Alert archive / Virginia / Flash Flood Warnings in 2023
Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Blacksburg, VA
NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this flash flood warning at Jul 13, 2023, 6:30 PM EDT for 5 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 10 hr. 8 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 13, 2023, 6:30 PM EDT (22:30 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 14, 2023, 4:26 AM EDT
- In force
- 10 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Blacksburg, VA
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Campbell County, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 105 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 7:10 PM EDT | FLOOD | 2 Ene Forest, VA | Individual reports that there was significant flooding on Graves Mill Road in Forest VA. Cars were becoming stuck in the water. Some became stranded in high water. Others were able to make it through. |
| Jul 13, 7:15 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 1 Wsw Lynchburg City, VA | Fort Avenue closed due to high water between Kenyon and Wadsworth Street. |
| Jul 13, 7:59 PM EDT | FLOOD | 4 N Spring Mills, VA | Water over roadway. Roadway flooded in the 10800 block of Beeks Road near Spout Springs VA. |
| Jul 13, 8:00 PM EDT | RAIN 5.02 | 1 Wsw Lynchburg City, VA | Rainfall measured at Television Station WSET in Lynchburg. |
| Jul 13, 8:34 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 2 Ssw Lynchburg City, VA | WSET reported flash flooding along Fort Avenue in Lynchburg. Numerous cars under water with over six inches of water flowing over the road and parking lots in the area. |
| Jul 13, 8:44 PM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 3 Ene Bocock, VA | Campbell County 911 reports that Moores County Store in Concord is flooded. Three to four feet of water was flowing through the store and the adjacent portion of Richmond Highway (U.S. 460). Cars in the area were stranded and unable to turn around. VDOT has cl |
| Jul 13, 8:46 PM EDT | RAIN 3.6 | 3 Nw Lynchburg City, VA | |
| Jul 13, 10:30 PM EDT | RAIN 6 | 1 Wsw Lynchburg City, VA | Measured at WSET Television Studios in Lynchburg. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 3 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 45 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 35 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 28 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -252 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1049 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 106 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 102 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
891
WGUS51 KRNK 132230
FFWRNK
VAC009-011-019-031-680-140230-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FF.W.0006.230713T2230Z-230714T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
630 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023
The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
South Central Amherst County in central Virginia...
Southwestern Appomattox County in central Virginia...
Northeastern Campbell County in central Virginia...
The City of Lynchburg in central Virginia...
Northeastern Bedford County in south central Virginia...
* Until 1030 PM EDT.
* At 630 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 4 and 6 inches of rain
have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected
to begin shortly.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Radar.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Lynchburg... Rustburg...
Concord... Forest...
Bocock... Madison Heights...
Timberlake...
This includes the following locations...
Liberty University and Lynchburg Airport.
This includes the following streams and drainages...
Carters Creek, Falling River, Elk Creek, Burton Creek, Beaverpond
Branch, Buffalo Creek, Bear Creek, Chestnut Branch, Blackwater
Creek, Dreaming Creek and Buttom Creek.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.
&&
LAT...LON 3750 7938 3747 7919 3747 7916 3738 7900
3737 7898 3726 7880 3718 7891 3729 7917
3739 7935 3749 7946 3750 7947
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
$$
DB/PH7 follow-up statements
500
WGUS71 KRNK 132357
FFSRNK
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
757 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023
VAC009-011-019-031-680-140230-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230714T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Amherst VA-Appomattox VA-Bedford VA-Campbell VA-City of Lynchburg VA-
757 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AMHERST, SOUTHWESTERN APPOMATTOX,
NORTHEASTERN CAMPBELL AND NORTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES AND THE CITY
OF LYNCHBURG...
At 757 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 4 and 6 inches of rain have
fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in
the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Radar.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage and low-lying areas.
Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Lynchburg... Rustburg...
Concord... Forest...
Bocock... Madison Heights...
Timberlake...
This includes the following locations...
Liberty University and Lynchburg Airport.
This includes the following streams and drainages...
Carters Creek, Falling River, Elk Creek, Burton Creek, Beaverpond
Branch, Buffalo Creek, Bear Creek, Chestnut Branch, Blackwater
Creek, Dreaming Creek and Buttom Creek.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.
Additional statements will be issued as conditions warrant.
