Tornado Warning 30, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

707 
WWUS52 KTBW 120646
SVSTBW

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL
246 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

FLC017-120655-
/O.CAN.KTBW.TO.W.0030.000000T0000Z-231012T0700Z/
Citrus FL-
246 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL CITRUS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 AM EDT for central and
west central Florida.

LAT...LON 2905 8248 2905 8247 2904 8245 2901 8242
      2902 8240 2900 8238 2900 8236 2899 8236
      2898 8232 2896 8231 2888 8243 2896 8254
TIME...MOT...LOC 0645Z 224DEG 28KT 2903 8236 

$$

TBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
830 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue to develop and
move north across the area this evening. As the night progresses
we'll see convective coverage increase across the Nature Coast
south into the central Florida peninsula as upper level energy and
instability move into the region, while convection remains
scattered across southwest Florida. This pattern will persist
through Thursday morning, then we'll see the main area of
convection begin to shift south during the afternoon as the
shortwave energy moves by to the north. Overall the current
forecast looks ok, but may adjust PoPs some to reflect current
thinking.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 830 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Scattered convection early tonight will become more numerous after
midnight through early afternoon Thursday around the Tampa Bay
TAF sites of TPA, PIE, LAL, and SRQ. Convection should remain
mainly scattered across southwest Florida. MVFR/local IFR
conditions are expected within the convection and some areas of
MVFR ceilings will be possible later tonight into Thursday morning
the moist airmass across the area. Otherwise mainly VFR
conditions are expected. Southeast to south winds will increase
overnight to 10 to 15 knots with some gusts to around 25 knots and
then increase to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots
mid- morning Thursday through the afternoon hours. Winds will be
erratic within any convection and could gust to 35 knots later
tonight and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023

We will be looking at some unsettled weather for the next few days
with possible severe weather overnight and early tomorrow
morning. First lets talk about what is setting all this up. We
will have a low pressure system pushing through Florida just north
of our area. This will increase our moisture and help to bring a
few rounds of shower and storms across the area. Thanks to the
moisture and heat return we will see a more typically pop up
showers and storms across the area this evening.

Overnight we will see the low pressure itself passing north of the
area through the Panhandle and southern Georgia. This will bring
another round of showers and storms and its this round we are
concerned about when it come to severe weather. Our concern is high
winds and the possibility for tornadoes. Looking at sample forecast
soundings along the coast for the HRRR we are seeing backing winds
at the surface and higher values for 0-1km SRH which in turn is
giving us high STP values overnight between 06z and 12z. However we
also have PWs at 2.5 and CAPE values not to impressive. So we
know storms will be spinning but will they be able to reach the
ground.

After that the front that is associated with the low pressure system
will stall over the area. Severe weather risk will be much lower but
weather will continue to be unsettled through the rest of the week
with scattered showers and storms through the afternoon and evening
both Thursday and Friday.

Next weekend will be much like last weekend. Saturday will be warm
and humid with a cold front pushing through. A few showers will be
possible but chances will be lower compared to the end of the week.
For Sunday cooler and drier air will start to filter in bringing in
pleasant weather once again.

Early next week we will see dry but below average temperatures. We
could see widespread low 60's and upper 50's in the morning with
highs staying in the 70's.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023
A strong south to southwest flow will cause hazardous marine
conditions over the Gulf and coastal waters tonight into tomorrow.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will impact waters
now through Thursday, some storms may be severe with damaging winds
and possible waterspouts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Wed Oct 11 2023
No fire weather concerns through the weekend as RH values remain
well above criteria. Strong to severe thunderstorms expected through

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  87  80  88 /  80  80  30  50
FMY  80  90  80  90 /  80  50  20  40
GIF  76  88  77  89 /  90  80  40  70
SRQ  78  88  79  89 /  80  70  30  50
BKV  74  87  76  89 /  80  80  30  60
SPG  78  87  80  86 /  80  70  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday
     evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal
     Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal
     Hillsborough-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Close
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1251 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     Funnel Cloud     4 E Holiday             28.19N 82.68W
10/12/2023                   Pasco              FL   Trained Spotter

            Funnel cloud spotted crossing SR 64 at
            Little Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1253 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     Funnel Cloud     4 E Holiday             28.19N 82.68W
10/12/2023                   Pasco              FL   Trained Spotter

            Corrects previous funnel cloud report from 4
            E Holiday. Funnel cloud spotted crossing SR
            54 at Little Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
207 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     Waterspout       3 NNW Belleair          27.98N 82.84W
10/12/2023                   GMZ853             FL   Public

            Mutiple social media videos and pictures
            show a waterspout just off Clearwater Beach.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

ARF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
225 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0148 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NNW Belleair          27.98N 82.83W
10/12/2023  M41 MPH          GMZ853             FL   Buoy

            Buoy station CWBF1 Clearwater Beach Pier 60.

&&

ARF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
230 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 W Crystal River       28.90N 82.65W
10/12/2023  M42 MPH          Citrus             FL   Mesonet

            Mesonet station 0212W 2.9 W Crystal River
            (WEATHERSTEM).

&&