Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
151 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing moisture, and the approach of a front from the Ohio
Valley, will result in a a chance for thunderstorms this
afternoon into tonight. The overall weather pattered favors
scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

    Isolated severe storms possible later this afternoon into
tonight...

Main focus continues to be the threat of strong to isolated severe
convective development later this afternoon into tonight as an upper
disturbance pushes eastward across the TN and Ohio valleys ahead of
a frontal boundary. CAMs lack some consensus on coverage though
mostly agree on some initial triggering along the Blue Ridge earlier
this afternoon, which are starting to see signs of in recent radar
analysis, then a bit more organized cluster of storms by this
evening into the overnight. RAP progged SBCAPE looks to be in the
2500-3000 J/kg range for much of the area and with marginal deep
layer bulk shear of about 30-35 kts some isolated severe development
is possible with the main threat of strong to damaging wind.
Downdrafts could be aided by hydrometeor loading with increasing
PWATs of 1.75-2 inches as moisture advection kicks in from the SW.
Heavy rainfall from efficient precip producers and an isolated
flooding threat will also be possible especially if there are some
training storms which may occur given not much directional shear.

Some patchy or areas of fog may develop late tonight into Friday
morning especially where any low level moisture is increased from
what convection occurs late today/tonight and if winds lax.

Friday afternoon could have a bit more instability present, though
the bulk shear looks a bit less or more confined to the eastern CWA.
Will advertise some decent chance to likely pops for scattered
shower and storm potential with a few strong to severe possible but
not as great of a threat as today.

Forecast confidence is medium to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

     Scattered showers and storms possible for the weekend
with the greater chance Saturday...

We should see a diminishing trend to convection Friday night as the
front and moisture axis pushes southward, though this axis looks to
have a northward surge ahead of the next amplifying shortwave set to
influence the area Saturday afternoon into night. Have increasing
pops accordingly. As the moisture and instability could be more
limited for Sunday with the progression of the cold front, the upper
trough axis remains west of the area so we could still have weak
upper forcing to aid any diurnally driven convection and am
advertising mainly general chance pops.

Max temps for the weekend look to be generally near climo norms,
then a bit cooler in the mountains for Sunday as the aforementioned
front pushes eastward.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1130 AM EDT Thursday...

Confidence is moderate for increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms towards the middle of the week.

The overall synoptic pattern throughout this week will feature a
large upper level ridge in the southwestern United States and
ongoing troughs moving across southeastern Canada and the Great
Lakes. The Mid Atlantic will thus reside in a persistent west to
northwest flow aloft. With a cold front departing offshore on
Monday, that day appears to be the driest of this week as weak high
pressure crosses the Appalachian Mountains. However, another cold
front should approach by Tuesday to bring increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms. The frontal boundary could stall across
southwest Virginia on Wednesday and linger into Thursday, which
would keep conditions unsettled with daily chances of
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...

Afternoon cu field near 3-5 kft with showers and thunderstorms
that could continue into the overnight. Could have reduced vsbys
and VRB gusts with any storms. Late tonight into Friday
morning, there could be some fog development and further reduced
vsbys along with cigs lowering to IFR or possibly lower. Cigs
could have improvement after about 15z though may linger in the
MVFR zone. Winds generally west to SW under 10 kts and some
sites could go light to calm tonight/Friday morning.

Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The weather pattern favors mainly afternoon and evening
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Fog
development is also possible each morning through the weekend
and into early next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMG/AB
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG/AB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
219 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

WVZ042>044-507-508-141830-
Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
219 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with the main
threat being damaging winds. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heavy rain from thunderstorms may result in localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
141830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
219 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with the main
threat being damaging winds. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heavy rain from thunderstorms may result in localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
231 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

VAZ024-131845-
Rockbridge VA-
231 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
central Rockbridge County, the City of Buena Vista and the City of
Lexington through 245 PM EDT...

At 231 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lexington, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington...
Buena Vista...
and Cornwall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 7949 3775 7958 3789 7938 3779 7928
      3768 7935
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 242DEG 22KT 3774 7949

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
246 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

VAZ024-131900-
Rockbridge VA-
246 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
central Rockbridge County, the City of Buena Vista and the City of
Lexington through 300 PM EDT...

At 245 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lexington, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington...
Buena Vista...
Cornwall...
and Fairfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3781 7920 3780 7922 3781 7923 3779 7926
      3779 7927 3778 7927 3776 7929 3770 7940
      3777 7955 3792 7936
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 242DEG 20KT 3778 7941

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

DS

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
251 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

VAZ033-131915-
Franklin VA-
251 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
northwestern Franklin County through 315 PM EDT...

At 251 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Callaway, or near Copper Hill, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Callaway.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 8010 3707 8012 3707 8011 3708 8011
      3714 7997 3701 7993
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 248DEG 17KT 3705 8006

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
300 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

VAZ020-131915-
Bath VA-
300 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
southeastern Bath County through 315 PM EDT...

At 300 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Nimrod Hall, or near Warm Springs, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Millboro...
and Nimrod Hall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
southeastern West Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3801 7955 3789 7964 3796 7980 3804 7977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 297DEG 18KT 3798 7973

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

DS