&&
LAT...LON 3750 7938 3747 7919 3747 7916 3738 7900
3737 7898 3726 7880 3718 7891 3729 7917
3739 7935 3749 7946 3750 7947
FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
$$
DB861
WGUS71 KRNK 140104
FFSRNK
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
904 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023
VAC009-011-019-031-680-140230-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230714T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Amherst VA-Appomattox VA-Bedford VA-Campbell VA-City of Lynchburg VA-
904 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AMHERST, SOUTHWESTERN APPOMATTOX,
NORTHEASTERN CAMPBELL AND NORTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES AND THE CITY
OF LYNCHBURG...
At 904 PM EDT, trained weather spotters reported thunderstorms
producing heavy rain in the City of Lynchburg and along US 460.
Several roads in the area are closed with 4 to 5 feet of water
flowing over them. Between 4 and 6 inches of rain have fallen.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the
warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
flash flooding.
SOURCE...Trained spotters reported.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Lynchburg... Rustburg...
Concord... Forest...
Bocock... Madison Heights...
Timberlake...
This includes the following locations...
Liberty University and Lynchburg Airport.
This includes the following streams and drainages...
Carters Creek, Falling River, Elk Creek, Burton Creek, Beaverpond
Branch, Buffalo Creek, Bear Creek, Chestnut Branch, Blackwater
Creek, Dreaming Creek and Buttom Creek.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.
&&
LAT...LON 3750 7938 3747 7919 3747 7916 3738 7900
3737 7898 3726 7880 3718 7891 3729 7917
3739 7935 3749 7946 3750 7947
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
$$
DB834
WGUS51 KRNK 140219
FFWRNK
VAC009-011-019-031-680-140530-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230714T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1019 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023
The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
South Central Amherst County in central Virginia...
Southwestern Appomattox County in central Virginia...
Northeastern Campbell County in central Virginia...
The City of Lynchburg in central Virginia...
Northeastern Bedford County in south central Virginia...
* Until 130 AM EDT.
* At 1019 PM EDT, trained weather spotters reported thunderstorms
producing heavy rain in the City of Lynchburg and along US 460.
Several roads in the area are closed with 4 to 5 feet of water
flowing over them. Between 4 and 6 inches of rain have fallen. The
expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 2 hours. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area.
Flash flooding is already occurring.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.
SOURCE...Trained spotters reported.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Lynchburg... Rustburg...
Concord... Forest...
Bocock... Madison Heights...
Timberlake...
This includes the following locations...
Liberty University and Lynchburg Airport.
This includes the following streams and drainages...
Falling River, Beaverpond Branch, Dreaming Creek, Buffalo Creek,
Bear Creek, Chestnut Branch, Blackwater Creek, Buttom Creek, Elk
Creek, Carters Creek and Burton Creek.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.
&&
LAT...LON 3750 7938 3747 7919 3747 7916 3738 7900
3737 7898 3726 7880 3718 7891 3729 7917
3739 7935 3749 7946 3750 7947
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 2 HOURS
$$
SH715
WGUS71 KRNK 140416
FFSRNK
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1216 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023
VAC009-011-019-031-680-140530-
/O.CON.KRNK.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230714T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Amherst VA-Appomattox VA-Bedford VA-Campbell VA-City of Lynchburg VA-
1216 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AMHERST, SOUTHWESTERN APPOMATTOX,
NORTHEASTERN CAMPBELL AND NORTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTIES AND THE CITY
OF LYNCHBURG...
At 1216 AM EDT, trained weather spotters reported thunderstorms
producing heavy rain in the City of Lynchburg and along US 460.
Several roads in the area are closed with 4 to 5 feet of water
flowing over them. Between 4 and 6 inches of rain have fallen.
Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the
warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
flash flooding.
SOURCE...Trained spotters reported.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Lynchburg... Rustburg...
Concord... Forest...
Bocock... Madison Heights...
Timberlake...
This includes the following locations...
Liberty University and Lynchburg Airport.
This includes the following streams and drainages...
Falling River, Beaverpond Branch, Dreaming Creek, Buffalo Creek,
Bear Creek, Chestnut Branch, Blackwater Creek, Buttom Creek, Elk
Creek, Carters Creek and Burton Creek.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.
&&
LAT...LON 3750 7938 3747 7919 3747 7916 3738 7900
3737 7898 3726 7880 3718 7891 3729 7917
3739 7935 3749 7946 3750 7947
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
$$
SH733
WGUS51 KRNK 140517
FFWRNK
VAC009-011-019-031-680-140700-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230714T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
117 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023
The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
South Central Amherst County in central Virginia...
Southwestern Appomattox County in central Virginia...
