Alert archive / Florida / Tornado Watches in 2023

Tornado Watch 707

October 12, 202333 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 12, 2023, 12:49 AM EDT for 33 counties in Florida. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 12, 2023, 12:49 AM EDT (04:49 UTC)
Expired: Oct 12, 2023, 9:00 AM EDT
In force: 8 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 0.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 55 kt

All 33 counties

Alachua County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Citrus County, FL, Clay County, FL, Columbia County, FL, Dixie County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Hardee County, FL, Hernando County, FL, Hillsborough County, FL, Lafayette County, FL, Lake County, FL, Levy County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Marion County, FL, Orange County, FL, Osceola County, FL, Pasco County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Polk County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Saint Johns County, FL, Sarasota County, FL, Seminole County, FL, Sumter County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Union County, FL, Volusia County, FL, Wakulla County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 147 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 10%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 20%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 5%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 40%

Warnings issued inside it

34 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 12, 1:01 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TBW	Levy	44 min
Oct 12, 1:41 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	TBW	Hillsborough, Pasco, Pinellas	34 min
Oct 12, 1:46 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	TBW	Citrus, Hernando, Sumter	44 min
Oct 12, 1:52 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAX	Flagler, Saint Johns	41 min
Oct 12, 1:58 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	TBW	Hernando, Pasco	32 min
Oct 12, 2:02 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	JAX	Saint Johns	23 min
Oct 12, 2:13 AM EDT	Tornado Warning Tornado observed	TBW	Hernando, Pasco	32 min
Oct 12, 2:33 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	TBW	Citrus	13 min
Oct 12, 2:37 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	JAX	Marion	23 min
Oct 12, 2:44 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	TBW	Hernando, Pasco	31 min
Oct 12, 2:58 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	JAX	Marion	33 min
Oct 12, 3:12 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	TBW	Hernando, Sumter	22 min
Oct 12, 3:15 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	TBW	Citrus	30 min
Oct 12, 3:18 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	TBW	Hernando, Pasco, Sumter	27 min
Oct 12, 3:31 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAX	Marion	29 min
Oct 12, 3:32 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	TBW	Levy	28 min
Oct 12, 4:01 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TBW	Sumter	12 min
Oct 12, 4:06 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	MLB	Lake	24 min
Oct 12, 4:20 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAX	Flagler, Putnam	25 min
Oct 12, 4:26 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	MLB	Lake, Volusia	34 min
Oct 12, 4:40 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAX	Flagler	20 min
Oct 12, 4:56 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	MLB	Volusia	49 min
Oct 12, 5:06 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAX	Alachua, Marion	24 min
Oct 12, 5:34 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	TBW	Citrus, Levy	26 min
Oct 12, 5:56 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	JAX	Marion	17 min
Oct 12, 6:41 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	JAX	Flagler, Marion, Putnam	34 min
Oct 12, 7:00 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	JAX	Saint Johns	15 min
Oct 12, 7:17 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	JAX	Marion, Putnam	28 min
Oct 12, 7:31 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	TBW	Citrus	29 min
Oct 12, 7:36 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	JAX	Flagler, Putnam	24 min
Oct 12, 7:55 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	JAX	Flagler	21 min
Oct 12, 8:04 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	TBW	Citrus	11 min
Oct 12, 8:08 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	JAX	Marion	22 min
Oct 12, 8:30 AM EDT	Tornado Warning	JAX	Marion	15 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 00:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 553 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -26 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 922 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 154 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 213 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 5.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 11, 10:40 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Charlotte, Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco and 2 more	95 min
Oct 12, 12:23 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alachua, Bradford, Citrus, DeSoto, Dixie, Gilchrist and 18 more	2 hr
Oct 12, 2:45 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alachua, Citrus, Flagler, Hernando, Lake, Marion and 3 more	2 hr
Oct 12, 5:07 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lake, Marion, Orange and 5 more	113 min
Oct 12, 8:09 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Alachua, Brevard, Citrus, Dixie, Flagler, Gilchrist and 14 more	96 min
Oct 12, 8:48 AM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Alachua, Baker, Bradford, Citrus, Clay, Columbia and 22 more	6 hr
Oct 12, 11:53 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Hillsborough, Pinellas	2 hr
Oct 12, 2:12 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Citrus, Flagler, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lake, Marion and 7 more	93 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Florida, 2023 Every tornado watch in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.