Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
151 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing moisture, and the approach of a front from the Ohio
Valley, will result in a a chance for thunderstorms this
afternoon into tonight. The overall weather pattered favors
scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

    Isolated severe storms possible later this afternoon into
tonight...

Main focus continues to be the threat of strong to isolated severe
convective development later this afternoon into tonight as an upper
disturbance pushes eastward across the TN and Ohio valleys ahead of
a frontal boundary. CAMs lack some consensus on coverage though
mostly agree on some initial triggering along the Blue Ridge earlier
this afternoon, which are starting to see signs of in recent radar
analysis, then a bit more organized cluster of storms by this
evening into the overnight. RAP progged SBCAPE looks to be in the
2500-3000 J/kg range for much of the area and with marginal deep
layer bulk shear of about 30-35 kts some isolated severe development
is possible with the main threat of strong to damaging wind.
Downdrafts could be aided by hydrometeor loading with increasing
PWATs of 1.75-2 inches as moisture advection kicks in from the SW.
Heavy rainfall from efficient precip producers and an isolated
flooding threat will also be possible especially if there are some
training storms which may occur given not much directional shear.

Some patchy or areas of fog may develop late tonight into Friday
morning especially where any low level moisture is increased from
what convection occurs late today/tonight and if winds lax.

Friday afternoon could have a bit more instability present, though
the bulk shear looks a bit less or more confined to the eastern CWA.
Will advertise some decent chance to likely pops for scattered
shower and storm potential with a few strong to severe possible but
not as great of a threat as today.

Forecast confidence is medium to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Thursday...

     Scattered showers and storms possible for the weekend
with the greater chance Saturday...

We should see a diminishing trend to convection Friday night as the
front and moisture axis pushes southward, though this axis looks to
have a northward surge ahead of the next amplifying shortwave set to
influence the area Saturday afternoon into night. Have increasing
pops accordingly. As the moisture and instability could be more
limited for Sunday with the progression of the cold front, the upper
trough axis remains west of the area so we could still have weak
upper forcing to aid any diurnally driven convection and am
advertising mainly general chance pops.

Max temps for the weekend look to be generally near climo norms,
then a bit cooler in the mountains for Sunday as the aforementioned
front pushes eastward.

Forecast confidence is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1130 AM EDT Thursday...

Confidence is moderate for increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms towards the middle of the week.

The overall synoptic pattern throughout this week will feature a
large upper level ridge in the southwestern United States and
ongoing troughs moving across southeastern Canada and the Great
Lakes. The Mid Atlantic will thus reside in a persistent west to
northwest flow aloft. With a cold front departing offshore on
Monday, that day appears to be the driest of this week as weak high
pressure crosses the Appalachian Mountains. However, another cold
front should approach by Tuesday to bring increasing chances of
showers and thunderstorms. The frontal boundary could stall across
southwest Virginia on Wednesday and linger into Thursday, which
would keep conditions unsettled with daily chances of
convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...

Afternoon cu field near 3-5 kft with showers and thunderstorms
that could continue into the overnight. Could have reduced vsbys
and VRB gusts with any storms. Late tonight into Friday
morning, there could be some fog development and further reduced
vsbys along with cigs lowering to IFR or possibly lower. Cigs
could have improvement after about 15z though may linger in the
MVFR zone. Winds generally west to SW under 10 kts and some
sites could go light to calm tonight/Friday morning.

Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The weather pattern favors mainly afternoon and evening
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Fog
development is also possible each morning through the weekend
and into early next week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BMG/AB
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG/AB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
219 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

WVZ042>044-507-508-141830-
Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
219 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with the main
threat being damaging winds. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heavy rain from thunderstorms may result in localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
141830-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
219 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening, with the main
threat being damaging winds. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized
flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heavy rain from thunderstorms may result in localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by
phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at
rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
606 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

VAZ023-024-132230-
Botetourt VA-Rockbridge VA-
606 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
southwestern Rockbridge and east central Botetourt Counties through
630 PM EDT...

At 605 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springwood, or near Eagle Rock, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Natural Bridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 7974 3765 7974 3771 7954 3755 7954
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 268DEG 15KT 3762 7969

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

DS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
608 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Lynchburg Airport  37.35N 79.17W
07/13/2023                   City of Lynchburg  VA   Broadcast Media

            Tree down across both lanes of U.S. 460W
            between Odd Fellows and Candlers Mountain
            Road exits. There was also a car with a
            broken windshield on the shoulder just past
            the tree.

&&

RAB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
609 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

VAZ045-046-132230-
Campbell VA-Appomattox VA-
609 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of
southwestern Appomattox and northeastern Campbell Counties through
630 PM EDT...

At 609 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spring Mills, or near Concord, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Appomattox...
Concord...
Mike...
Spout Spring...
and Spring Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poo!** weakened.r
drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 7904 3735 7904 3739 7884 3719 7883
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 268DEG 15KT 3729 7897

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

DS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
614 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Covington City          37.79N 79.98W
07/13/2023                   City of Covington  VA   911 Call Center

            trees down.

0340 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNE Callaghan         37.82N 80.07W
07/13/2023                   Alleghany          VA   911 Call Center

            trees down.

&&