Northeastern Campbell County in central Virginia...
The City of Lynchburg in central Virginia...
Northeastern Bedford County in south central Virginia...
* Until 300 AM EDT.
* At 117 AM EDT, Trained weather spotters reported thunderstorms
producing heavy rain in the City of Lynchburg and along US 460.
Several roads in the area are closed with 4 to 5 feet of water
flowing over them. Between 4 and 6 inches of rain have fallen. The
expected rainfall rate is 1 to 2 inches in 2 hours. Flash flooding
is already occurring.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.
SOURCE...Trained spotters reported.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Lynchburg... Rustburg...
Concord... Forest...
Bocock... Madison Heights...
Timberlake...
This includes the following locations...
Liberty University and Lynchburg Airport.
This includes the following streams and drainages...
Falling River, Bear Creek, Buttom Creek, Dreaming Creek, Burton
Creek, Carters Creek, Elk Creek, Buffalo Creek, Blackwater Creek,
Chestnut Branch and Beaverpond Branch.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.
&&
LAT...LON 3750 7938 3747 7919 3747 7916 3738 7900
3737 7898 3726 7880 3718 7891 3729 7917
3739 7935 3749 7946 3750 7947
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...1-2 INCHES IN 2 HOURS
$$
VFJ773
WGUS51 KRNK 140634
FFWRNK
VAC009-011-019-031-680-140900-
/O.EXT.KRNK.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230714T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
234 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023
The National Weather Service in Blacksburg has extended the
* Flash Flood Warning for...
South Central Amherst County in central Virginia...
Southwestern Appomattox County in central Virginia...
Northeastern Campbell County in central Virginia...
The City of Lynchburg in central Virginia...
Northeastern Bedford County in south central Virginia...
* Until 500 AM EDT.
* At 234 AM EDT, trained weather spotters reported thunderstorms
producing heavy rain in the City of Lynchburg and along US 460.
Several roads in the area are closed with 4 to 5 feet of water
flowing over them. Between 5 and 7 inches of rain have fallen.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the
warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.
HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
producing flash flooding.
SOURCE...Trained spotters reported.
IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Lynchburg... Rustburg...
Concord... Forest...
Bocock... Madison Heights...
Timberlake...
This includes the following locations...
Liberty University and Lynchburg Airport.
This includes the following streams and drainages...
Falling River, Bear Creek, Buttom Creek, Dreaming Creek, Burton
Creek, Carters Creek, Elk Creek, Buffalo Creek, Blackwater Creek,
Chestnut Branch and Beaverpond Branch.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of flooding,
including mudslides or flooded roads, to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports
and pictures can also be shared on the National Weather Service
Blacksburg Facebook page and on Twitter.
&&
LAT...LON 3750 7938 3747 7919 3747 7916 3738 7900
3737 7898 3726 7880 3718 7891 3729 7917
3739 7935 3749 7946 3750 7947
FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
$$
VFJ384
WGUS71 KRNK 140826
FFSRNK
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
426 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023
VAC009-011-019-031-680-140836-
/O.CAN.KRNK.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-230714T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Amherst VA-Appomattox VA-Bedford VA-Campbell VA-City of Lynchburg VA-
426 AM EDT Fri Jul 14 2023
...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AMHERST,
SOUTHWESTERN APPOMATTOX, NORTHEASTERN CAMPBELL AND NORTHEASTERN
BEDFORD COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG...
The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.
LAT...LON 3750 7938 3747 7919 3747 7916 3738 7900
3737 7898 3726 7880 3718 7891 3729 7917
3739 7935 3749 7946 3750 7947
$$
VFJWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 13, 1:51 PM EDT, 4 hours 39 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 1:51 PM EDT, 4 hours 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
151 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing moisture, and the approach of a front from the Ohio
Valley, will result in a a chance for thunderstorms this
afternoon into tonight. The overall weather pattered favors
scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...
Isolated severe storms possible later this afternoon into
tonight...
Main focus continues to be the threat of strong to isolated severe
convective development later this afternoon into tonight as an upper
disturbance pushes eastward across the TN and Ohio valleys ahead of
a frontal boundary. CAMs lack some consensus on coverage though
mostly agree on some initial triggering along the Blue Ridge earlier
this afternoon, which are starting to see signs of in recent radar
analysis, then a bit more organized cluster of storms by this
evening into the overnight. RAP progged SBCAPE looks to be in the
2500-3000 J/kg range for much of the area and with marginal deep
layer bulk shear of about 30-35 kts some isolated severe development
is possible with the main threat of strong to damaging wind.
