoon hours. Winds will be erratic
within any convection and could gust to 35 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Hazardous marine conditions continue as elevated winds create
elevated seas that are dangerous for small craft. Even as winds and
seas subside , showers and thunderstorms continue across coastal
waters into the weekend, with locally hazardous conditions possible
in the vicinity. Another cold front will push through late in the
weekend, with higher winds and seas returning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

No concerns into the weekend as ample moisture continues to support
rounds of showers and storms. Cooler and drier air will filter in
over the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  81  88  78 /  80  40  40  20
FMY  89  81  90  79 /  60  30  50  20
GIF  88  77  89  75 /  80  50  60  20
SRQ  89  79  89  78 /  80  40  50  20
BKV  88  76  88  73 /  80  40  40  10
SPG  86  80  86  78 /  70  40  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this
     afternoon for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Flannery
AVIATION...Close

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
207 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     Waterspout       3 NNW Belleair          27.98N 82.84W
10/12/2023                   GMZ853             FL   Public

            Mutiple social media videos and pictures
            show a waterspout just off Clearwater Beach.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

ARF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
225 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NNW Belleair          27.98N 82.83W
10/12/2023  M41 MPH          GMZ853             FL   Buoy

            Buoy station CWBF1 Clearwater Beach Pier 60.

&&

ARF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
230 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 W Crystal River       28.90N 82.65W
10/12/2023  M42 MPH          Citrus             FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 0212W 2.9 W Crystal River
            (WEATHERSTEM).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
235 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 AM     Tornado          2 SE Crystal River      28.88N 82.58W
10/12/2023                   Citrus             FL   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency management reported a tornado at
            US-19 and W Ford Island Tr. Roof damage and
            powerlines have been reported down in the
            vicinity. Time estimated from radar.

&&

ARF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
238 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 AM     Tornado          3 WSW Dunedin           28.00N 82.83W
10/12/2023                   Pinellas           FL   Emergency Mngr

            FDEM reports damage in N Clearwater Beach
            from tornado. Time estimated by radar.

&&

ARF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
307 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     Tornado          2 E Crystal River       28.90N 82.57W
10/12/2023                   Citrus             FL   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency management reports debris blocking
            the roadway on Hwy 44 in Citrus County. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

ARF