Downdrafts could be aided by hydrometeor loading with increasing
PWATs of 1.75-2 inches as moisture advection kicks in from the SW.
Heavy rainfall from efficient precip producers and an isolated
flooding threat will also be possible especially if there are some
training storms which may occur given not much directional shear.
Some patchy or areas of fog may develop late tonight into Friday
morning especially where any low level moisture is increased from
what convection occurs late today/tonight and if winds lax.
Friday afternoon could have a bit more instability present, though
the bulk shear looks a bit less or more confined to the eastern CWA.
Will advertise some decent chance to likely pops for scattered
shower and storm potential with a few strong to severe possible but
not as great of a threat as today.
Forecast confidence is medium to high.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...
Scattered showers and storms possible for the weekend
with the greater chance Saturday...
We should see a diminishing trend to convection Friday night as the
front and moisture axis pushes southward, though this axis looks to
have a northward surge ahead of the next amplifying shortwave set to
influence the area Saturday afternoon into night. Have increasing
pops accordingly. As the moisture and instability could be more
limited for Sunday with the progression of the cold front, the upper
trough axis remains west of the area so we could still have weak
upper forcing to aid any diurnally driven convection and am
advertising mainly general chance pops.
Max temps for the weekend look to be generally near climo norms,
then a bit cooler in the mountains for Sunday as the aforementioned
front pushes eastward.
Forecast confidence is high.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1130 AM EDT Thursday...
Confidence is moderate for increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms towards the middle of the week.
The overall synoptic pattern throughout this week will feature a
large upper level ridge in the southwestern United States and
ongoing troughs moving across southeastern Canada and the Great
Lakes. The Mid Atlantic will thus reside in a persistent west to
northwest flow aloft. With a cold front departing offshore on
Monday, that day appears to be the driest of this week as weak high
pressure crosses the Appalachian Mountains. However, another cold
front should approach by Tuesday to bring increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms. The frontal boundary could stall across
southwest Virginia on Wednesday and linger into Thursday, which
would keep conditions unsettled with daily chances of
convection.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...
Afternoon cu field near 3-5 kft with showers and thunderstorms
that could continue into the overnight. Could have reduced vsbys
and VRB gusts with any storms. Late tonight into Friday
morning, there could be some fog development and further reduced
vsbys along with cigs lowering to IFR or possibly lower. Cigs
could have improvement after about 15z though may linger in the
MVFR zone. Winds generally west to SW under 10 kts and some
sites could go light to calm tonight/Friday morning.
Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
The weather pattern favors mainly afternoon and evening
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Fog
development is also possible each morning through the weekend
and into early next week.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...BMG/AB
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG/ABHazardous weather outlook, Jul 13, 2:19 PM EDT, 4 hours 11 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 219 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 WVZ042>044-507-508-141830- Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 219 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with the main threat being damaging winds. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Heavy rain from thunderstorms may result in localized flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk. NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- 141830- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes- Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson- Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge- Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell- Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte- 219 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with the main threat being damaging winds. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Heavy rain from thunderstorms may result in localized flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 13, 6:06 PM EDT, 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
606 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023
VAZ023-024-132230-
Botetourt VA-Rockbridge VA-
606 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
southwestern Rockbridge and east central Botetourt Counties through
630 PM EDT...
At 605 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springwood, or near Eagle Rock, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Natural Bridge.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3759 7974 3765 7974 3771 7954 3755 7954
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 268DEG 15KT 3762 7969
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
DSLocal storm report, Jul 13, 6:08 PM EDT, 22 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
608 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0604 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 NE Lynchburg Airport 37.35N 79.17W
07/13/2023 City of Lynchburg VA Broadcast Media
Tree down across both lanes of U.S. 460W
between Odd Fellows and Candlers Mountain
Road exits. There was also a car with a
broken windshield on the shoulder just past
the tree.
&&
RABSpecial weather statement, Jul 13, 6:09 PM EDT, 21 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
609 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023
VAZ045-046-132230-
Campbell VA-Appomattox VA-
609 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
southwestern Appomattox and northeastern Campbell Counties through
630 PM EDT...
At 609 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spring Mills, or near Concord, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Appomattox...
Concord...
Mike...
Spout Spring...
and Spring Mills.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poo!** weakened.r
drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.
&&
LAT...LON 3723 7904 3735 7904 3739 7884 3719 7883
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 268DEG 15KT 3729 7897
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
DSLocal storm report, Jul 13, 6:14 PM EDT, 16 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
614 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0356 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Covington City 37.79N 79.98W
07/13/2023 City of Covington VA 911 Call Center
trees down.
0340 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 NNE Callaghan 37.82N 80.07W
07/13/2023 Alleghany VA 911 Call Center
trees down.
&&Local storm report, Jul 13, 6:28 PM EDT, 2 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
628 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0617 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 4 S Spout Spring 37.30N 78.91W
07/13/2023 Appomattox VA 911 Call Center
Tree down on a power line and the adjacent
power pole was on fire.
&&
RABSpecial weather statement, Jul 13, 6:30 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
630 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023
VAZ018-023-024-034-035-132300-
Botetourt VA-Amherst VA-Craig VA-Bedford VA-Rockbridge VA-
630 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of
east central Craig, southwestern Rockbridge, northern Bedford,
Botetourt and west central Amherst Counties through 700 PM EDT...
At 630 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Snowden to near New Castle. Movement was
east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Amherst...
Buchanan...
Glasgow...
Troutville...
New Castle...
Big Island...
and Fincastle.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
southeastern West Virginia.
&&
LAT...LON 3757 7901 3736 7986 3754 8020 3768 7951
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 275DEG 12KT 3759 7945 3749 8004
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SHThe office that day
Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2:31 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington | 14 min |
| Jul 13, 2:46 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington | 14 min |
| Jul 13, 2:51 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Franklin | 24 min |
| Jul 13, 3:00 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Bath | 15 min |
| Jul 13, 3:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Franklin | 42 min |
| Jul 13, 3:18 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Carroll | 4 hr |
| Jul 13, 3:31 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Amherst, City of Lynchburg | 29 min |
| Jul 13, 3:38 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Amherst, Bedford, Campbell, City of Lynchburg | 52 min |
| Jul 13, 3:43 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Alleghany, Botetourt, City of Covington | 47 min |
| Jul 13, 3:50 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | City of Galax | 25 min |
| Jul 13, 4:02 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Alleghany, City of Covington | 3 hr |
| Jul 13, 4:18 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | City of Buena Vista | 27 min |
| Jul 13, 4:20 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Bath | 25 min |
| Jul 13, 4:31 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Alleghany, Bath | 44 min |
| Jul 13, 4:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Campbell, City of Lynchburg | 39 min |
| Jul 13, 4:38 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Botetourt | 22 min |
| Jul 13, 4:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Alleghany, Bath, Rockbridge, City of Lexington | 51 min |
| Jul 13, 5:04 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Amherst | 26 min |
| Jul 13, 5:07 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Montgomery | 38 min |
| Jul 13, 5:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Craig, Montgomery, Roanoke | 63 min |
| Jul 13, 5:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Bedford, Botetourt, Rockbridge | 48 min |
| Jul 13, 5:14 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Appomattox, Campbell | 46 min |
| Jul 13, 5:17 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Buckingham | 28 min |
| Jul 13, 5:19 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Amherst, Appomattox, Bedford, Campbell, City of Lynchburg | 3 hr |
| Jul 13, 5:37 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | RNK | Bedford, Botetourt, Rockbridge | 3 hr |
| Jul 13, 5:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Amherst, Bedford, Campbell, City of Lynchburg | 43 min |
| Jul 13, 6:04 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Grayson | 26 min |
| Jul 13, 6:06 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Botetourt | 24 min |
| Jul 13, 6:09 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Appomattox | 21 min |
| Jul 13, 6:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Amherst, Appomattox, Campbell, City of Lynchburg | 34 min |
| Jul 13, 6:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Carroll, Grayson, City of Galax | 20 min |
| Jul 13, 6:30 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Botetourt | 30 min |
| Jul 13, 6:35 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Alleghany | 40 min |
| Jul 13, 6:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Appomattox, Campbell, Charlotte | 61 min |
| Jul 13, 7:29 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | City of Lynchburg | 31 min |
| Jul 13, 7:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Alleghany, Bath | 56 min |
| Jul 13, 7:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Amherst, Appomattox, Buckingham, Campbell, City of Lynchburg | 64 min |
| Jul 13, 7:51 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | RNK | Bedford, Campbell | 24 min |
| Jul 13, 7:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Alleghany, Amherst, Bath, Botetourt, Craig, Rockbridge and 3 more | 46 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Virginia, 2023Every flash flood warning in 2023
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.